DL Fleet Musings
#1
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: MCO
Posts: 3,030
DL Fleet Musings
With all of the changes in the fleet plans, I thought it may be fun to have a consolidated thread for fleet discussion and playing armchair fleet manager. Mods, feel free to correct me if I am wrong. Overall, have been impressed with the hard product DL provides. They have been good at making old planes feel new again. A prime example was flying on a MD-88 with DL where the cabin looked as if it was relatively new and connecting on to a 753 with large IFE screens. This is a direct contrast to flights on other legacy carriers that were dirty with no IFE and loose panels. Each airline has hundreds of planes, so perhaps I just get lucky on DL and unlucky on others. YMMV. Here are some of my thoughts on the DL fleet:
Widebody:
The 777 retirement has a whole thread devoted to it, but I was surprised to learn of its demise. However, with fewer seats and higher operating costs than the A359, it seems like the right plane to eliminate when downsizing. Could the fact that the LR's have GE engines and the ER's have Rolls creating two subfleets been an issue? It may not since DL Techops serves other airlines and may be servicing both engine types anyway.
Since DL has shown they can get the D1 suite in an A330, what is the chance they will be upgrading the current 332 & 333's to have the suite? Some of them are approaching 17-18 years in age, but with the fewer cycles of longhaul, most of them have well more than 50% of their life left. I realize that DL has to squeeze every penny these days, but spending a couple hundred million (only a week of cash burn at today's rate) over a few years to upgrade the fleet and align the products seems like a decent business plan to me. I think product commonality is important which is why I won't buy a seat in J on AF.
Most people seem to like the A359 and it will obviously be a big part of DL's future longhaul product. I don't think I am the only one wondering if they will be removing a row of seats and adding a C+ cabin. In the smaller Y cabin, they could go from 10 rows with 31-32" pitch to 9 rows with 34-35". If they can charge greater than 11% more for the C+, it will be a net increase in revenue. Plus 9 less meals to serve and fewer potential bags to handle. Although, maybe the meal and bag handling cost would be offset by more amenities for C+ over Y.
So what will be happening with the 763ER's? The 763 seats between 208 and 226 and the replacement widebodies on order seat 281 or 306. That is a lot more seats to fill on each flight if they are replaced on a 1 to 1 basis. I can see how they can absorb the extra seats by reducing a frequency for flights from hubs to LON, CDG, or AMS because they have many flights a day. For example, if there are 4 arrivals into AMS from BOS & JFK combined using 763's, there are a total of around 900 seats per day. This could be done with 3 flights with the new Airbus birds. It doesn't seem that difficult to feed more people to BOS or JFK depending on which had the frequency cut. I am not so sure how they absorb the extra seats on routes like ATL-STR or JFK-LIS where they only have one or two flights ex-LIS/STR per day. Is there are good direct replacement for the 763's? How much longer can DL realistically keep flying these aircraft? For the ones delivered in the late 90's It would seem they have another 10 years left, so could those those 763's get the suites like the 764's?
The 764's with the new J cabin seem to have found their niche on the TATL routes that have high J demand.
Narrowbody:
The Mad Dogs also have their own thread, but deserve an honorable mention. DL kept these birds in good shape and I enjoyed flying them. Nice and quiet in the front with the engines and wings so far behind.
I read that they are eliminating the 737-700. For pilot rating and maintenance, it seems to be no different than a 738. So why get rid of it? Since there are only 10 in the fleet, I suppose eliminating it makes it easier for scheduling.
738's and 739's. DL seems to own a lot of them and they are going to keep flying 'em. Fortunately, DL seems to keep them in good conditions.
A319 & A320 are getting old. IIRC, these are ex-NW equipment. It is my understanding these are being replaced with A220 and A321. Between the A220, A321, 738 and 739, there are plenty of scheduling options for narrowbody range and capacity.
Where does the 717 fit? With more and more A220 coming online, I can see the desire to use it over the 717 for efficiency as they have similar capacity. If DL has to reorganize at some point, the 717 is an ideal candidate to be eliminated since most are leased. I have heard rumors of some sort of lease cancellation deal if DL commits to the MAX, so it will be interesting to see how it turns out.
For the non international 757's, they are getting old and are good candidates to be replaced by the A321. For the international versions, they are also getting old, but again, DL is keeping them in good shape. They obviously are valuable to DL as they brought the PDL hard landing plane back to life and fulfill a specific mission. The only real direct replacement in capacity and range is the A321LR/ULR. With so many 321's on order, it seems plausible to convert a few to LR/ULR.
Widebody:
The 777 retirement has a whole thread devoted to it, but I was surprised to learn of its demise. However, with fewer seats and higher operating costs than the A359, it seems like the right plane to eliminate when downsizing. Could the fact that the LR's have GE engines and the ER's have Rolls creating two subfleets been an issue? It may not since DL Techops serves other airlines and may be servicing both engine types anyway.
Since DL has shown they can get the D1 suite in an A330, what is the chance they will be upgrading the current 332 & 333's to have the suite? Some of them are approaching 17-18 years in age, but with the fewer cycles of longhaul, most of them have well more than 50% of their life left. I realize that DL has to squeeze every penny these days, but spending a couple hundred million (only a week of cash burn at today's rate) over a few years to upgrade the fleet and align the products seems like a decent business plan to me. I think product commonality is important which is why I won't buy a seat in J on AF.
Most people seem to like the A359 and it will obviously be a big part of DL's future longhaul product. I don't think I am the only one wondering if they will be removing a row of seats and adding a C+ cabin. In the smaller Y cabin, they could go from 10 rows with 31-32" pitch to 9 rows with 34-35". If they can charge greater than 11% more for the C+, it will be a net increase in revenue. Plus 9 less meals to serve and fewer potential bags to handle. Although, maybe the meal and bag handling cost would be offset by more amenities for C+ over Y.
So what will be happening with the 763ER's? The 763 seats between 208 and 226 and the replacement widebodies on order seat 281 or 306. That is a lot more seats to fill on each flight if they are replaced on a 1 to 1 basis. I can see how they can absorb the extra seats by reducing a frequency for flights from hubs to LON, CDG, or AMS because they have many flights a day. For example, if there are 4 arrivals into AMS from BOS & JFK combined using 763's, there are a total of around 900 seats per day. This could be done with 3 flights with the new Airbus birds. It doesn't seem that difficult to feed more people to BOS or JFK depending on which had the frequency cut. I am not so sure how they absorb the extra seats on routes like ATL-STR or JFK-LIS where they only have one or two flights ex-LIS/STR per day. Is there are good direct replacement for the 763's? How much longer can DL realistically keep flying these aircraft? For the ones delivered in the late 90's It would seem they have another 10 years left, so could those those 763's get the suites like the 764's?
The 764's with the new J cabin seem to have found their niche on the TATL routes that have high J demand.
Narrowbody:
The Mad Dogs also have their own thread, but deserve an honorable mention. DL kept these birds in good shape and I enjoyed flying them. Nice and quiet in the front with the engines and wings so far behind.
I read that they are eliminating the 737-700. For pilot rating and maintenance, it seems to be no different than a 738. So why get rid of it? Since there are only 10 in the fleet, I suppose eliminating it makes it easier for scheduling.
738's and 739's. DL seems to own a lot of them and they are going to keep flying 'em. Fortunately, DL seems to keep them in good conditions.
A319 & A320 are getting old. IIRC, these are ex-NW equipment. It is my understanding these are being replaced with A220 and A321. Between the A220, A321, 738 and 739, there are plenty of scheduling options for narrowbody range and capacity.
Where does the 717 fit? With more and more A220 coming online, I can see the desire to use it over the 717 for efficiency as they have similar capacity. If DL has to reorganize at some point, the 717 is an ideal candidate to be eliminated since most are leased. I have heard rumors of some sort of lease cancellation deal if DL commits to the MAX, so it will be interesting to see how it turns out.
For the non international 757's, they are getting old and are good candidates to be replaced by the A321. For the international versions, they are also getting old, but again, DL is keeping them in good shape. They obviously are valuable to DL as they brought the PDL hard landing plane back to life and fulfill a specific mission. The only real direct replacement in capacity and range is the A321LR/ULR. With so many 321's on order, it seems plausible to convert a few to LR/ULR.
Last edited by vinnmann; Jul 15, 2020 at 7:57 am
#3
Join Date: Jul 2005
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Flew from Sea to LAX 738 up front, awful experience, appeared to be an older aircraft, seat was uncomfortable and entertainment system was dated, Live Dish also did not work.
#4
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Todays earnings stated 2020 retirement of some portion of the 763ER and A320 fleets (no specific numbers given).
I suspect the A320s will be replaced by A221s and A223s with no range restrictions on them making them suitable for cross country thin routes.
I suspect the 763ERs will be replaced by 764s for South America and in the short-term well see a reduction in secondary Europe service that allows them to use the 764s and A330s on trunk routes and leave the rest of the traffic to AF and KLM.
Perhaps some of those will see the 752 return (which has been notably absent from retirement discussions). Thinking of a route like RDU - CDG which could revert to the 752 in the short term and become an A359 in the longer term.
DL as much as anyone could use Boeings NMA to replace that 200-250 segment but Im not sure well see one from Boeing in this decade. Perhaps DL will convert some A321 to A321XLR to address this segment?
I suspect the A320s will be replaced by A221s and A223s with no range restrictions on them making them suitable for cross country thin routes.
I suspect the 763ERs will be replaced by 764s for South America and in the short-term well see a reduction in secondary Europe service that allows them to use the 764s and A330s on trunk routes and leave the rest of the traffic to AF and KLM.
Perhaps some of those will see the 752 return (which has been notably absent from retirement discussions). Thinking of a route like RDU - CDG which could revert to the 752 in the short term and become an A359 in the longer term.
DL as much as anyone could use Boeings NMA to replace that 200-250 segment but Im not sure well see one from Boeing in this decade. Perhaps DL will convert some A321 to A321XLR to address this segment?
#5
Join Date: Apr 2002
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B717 - unknown; indicated they intend to fly 30-45 out of the 91 through 2022. They are leased aircraft and facing a airworthiness directive to replace the seats by the end of 2022. No confirmation they intend to fly these beyond 2022 at this point. Rumors of trying to get Boeing to take them back for a down the road MAX order but nothing but rumor months ago.
B73G - announced today retiring the small subfleet of 10 aircraft by the end of 2020; the aircraft are in the 10-12 year range and likely facing near-term expensive heavy maintenance checks, otherwise they'd probably stay. Likely to be able to sell and generate some cash at some point
B738 - staying; some frames may stay in storage for awhile until demand recovers and/or if facing heavy maintenance checks
B739 - new staying; these will all return to service sooner rather than later, a few of the earliest deliveries may be approaching their first heavy maintenance cycle
A319 - staying; some frames may stay in storage for awhile until demand recovers and/or if facing heavy maintenance checks; these aircraft are 17-21 years old and still have life in them
A320 - a portion of the fleet to be retired in 2020, they are essentially retirement pull-aheads. Some combination of age and any facing near-term heavy maintenance. Others will continue to fly
A321 - new and staying; these will all return to service sooner rather than later
A220 - new, they are the future of the small narrowbody fleet
B757 - some rationalization of the fleet likely to occur, nothing announced yet but some of the older subfleets particularly non-ETOPS may face earlier retirement.
B753 - these will stay for the near term, most just went through a heavy maintenance cycle in the last 1-2 years, needed for hub-to-hub capacity
B763ER - a portion of the fleet to be retired in 2020, they are essentially retirement pull-aheads. Some combination of age and any facing near-term heavy maintenance. Others will continue to fly
B764 - nothing announced yet, but potential for the unmodded frames to face early retirement; this fleet is mostly in storage currently
B77E/L - all to be retired by end of 2020
A332 - could potentially be a candidate for retirement, but not yet announced anything, small subfleet but commonality with A333 and A339
A333 - staying; some frames may stay in storage for awhile until demand recovers and/or if facing heavy maintenance checks
A339 - new, they are the future of the widebody fleet
A359 - new, they are the future of the large widebody fleet
MD88 / MD90 - already retired and removed from service
B73G - announced today retiring the small subfleet of 10 aircraft by the end of 2020; the aircraft are in the 10-12 year range and likely facing near-term expensive heavy maintenance checks, otherwise they'd probably stay. Likely to be able to sell and generate some cash at some point
B738 - staying; some frames may stay in storage for awhile until demand recovers and/or if facing heavy maintenance checks
B739 - new staying; these will all return to service sooner rather than later, a few of the earliest deliveries may be approaching their first heavy maintenance cycle
A319 - staying; some frames may stay in storage for awhile until demand recovers and/or if facing heavy maintenance checks; these aircraft are 17-21 years old and still have life in them
A320 - a portion of the fleet to be retired in 2020, they are essentially retirement pull-aheads. Some combination of age and any facing near-term heavy maintenance. Others will continue to fly
A321 - new and staying; these will all return to service sooner rather than later
A220 - new, they are the future of the small narrowbody fleet
B757 - some rationalization of the fleet likely to occur, nothing announced yet but some of the older subfleets particularly non-ETOPS may face earlier retirement.
B753 - these will stay for the near term, most just went through a heavy maintenance cycle in the last 1-2 years, needed for hub-to-hub capacity
B763ER - a portion of the fleet to be retired in 2020, they are essentially retirement pull-aheads. Some combination of age and any facing near-term heavy maintenance. Others will continue to fly
B764 - nothing announced yet, but potential for the unmodded frames to face early retirement; this fleet is mostly in storage currently
B77E/L - all to be retired by end of 2020
A332 - could potentially be a candidate for retirement, but not yet announced anything, small subfleet but commonality with A333 and A339
A333 - staying; some frames may stay in storage for awhile until demand recovers and/or if facing heavy maintenance checks
A339 - new, they are the future of the widebody fleet
A359 - new, they are the future of the large widebody fleet
MD88 / MD90 - already retired and removed from service
#7
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As the worlds smallest operator of the 73G theres no reason to maintain such a small sub fleet. I doubt UA WN or WS want to buy them from them
#8
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,594
and with the 221 and 223 they doesn't really need the 73Gs. EYW can be done on the the 319 if need be and will be a cake walk for the 220, it will be a while before TGU comes back and again and is a cake walk for the 220 and if need be 757, ATL-BUR is almost certainly canceled for a long while.....other than that, the rest of the fleet can do the 73G flying easily.
Todays earnings stated 2020 retirement of some portion of the 763ER and A320 fleets (no specific numbers given).
I suspect the A320s will be replaced by A221s and A223s with no range restrictions on them making them suitable for cross country thin routes.
I suspect the 763ERs will be replaced by 764s for South America and in the short-term well see a reduction in secondary Europe service that allows them to use the 764s and A330s on trunk routes and leave the rest of the traffic to AF and KLM.
Perhaps some of those will see the 752 return (which has been notably absent from retirement discussions). Thinking of a route like RDU - CDG which could revert to the 752 in the short term and become an A359 in the longer term.
DL as much as anyone could use Boeings NMA to replace that 200-250 segment but Im not sure well see one from Boeing in this decade. Perhaps DL will convert some A321 to A321XLR to address this segment?
I suspect the A320s will be replaced by A221s and A223s with no range restrictions on them making them suitable for cross country thin routes.
I suspect the 763ERs will be replaced by 764s for South America and in the short-term well see a reduction in secondary Europe service that allows them to use the 764s and A330s on trunk routes and leave the rest of the traffic to AF and KLM.
Perhaps some of those will see the 752 return (which has been notably absent from retirement discussions). Thinking of a route like RDU - CDG which could revert to the 752 in the short term and become an A359 in the longer term.
DL as much as anyone could use Boeings NMA to replace that 200-250 segment but Im not sure well see one from Boeing in this decade. Perhaps DL will convert some A321 to A321XLR to address this segment?
Some of y'all need to settle down.
Its pretty simple, young 763s flow down to replace old 763s, 764/332s replace those 763s, 333/339s replace the 764s/332s replacing the 763s.
All of this in a time where, you likely wont see whatever stays for the international fleet completely pulled from storage for at least a year or more and plenty of 339 and 359s on order to fill any short term needs. On top of that Delta has plenty of routes that saw smaller aircraft that could have seen larger aircraft, had Delta had them. Delta's management team is well aware of the size difference between the 763 and 339.
#9
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I think UA, AS, ans WN have the right idea. They're not doing any mass fleet retirements. It's better to keep airplanes and layoff pilots temporarily. It's far easier to bring those two things back quickly when the recovery hits. DL will be out of luck. DL will have no planes and their pilots will be furloughed far longer because of that decision to permanently remove fleets. UA, AS, and WN can just pull aircraft from storage. DL won't have that option.
#10
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I think UA, AS, ans WN have the right idea. They're not doing any mass fleet retirements. It's better to keep airplanes and layoff pilots temporarily. It's far easier to bring those two things back quickly when the recovery hits. DL will be out of luck. DL will have no planes and their pilots will be furloughed far longer because of that decision to permanently remove fleets. UA, AS, and WN can just pull aircraft from storage. DL won't have that option.
Anyway, the industry line is a bit of doublespeak as they say recovery will take two years while also maintaining that business travel may never reach 2019 levels again with the shift to WFH/WFA. Street analysts are saying traffic level recovery is more like three to five years.
Much of the fleet DL is retiring now are pull-forwards of planned retirements in the next few years. Their order book is (more than) healthy enough to rebuild traffic levels as demand rises. They're working with Airbus to delay some deliveries.
DL's better balance sheet than UA and AA is allowing them to be far more tactical with their fleet today and setting the table to be a much stronger airline with a more efficient cost structure than the other two for the long term once a vaccine arrives.
#11
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Agreed. I liked the MD-88s, but none ever had screens.
IMO they can dump all the 737s they want. I hate flying on them in any cabin, total pieces of junk.
IMO they can dump all the 737s they want. I hate flying on them in any cabin, total pieces of junk.
#12
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I think UA, AS, ans WN have the right idea. They're not doing any mass fleet retirements. It's better to keep airplanes and layoff pilots temporarily. It's far easier to bring those two things back quickly when the recovery hits. DL will be out of luck. DL will have no planes and their pilots will be furloughed far longer because of that decision to permanently remove fleets. UA, AS, and WN can just pull aircraft from storage. DL won't have that option.
That said, Bastian is pretty clear in his statements that he believes the market is 2+ years away from returning to a stable place and this is the most prudent decision in his eyes to keep the business he runs afloat. Remember he was the CFO went DL went through bankruptcy before -- this isn't his first rodeo, he seems to be taking the right set of actions to keep his company afloat in the short-term without overly burdening the long-term with expensive assets or debts that require bankruptcy to shed. As for the others
WN is screwed the moment they have to start taking delivery of their 737Max order that have been sitting on the runway in Washington for the past few months and unless there is a surge in capacity will either need to quickly retire planes or find a way to defer that order.
AS is in a position to return most of the Airbus fleet they inherited from Virgin American if the turnaround drags on and they also have some 737Max planes that they haven't had to take delivery of yet
UA has stated they are looking to furlough 40%+ of their staff, not sure how that differs from what DL is doing -- both companies will see vast numbers of pilots lose their type ratings and require time for re-certification if/when the time comes to re-activate them. UA hasn't made any firm decisions but I don't think anyone would be surprised to see them retire parts of the 757 and 767 fleets
MD88s with IFE, A350s on RDU-CDG....
Some of y'all need to settle down.
Its pretty simple, young 763s flow down to replace old 763s, 764/332s replace those 763s, 333/339s replace the 764s/332s replacing the 763s.
All of this in a time where, you likely wont see whatever stays for the international fleet completely pulled from storage for at least a year or more and plenty of 339 and 359s on order to fill any short term needs. On top of that Delta has plenty of routes that saw smaller aircraft that could have seen larger aircraft, had Delta had them. Delta's management team is well aware of the size difference between the 763 and 339.
Some of y'all need to settle down.
Its pretty simple, young 763s flow down to replace old 763s, 764/332s replace those 763s, 333/339s replace the 764s/332s replacing the 763s.
All of this in a time where, you likely wont see whatever stays for the international fleet completely pulled from storage for at least a year or more and plenty of 339 and 359s on order to fill any short term needs. On top of that Delta has plenty of routes that saw smaller aircraft that could have seen larger aircraft, had Delta had them. Delta's management team is well aware of the size difference between the 763 and 339.
#14
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49 MD88s were already scheduled to all be retired by the end of 2020. They were only really sticking around through 2019 to fly for peak summer 2020, which prior to this pandemic was predicted to sent record traffic numbers.
30 MD90s were really only going to stick around to help cover peak summer 2021 flying and help bridge the wind-down of the MD88/90 fleet
18 77E/77L too many large widebodies for the next several years, also in light of the A350s on order. It would be costly and very sub-optimal to run with very small fleets of both A350, 77E, 77L and literally put brand new A350s in storage. 777 retirement takes out 2 subfleets, 2 engine types, and eliminates a pilot group.category.
10 73Gs I am guessing this is more a function of timing if heavy maintenance was coming due since they are all in the 10-12 year range. As others said, give the impression they are doing something. Removing subfleets always makes investors happy. Can probably actually sell these aircraft versus older A320s which will be part-outs
30 MD90s were really only going to stick around to help cover peak summer 2021 flying and help bridge the wind-down of the MD88/90 fleet
18 77E/77L too many large widebodies for the next several years, also in light of the A350s on order. It would be costly and very sub-optimal to run with very small fleets of both A350, 77E, 77L and literally put brand new A350s in storage. 777 retirement takes out 2 subfleets, 2 engine types, and eliminates a pilot group.category.
10 73Gs I am guessing this is more a function of timing if heavy maintenance was coming due since they are all in the 10-12 year range. As others said, give the impression they are doing something. Removing subfleets always makes investors happy. Can probably actually sell these aircraft versus older A320s which will be part-outs
#15
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I am told the 717 is the least efficient aircraft in the whole DL fleet from a cost-per-ASM standpoint. It's on a different mission from the A22X, though. The Airbus is efficient over medium-to-transcon stage lengths, the 717 is thirsty and costly over short stage lengths but there's no apples-for-apples replacement for it.