6P&E

For the Southeast, I'd bet on ATL. And if it's between ATL and CLT, I think the former has it hands down

GSO is very unlikely. I would have thought WN would have gone with GSO over RDU when they first went into NC over 10 years ago as it was well-placed to draw from Charlotte and the Triangle for those willing to drive.

RIC is awfully close to ORF and MIA seems much too close to FLL.

CHS is interesting to ponder.

rtalk25

True. MIA is ground shuttle distance to FLL, and its a short shuttle distance. MIA is better suited for int'l connections. While its likely a hassle to land at FLL, then take a shuttle to MIA, if one is traveling beyond for an int'l flight, I think the demand for flying an alternate carrier to start out of MIA for that reason is likely low. For most that are heading to vacation there, it's a matter of getting a rental car from FLL.

As for ATL vs. CLT, I think ATL and CLT are separated far enough, that servicing one shouldn't affect the possibility of servicing the other.

JerryFF

If you apply this rule, DSM would be a prime candidate. I just booked about 20 people to a meeting in DSM and the fares were outrageous compared with nearby cities such as OMA or even MLI, where FL flies.

MikeMpls

I would not bet on ATL. DL & Air Tran are already competitive ex-ATL to many major cities.

N830MH

Absolutely not! Because it was too many aircraft due to the congestions. It won't be accepted WN is not served into ATL for quite of long time.

6P&E

Once upon a time I wouldn't have thought that either ATL or CLT would be at the top of WN's list. But in light of LGA, BOS, MKE in the past year, who knows...

Nonetheless, when looking at the two, I still think ATL would have an edge over CLT. ATL is a bigger OD market and more removed from other existing WN airports.

WN's expansions used to be pretty predictable, however.

rtalk25

If we are looking at big congested airports, what about EWR? Here there is no FL presence.

One route that WN could start off could be EWR-RDU, along with maybe EWR-MDW for heading west. Another one would be EWR-CLE. So perhaps, WN having a PHL-PIT in tact, and a EWR-CLE, and both PHL and EWR to RDU and MDW. Those in the New Jersey of the NYC metro don't enjoy heading to LGA, and I doubt enough go to PHL.

N830MH

No, it won't go to EWR. Because it was too many aircraft are awaited for takeoff due to the congestions. This is not specific time go to EWR/JFK. It will have a problems lot of flights will be delayed due to NYC traffic control. I don't think such good idea going to EWR for quite of long time. Because mostly airlines has been already cutbacks the flight to fixed the congestions. It won't be accepted go to EWR or JFK. It was too much pressure the traffic control in NYC areas.

lilj4425

They'll go to GSP over CLT or ATL so they can get traffic from those metro areas. Why go to CLT or ATL when you can locate between the two at GSP? ATL and CLT already have LLC's also.

ElmhurstNick

I'd much rather see WN expand at BOS and MSP first. BOS-PHL and BOS-MSP is an obvious start, and BOS-HOU, BOS-DTW, MSP-PHL, and MSP-LAX all have potential for at least 1x/day.

I really want DCA and ATL, but I don't see those happening. Even though I live in Chicago, I don't like the hubbing of MDW - I'd rather see a little less frequency and a few more destinations. Either DCA or ATL would require 5-7x/day MDW as an absolute requirement, and I just don't think they can do that without taking out nonstop service to places like MHT, PVD, and IND.

Instead, I see them going after the smaller (overstated in importance) hubs: CLT, CVG, and MEM. Personally, I'd fly:
- CLT 3x to BOS, LGA, BWI, and HOU (yes, I'm ignoring MDW - ORD-CLT has never been a big route),
- CVG 5xMDW, 3xBWI, 2xHOU, and
- MEM 3xMDW, 2xPHL, 1xMSY, 1xHOU, 1xLAS

3Cforme

By that logic, Southwest should have gone into Harrisburg (MDT) to tap the PIT and PHL markets.

Entering ATL would be a lot different from tackling US at BWI and PHL as Delta and AirTran have strengths that US lacked.

rtalk25

That's pushing it though. Driving east/west through PA is a lot worse than driving in parts of the Southeast. In PA, there are windier weather conditions, toll road hassle of PA Turnpike, smaller interconnecting highways in PA, and exiting PHL's more urban system.

And airline service in MDT, runs into economic viability issues as BWI isn't that far, as recently seen by FL's decrease in service at MDT. Those in Central PA, esp. York County are accustomed to traveling to Baltimore/BWI with its easier drive access. Straight down I-83 to 695.

From the central to west, MDT to PIT is well over 3 1/2 hours of a drive with the Johnstown-Altoona market in between Pittsburgh and Harrisburg.

Drive time between CLT and GSP is 1 hr.25 mins, and GSP can pick up Columbia SC and Augusta GA markets, which are overlooked. Service from GSPy could chip away pax share (from thoe markets) from ATL. DL and FL automatically assuming those markets belong to ATL but they are easier drive in to GSP than ATL.

6P&E

Once upon a time, part of the fun of speculating on WN expansions was trying to determine what alternate airports would serve to tap larger and therefore more congested markets, i.e. airports. But with WN's entry into BOS and LGA, it is clear that other factors are important in the current expansion.

So does going into GSP because this can draw from ATL, CLT and CAE markets still make sense for WN in a large way? On the other hand, if WN wants to go right into ATL or CLT, are there individual markets from either that are begging for WN fares and service?

mrredskin

Why would ATL area residents go to SAV instead of BHM??

GSP seems to make the most sense based on how far people in the southeast would be willing to drive to catch a lower fare flight

curbcrusher

I don't think we'll see WN go anywhere but ATL if the actual intent is to serve Atlanta. Consider this excerpt from Christine Negroni's excellent Gary Kelly interview from last week:
The game has changed.