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Search: Posts Made By: trueblu
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Mar 31, 20, 4:40 pm
Replies: 1,800
Views: 131,902
Posted By trueblu

Have been away from FT for a few days -- just too...

Have been away from FT for a few days -- just too busy these days. But decided to pop in, and yes, we've clashed on this before, but I still disagree with you:

1. Doffing (taking OFF) masks IS a...
Mar 23, 20, 5:44 pm
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

There is definitely prolonged viral shedding,...

There is definitely prolonged viral shedding, median of 20 days post recovery.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext

But there is evidence that this...
Mar 23, 20, 1:09 pm
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

We don't know what we don't know...so not much by...

We don't know what we don't know...so not much by way of quantitative studies on viral shedding on truly asymptomatic individuals (Diamond Princess was such a lost opportunity). But if you look at...
Mar 23, 20, 1:01 pm
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb3221 ...

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb3221

Strong modelling data in support of asymptomatic transmission. There are lots of other data too...but too busy at the moment to summarise it all. But...
Mar 22, 20, 2:24 pm
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

I've just seen the critical care information for...

I've just seen the critical care information for confirmed COVID-19 patients in the UK...sorry I can't share. But a few highlights, which has got me pretty concerned:

Median age is only 64, with...
Mar 22, 20, 11:37 am
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

The non-pandemic influenza is like that because...

The non-pandemic influenza is like that because of variable immunity in the population. There is NO immunity in the population to SARS-CoV2, so it will only slow down as herd immunity develops,...
Mar 22, 20, 11:07 am
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

Because influenza (not pandemic strains) are so...

Because influenza (not pandemic strains) are so prevalent, most people, on average, get infected every 5-8 years, so any one year, about 10-15% of the global population get infected...Of course, this...
Mar 22, 20, 11:00 am
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

Agreed. But we also desperately need to...

Agreed.

But we also desperately need to realise that in this interconnected world, "my" prosperity depends on others, even outside one's nation state, but also within. My wife forwarded a blog...
Mar 22, 20, 10:16 am
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

This is fair...in fact, the reality is that...

This is fair...in fact, the reality is that COVID-19 will reduce pension/ medicaid etc liabilities. BUT I don't agree that because someone is old, we shouldn't spend money on helping them. In fact,...
Mar 22, 20, 10:04 am
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

I agree there is never a "no matter the...

I agree there is never a "no matter the cost"...in the same way that I never believe "the end justifies the means". However, a month ago, I posited that if we could prevent what I said would be a...
Mar 22, 20, 8:39 am
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

Yes, but too early to roll out just yet, too few...

Yes, but too early to roll out just yet, too few people infected (outside Northern Italy). But we need to perform rapid R&D and QC _right now_ since we'll have the numbers in the next few weeks. I...
Mar 22, 20, 7:37 am
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

Agree. Although Italy has been in lockdown for ?...

Agree. Although Italy has been in lockdown for ? more than 2 weeks now. It's growth trajectory is slowing, however, so it's having an effect, but not enough of one.



I disagree: you need...
Mar 22, 20, 6:24 am
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

As I've mentioned before, serological testing...

As I've mentioned before, serological testing will be really important, but will really only come into play once at least 5% of the population have been infected. Italy will be there very soon, rest...
Mar 22, 20, 6:11 am
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

Here's a link to the actual paper from the...

Here's a link to the actual paper from the publishers site:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/eci.13222

John Ioannidis is a hugely respected voice is evidence-based medicine.
...
Mar 21, 20, 12:17 pm
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

I am encouraging everyone I know to make...

I am encouraging everyone I know to make home-made washable cloth masks, to reduce onward transmission...IF anyone knows any clothing manufacturer moguls, getting them on-board would also be good,...
Mar 21, 20, 12:14 pm
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

I'm not a fan of gloves: they give a false sense...

I'm not a fan of gloves: they give a false sense of security. Lots of studies show that even healthcare workers contaminate their hands badly when removing gloves. In the hospital, I DO wear...
Mar 21, 20, 11:58 am
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

I'm with you on this one...

I'm with you on this one...
Mar 21, 20, 11:52 am
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

Symptoms are irrelevant _in and of themselves_...

Symptoms are irrelevant _in and of themselves_ with regards to whether a test will be positive. Assuming correct sampling and extraction of RNA and the test false positive and false negative rates...
Mar 21, 20, 6:02 am
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

Thanks for posting, I wasn't aware of these...

Thanks for posting, I wasn't aware of these data...Oh well, blood group A middle-aged male here, oops!

tb
Mar 20, 20, 3:14 pm
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

Yep, I mentioned on this thread, about a month...

Yep, I mentioned on this thread, about a month back, that the Diamond Princess is excellent as a 'closed outbreak' scenario, and at least in that (skewed demographic) population, the asymptomatic...
Mar 19, 20, 3:34 pm
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

There is some degree of self-protection, but if...

There is some degree of self-protection, but if that was their only utility, I would say: leave them just for healthcare workers, who need it far more. BUT at a population level, if the vast...
Mar 19, 20, 1:56 pm
Replies: 3,795
Views: 230,010
Posted By trueblu

My mother is making cloth masks by stiching some...

My mother is making cloth masks by stiching some cloth and some elastic she had handy...she's also making some for her neighbours. Some of the people on this thread that are so concerned for the...
Mar 18, 20, 5:00 pm
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

Quick thoughts on some of the other posts: ...

Quick thoughts on some of the other posts:

1. The NEJM letter about viability on surfaces etc just confirms it's much the same as other coronaviruses, and doesn't bother me too much. The aerosol...
Mar 18, 20, 4:46 pm
Replies: 5,937
Views: 806,011
Posted By trueblu

I'm usually the first to say things similar to...

I'm usually the first to say things similar to the above: during the 2014 West African Ebola emergency, more people died of tuberculosis, just in the affected countries, than of Ebola. As of 2020...
Mar 17, 20, 5:03 pm
Replies: 920
Views: 108,712
Posted By trueblu

That's a start....and probably in early Feb, you...

That's a start....and probably in early Feb, you may have not been willing to do even that...so who knows what any of us will be thinking in 6 weeks?

For the general population, one day at a time...
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