Colin

How much longer will SQ choose to offer service between LAX & NRT, SFO & HKG, and NYC & FRA? Is SQ just getting a bit more operational data on the ULR nonstops between SIN & these US airports on the 359s before pulling out on the direct one-stop routes? Is SQ actually making a profit on these fifth freedom US routes?

eponymous_coward

If SQ dropped their fifth freedoms to the US, they would have no F product to the USA, and only Y seats to SEA and SFO- no Y to LAX/NYC. They would also be cutting their capacity big time; there aren’t enough 359 ULHs to backfill losing 2x77W and 1 A380, and their standard longhaul A359 only reaches SEA and SFO (and double dailies for SEA and multiple dailies to SFO might not work out well).

Often1

What possible business reason would SQ have for dropping what are known to be highly-profitable services which generate US$ and brand loyalty?

Colin

NRT fares will collapse w/ pending desirable flight times at HND

FRA fares are frequently a $2Kish deal in J

HKG a mess these days

cmd320

2-3k is the going rate for J fares to most places in Europe with any kind of advance booking. The SQ flight basically competes with only vastly subpar offerings from LH and DL, not to mention the onward traffic to SIN. SQ can sell the flights two ways, either the full trip from JFK to SIN (still a very busy route despite the nonstop from Jersey) and as each individual segment. SQ and EK are always my first choice when traveling to Europe. I’ll happily fly into Frankfurt or Milan and take a train to my final destination (if it isn’t one of those cities) than fly some garbage US or EU product.

Yes there’s the EWR-SIN flight but not only does in not offer F, it also is from EWR, a location many (myself included) shall not visit.

Colin

endstate wiill be double daily NYC-SIN from each port

not much profit in $2K rt J fares to EU

cmd320

You seem to forget there’s also an F and Y class. Also, the A380 offers considerably more premium seats than an A350.

jinrop

Let's not forget the strangest SQ route

Houston to Manchester. On the plus side always lots of award availability on that one lol

Colin

give me 11K on the ULR 359 nonstop, and i’ll turn down a free F upgrade to switch to SQ11 every time

eponymous_coward

And what makes you think you represent the typical US-based SQ F/J pax? Note that all the ULR planes in the SQ fleet realistically can support 3 ULH routes. So SQ is going to remove all F in USA markets and everyone will be happy fighting over all the bulkhead seats in J every day?

You’ve also completely elided the point that this would seriously reduce SQ capacity in US markets: there is no way to replace that 77W/A380 capacity with A359s. SQ sells connecting traffic to SE Asia too. That’s a lot of Y to surrender to BR and CX, and a lot of F to cough up to CX... I bet they’d throw a party if SQ cut their lift to the US by that much. UA is probably happy as well in this hypothetical, more Y traffic flow for them too.

Finally... where are you putting that capacity that is better than the US?

eponymous_coward

delete, duplicate

Colin

you think SQ sells a bunch of high-margin two-stop connecting Y cabin fares to SE Asia? who is this consumer that pays more for that rather than one-stop service on a dozen or so other carriers?

don’t you suppose SQ could add a row of F to ULR 359s over time if the data suggests there is demand?

do you really think there’s long-term profitability at NRT in a desirable-slot HND world?

obviously i’m just a nobody using logic, but my prediction is these “direct” routes end in the not too distant future

eponymous_coward

It’s not a big fleet, having to change things over and take planes out of service stretches it pretty thin. Note that even if this has come to pass you still have basically eviscerated SQ’s ability to offer Y to the USA- you basically have less than two daily A359s worth of coach seats.

Less than 5 daily A359s (SEA below daily, SFO, LAX, EWR, JFK, the latter three in ULH premium heavy config) is shrinking their relevance in the US markets by a lot compared to 1x380, 3x77W, 2x359, 2x359 ULH. That’s what, a thousand seats or so out of the US market daily? And again, in which markets does SQ put those thousand-ish seats?



If it really came down to it, I would expect SQ to switch their fifth freedom to a different city in order to preserve their lift to US markets.



I suppose we will see. It’s always fun playing FlyerTalk’s EVP of Network Planning.

lokijuh

I don’t know the answer, but how much freight does SQ pickup on the one-stop services? Not as capacity limited as the non-stop services.

SilverChris

Of course SQ has the data. Close to a decade of it, at least. After the first attempt with the A345s it’s fair to assume they’ve learned a thing or two about these ULR flights.

If F demand didn’t exist on the nonstops back in 2004-2013, it’s even less likely to exist today. Especially with F in decline across the industry.