When will Southwest relent on insane summer fares? (Answer: June 3, 2016)
 

I've been watching Southwest's intra-California fares for mid-June through late August. They are still stratospheric: $113 to $123 even for the most off-peak flights. Clearly these fares are a placeholder until Southwest decides what the market will bear this summer. The market will not fill short off-peak flights at minimum fares over $100.

We are now six weeks from the June 15 low-fare horizon, which is also the horizon for my advance bookings. This is the shortest my reservation backlog has been in 18 years.

Sometime in the next two and a half weeks I expect Southwest to offer something better. If not, at $123 I'll switch the Spirit and save $50. Or I will try to redeem Avios on Alaska or American. I resent being taken advantage of. Southwest flights are great, but not at $50 more than the competition for a 1-hour trip.

I'm not being a smart-... when I ask the question. Are you talking 1-way or round trip.

From MDW, to short haul Midwest ( STL or MCI mostly for me ) summer fares are basically $100 each way ( way more than in the past ). But American and United are even more than that.

And the rental cars and hotels have become so outrageous that the airfare seems inconsequential.

1 way. The highest I've paid in past years is $79 for a few weeks that never had a better price. $123 is crazy, especially at current fuel prices.

Drive, and forget it...

What do you want a free ride..

If the price is not fair, do not pay it...

Let the market decide...some want a free ride, do not blame them...

The market price will prevail, but I am certain that $123 is not the market price for 3-week advance purchase off-peak flights within California. It has never been the market price before. Not even close. Market price for such flights is $65 to $79, IMHO. I believe that Southwest will make less money if it holds the current prices through the summer.

Does anyone want to bet that Southwest will not go below $100 for summer fares intra-California?

Load factors are high. With the possible exception of a summer sale, I don't see fares decreasing anytime soon.

Is third party selling a coming attraction? Southwest flight data and fares appear on Skyscanner and other travel agent res systems. They went 5 rounds with Orbitz to prevent that.

I know some travelers who have flown Spirit and would beg to give Southwest an extra $50 for their next trip. ;)

But even Spirit has "big front seats." Southwest has peanuts (literally).

It's not just the Cali fares - try running some random fares - they are in excess of $300 one way. This is insane pricing for flying WN. Are the two bags of peanuts really worth these prices?

Load factors are high because fares through mid-June are reasonable. Current summer fares are about 67% higher! Load factors will plummet at those fares.

I want to believe that's true.

I've been with SWA since Herb but I have been flying more and more with Spirit, Frontier, and JetBlue as Southwest's prices have soared with few decent sales. I'm on a Spirit trip now and continue to be impressed with improvements to their aircraft and service. Too bad Southwest has priced itself so high with the occasional exception of a highly competitive route.

I'm waiting as well. I can normally get fares AUS-SJC for $129 each way, and I've been looking every day for 3 months and they haven't dropped below $170.

I know others who will never go back

As do I. Insane 4 hour delays seem to be the par on Spirit.