CZBB

And WN announced today that it intends to start service to EUG (2021 Q3) and BLI (2021 Q4).
https://www.southwest.com/destinations/route-expansion

Anyone want to guess as to the AS response?

mtofell

Yeah, AS seems to have a pretty good stronghold on many of shorter Pac NW routes. I'm curious... does this mean WN is going to start running smaller planes? I can't imagine it makes sense to fly a 737 in/out of Eugene, OR, etc. I guess the better question would be, is that even possible? AS has a bunch of the smaller planes (Q400, B175) that I'm guessing they picked up from Horizon. Hard to believe WN can compete with their current fleet.

northwesterner

Southwest flies into tons of airports nationwide with a 737 that the major carriers only serve with RJs. They make it work...

jrl767

when we see where WN service will come from, we may be able to make more informed speculations

Chugach

UA already runs mainline to EUG. If it’s a facility question, EUG routinely gets 737 and 757 service in fall for UO and OSU football charters, and can handle larger aircraft if needed. It’s the second largest airport in Oregon by size.

Interesting move by WN, though. I would guess EUG would get DEN and maybe LAS service on WN, but who knows. Definitely came out of left field.

AS is going to have a conniption fit if WN announces ANC during all of this expansion.

CZBB

Rarely (if ever) does WN offer less than 4x daily from an airport, so I have to think that LAS, DEN, OAK, HNL and LAX are probably the top options for WN (I'm looking at it from a BLI perspective). I would expect EUG to be similar, (however I doubt EUG has the O/D potential that BLI does for HNL).

As for ANC, G4 were going to fly BLI-ANC (I think they did for part of 2020), and it does show on their route map, although not bookable at the moment.

AS Flyer

With the dollar being worth more in Canada, and Westjet (and previously Rouge) offering flights from YVR at reasonable prices it started not making sense for Canadians to drive to BLI to get to Hawaii. I could be wrong but I don't think HNL is going to be in the mix for Southwest. Alaska decided it wasn't worth it anymore, as did Allegiant - can't see where Southwest will spend any time on it. I do see LAS, DEN and OAK from both EUG and BLI.

PDXPremier

And HIO (Hillsboro) is the 2nd busiest airport in Oregon so I'm still holding out hope for commercial service (preferably QX) someday....

PDXPremier

If I were AS, I wouldn't be overly concerned....I remember back in the days when the entry of WN really did play a major role in significantly bringing down the fares for the markets it entered and there seemed to be far more direct competition....I still remember the $29-$39 flights on WN from PDX-BOI or GEG....when they entered the Pacific Northwest, it wasn't to fly people from GEG to the East Coast, it was head-to-head competition in Alaska's (and Horizon's) back yard...I could be wrong, but I highly doubt entering the EUG or BLI market means they're going to start flights from EUG/BLI-SEA. There is no way I'm going to take a non-stop flight on WN from EUG-LAS when I can fly AS and get more miles on a traditional, mileage-based frequent flyer program, a confirmed seat assignment, a visit to the Alaska Lounge in PDX/SEA, and the potential for an upgrade.

jrl767

Quote:

Originally Posted by PDXPremier

And HIO (Hillsboro) is the 2nd busiest airport in Oregon so I'm still holding out hope for commercial service (preferably QX) someday....

ah, the eternal optimist
I’m willing to bet that a lot of folks in EUG are a lot more price- and time-sensitive ... those are the pax who WN is chasing

I know this or a similar comment has appeared more than a few times on on the DL board, but I can’t recall seeing it here ... we FTers aren’t really representative of the vast majority of the traveling public

mtofell

This is a great point but there is also a valid counterpoint - I'm now with you. No way I'll be treated like a piece of cattle in a herd to save a few bucks. But I haven't always had this mindset. For years I flew 1X every year or two.... airline loyalty meant nothing. $10 cheaper fare? I'm game. Now, I appreciate the perks, mileage program, seating upgrades, lounge access, etc. that AS provides and WN likely can't or won't.

So, the question is, will enough people take the budget route with WN? Knowing the local area and having two universities near a place like EUG I'd say yes. Hell, those kids would ride on the wing to save $10 to get to the game... or to get home from college or to go party in Vegas or whatever. Does that mean AS is out of business? Of course not. It's just a bit of friendly competition. I'm no economist but it seems like a pretty big commitment/leap of faith to move into these small airports with 150-200 seat planes. If nothing else, the prices should get better. I've been surprised/disappointed at some of the AS fares to/from smaller Pac-NW airports.

PDXpress

I know it's hard to imagine, but there are a lot of people who prefer Southwest. WN isn't generally cheaper, and people choose to fly them anyway. They're not idiots.

I would never take a non-stop flight when I could have a connection is peak Flyertalk. For most people a 1.5 hour nonstop flight always beats a 4+ hour connection. Unless, as in the current case of EUG-LAS, the nonstop is Allegiant in which case, h--- no! Why rag on Southwest when there are truly inferior airlines to rag on?

Tide_from_PAE

It's worth noting as well that WN offers two free checked bags on even the lowest fares. That's very useful for moving to/from school and in other situations. When I was in college, I was one of the few out of state students who didn't exclusively fly WN as the limited SEA-BHM schedule didn't work well with the airport shuttle and the first class upgrades on DL, typically on DC-9s, as an AS elite were very fun.

It's worth noting as well that BLI can also serve much the same market as PAE, especially with Seattle traffic. Everett to SeaTac is ~50 minutes without traffic while BLI is ~75 minutes, which is more than made up by the easier parking situation and shorter security lines. BLI's management was quoted as saying they'll take any service that can't go to PAE because of slot restrictions.

My guess is that BLI will have service to LAS, PHX, DEN, and OAK as that would provide a lot of connection options on the WN network and also covers a lot of G4's routes, many of which were flown for the short-lived reincarnation of Western when it tried a BLI hub about a decade ago. WN could also take over a lot of the gambling charter flights to Reno, Laughlin, and Wendover which are currently operated by Swift Air, but were previously operated by G4.

navydevildoc

My 2 very uninformed cents...

WN will be able to make 737 work into even the smallest stations by maintaining a single type fleet. The *millions* of dollars to even study rolling out a new maintenance, training, certification, and ops plan for a new plane is nothing compared to the cost of actually rolling it out. As strange as it sounds, it's simply cheaper to stick with the 737 fleet even if it means flying them into BLI or EUG.

I also agree that WN and AS are targeting different customers, and their marketing strategy reflects that. AS is the cool, woke, west coast based airline that offers perks from F class to lounges to assigned seats. WN is the "I don't care, I am going to ride the plane to wherever in my sweats because I fly once a year and this was the cheapest ticket and I get free bags" airline. Exceptions to both of course.

People certainly prefer WN in many cases, lots of my friends do. While it's baffling to me, they are loyal and feel connected to the Southwest brand. Personally, you won't find me caught dead in the cattle chute. It's just a different mindset.

Eastbay1K

And how are those lounges treating you @ EUG and BLI?

My WN travels are for convenience. Mostly intra-state between the smaller airports, but I'll take that over adding what could be a couple of hours to a travel day, more likelihood of delays, etc., for a few extra EQMs or the Caviar Cart between Northern and Southern Cal (not to mention the Champagne Bar in the airport lounge). If I want a guaranteed aisle and overhead bin space, I pay the fee. Boarding is civilized. And as far as that goes, pick your livestock. Cattle on WN. Sheep on AS. At least the cattle line up by number. The sheep just flock to the narrow entry point.