Transit from SQ 12 at LAX (separate tix)
 

We're flying NRT to SIN on SQ 12 this winter, currently scheduled to arrive 11.50am. Need to get to SEA on a separate tix, haven't bought LAX-SEA yet. I swore to myself a while ago to never ever do same-day transit on separate tix. But here I am. Couldn't resist the chance to save >$1500 for a party of four.

I'd really like to take the 3.20pm UA flight. Safer options are AA & DL flights that leave at ~5pm, but those are more expensive, longer layover, and plus the only lounge access I have is UA Club which would be difficult to use if flying out of AA/DL terminals (AS is stupendously expensive).

I have Global Entry and UA Premier access. We're flying coach.

The question boils down to:
1).Will SQ 12 likely keep the same schedule, or does SQ tend to fiddle around with flight times?
2).What's the chance that SQ 12 will arrive more than an hour late?

Looking at flightaware, SQ 12 has never arrived >30min late over the past 10 days. However, could that be different in winter?

Base on your experience with SQ12, would you go for the 3.20pm UA flight?
(Based on my conservative estimate, if I were to take the 3.20pm UA flight, we can afford to have SQ12 land up to 70 minutes late.)

I’ve never been delayed arriving into LAX on this, but I have spent 1-2 hours getting through immigration and luggage.

Personally I wouldn’t risk it but if the airline does have other flights, I pay the extra to get on an earlier flight if seats are available. Then again I don’t have any express way of getting through immigration quicker.

if you have global entry you'll be through immigration within 10 minutes of getting to the immigration desks, however you need to build in at least 30 mins of "airside transit" time as you don't know if you'll be at a remote stand or have to walk a sizable distance from the gate to immigration, and then at least another 60-75 minutes to get from TBIT to the other terminal

3:30 is pretty conservative. With GE and Pre, this can easily be done in an hour or less.

It is solely about OP's risk tolerance. Delays are caused by much more than weather. All it takes is a relatively minor mechanical issue and you have no showed for your onwards flight. Personally, I would not want to have to purchase new tickets at walk-up prices if even a 1:100 chance. Others might.

3:30 is probably fine -- I can't speak for SQ12 specifically, but many morning flights into LAX often arrive anywhere from 15-30min early. I suspect the biggest delay will be getting four people through customs and immigration.

there's also a case where United does a schedule change.
(over 30 min = free rebook, over 2 hour = free refund)

EF says SQ12 95% ontime, max delay 71 min (just above OP's limit)
(71 min delay) https://flightaware.com/live/flight/...015Z/RJAA/KLAX

11:50am + delay/taxiing = 1pm. add 30 min for customs + immigration + bags = 1:30pm

10 minute walk from TBIT to T7/8 with luggage, though you have free baggage carts @ TBIT. 5 min bag drop via Premier line = 2pm, then security & walk to gate (2:10pm)

say United shifts it up 30 min = 2:50pm, you need to be there 15min before gate closes = 2:30pm

all this without a potty break. a little rushed for me?

Thanks for all the feedback. Still don't know what to do, but I'm leaning towards being conservative.

I don't recall ever walking more than maybe 5-10min from arrival gate to immigration. Can it take 30min from gate to immigration?!
Once I'm done with customs, it's never taken me more than maybe 25min to go from TBIT to United Club, including security.
On the other hand, I don't know what to expect at the carousel/customs... I can almost guarantee I will be stopped for xray inspection because I have to check "yes" for that stupid food question at the kiosk.


Yes, at the end of the day, this is what it boils down to. I'm not a risk taker.

This is very helpful. Thanks for the SQ 12 data. I did not know about United's rule on the schedule change.
This was how I arrived at 70min. I think it's more or less similar calculation to yours...

SQ 12 scheduled arrival 11.50am
Taxi 0:20
Deplane from Y 0:10
Walk to Immi 0:10
Immi 0:10
Bags/Custom/BagDrop(assume bags checked thru) 0:20
Walk to T7/8 0:15
Security 0:10
70-min pad time for SQ delay / sched change 1:10
30-min pad time for possible UA sched change 0:30
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Will be airside at T7/8 by: 15:05 (15min before UA's scheduled departure)

Do you need to be at the gate 15min before? I thought they close the door 10min till. Well, I guess if we're debating 10min vs 15min, then I should already know that I'm cutting it too close.

Do I assume 6:40am arrival on SQ and 8:20am departure to DCA on DL is not okay?
Travel agent can sell it as a single ticket but she has to override the system to get it to go through.
I wonder if the SQ system at check in at ICN will reject the bag tag.
I have Global Entry, Pre Check and Clear.
Minimum connect time is 2 hours.
What I worry about is a slight Delta change as they seem to happen all the time. Say it goes from 8:20am to 8am then that starts to be a problem. I wonder if SQ, who would have issued the ticket on their stock, would stand behind their schedule change guidelines if the ticket was originally issued in violation of the MCT in the first place.
There are later AA and UA flights but it seems the through D fare ICN-WAS only works with AS and DL.

While OP's post contains many irrelevant points, with more than 3 hours of transit time, OP him/herself should be able to make the transit without issue.

Note:

1. With a party of 4, having GE is practically irrelevant as you have to wait for those without GE.

2. Having UA Premier Access is also irrelevant. First - *G matters more (as it determines how fast the baggage will be offloaded from SQ). Second - although tight, TBIT (after exit) to UA gates within 30 minutes is do-able.

Given part of the point of a single ticket is to be protected for misconnects, it makes no sense to force a connection that violates the minimum connection time. There is a risk of the ticket failing to issue or being cancelled or amended.

10 minutes is Not Possible. It's minimum 15 minutes at a very fast walk with either no luggage or a roller. Most people will do it in 20-25 minutes, depending on how fast they walk and how much luggage they're dragging.

Or they won't let you check-in for the first flight.