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Yesterday, 5:05 am
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

Astra Zeneca might have had a niche in serving...

Astra Zeneca might have had a niche in serving areas or populations with logistical challenges - but soon Novavax comes online and I think it has the same transport requirements.

It might also be...
May 4, 21, 2:18 am
Replies: 7,618
Views: 871,179
Posted By cauchy

Even Public Health England now realises it...

Even Public Health England now realises it doesn't work and is trying something else:
...
May 2, 21, 4:09 pm
Replies: 38
Views: 4,538
Posted By cauchy

Ironically, one could simply buy a "face mask...

Ironically, one could simply buy a "face mask exempt" lanyard online and not wear a mask on the plane and get away with it. Of course, if you do this without being exempt you deserve at minimum a...
May 2, 21, 5:55 am
Replies: 7,618
Views: 871,179
Posted By cauchy

It could all be very simple Prevalence...

It could all be very simple

Prevalence similar to or lower than the UK = no quarantine (green)
Prevalence higher than the UK, but vaccine and/or test on arrival means overall trip as or less...
May 2, 21, 3:05 am
Replies: 7,618
Views: 871,179
Posted By cauchy

Daily Mail has picked this up too ...

Daily Mail has picked this up too



It'll be interesting to see if he gets the 10k fine, or if they take him through the courts.
Apr 30, 21, 5:02 pm
Replies: 16
Views: 1,981
Posted By cauchy

I think this virus is too unpredictable to say...

I think this virus is too unpredictable to say anything!



If it's anything like the US flights, it's probably worth doing with loads at say 20%. There might be quite a bit of pent-up demand...
Apr 30, 21, 4:15 am
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

I've taken the figures from these well-publicised...

I've taken the figures from these well-publicised graphs, and attempted to adjust them to take into account that I don't have any pre-existing conditions. In the 30-somethings, roughly 6/7-ths of...
Apr 30, 21, 3:41 am
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

Was discussed at a select committee hearing this...

Was discussed at a select committee hearing this week:

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/49424a92-b90e-463f-a01c-001ea577915e?in=10:34:02

My view is they're saying it's not in the...
Apr 22, 21, 9:09 am
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

And as true covid rates drop, the %-age of false...

And as true covid rates drop, the %-age of false positives increases, theoretically eventually hitting 100%, with every result being a false positive when covid is truly eradicated. Changes to this...
Apr 22, 21, 7:49 am
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

There are two sorts of errors - when someone who...

There are two sorts of errors - when someone who has Covid testing negative, and also someone without Covid testing positive. This 29% refers to the fraction of people who test positive, who actually...
Apr 22, 21, 5:41 am
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

Perhaps already reported, but Northern Ireland...

Perhaps already reported, but Northern Ireland has opened up vaccinations to the 35+ age group: https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/news/early-opportunity-35-39-year-olds-book-covid-19-vaccine.

Might...
Apr 21, 21, 12:22 pm
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

I'm afraid the "lockdown detractors" in academia...

I'm afraid the "lockdown detractors" in academia have been excluded from SAGE and other government advisory committees. Perhaps the most notable examples are Oxford professors Sunetra Gupta and Carl...
Apr 19, 21, 6:51 pm
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

Not the easiest to interpret with different...

Not the easiest to interpret with different testing policies, but I think it makes the case that working with pure case numbers is a bit too simplistic:...
Apr 19, 21, 5:05 pm
Replies: 339
Views: 46,478
Posted By cauchy

Why would you take the voucher? Just take the...

Why would you take the voucher? Just take the cash.
Apr 19, 21, 4:56 pm
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

Today India has reported 273,802 cases. This is a...

Today India has reported 273,802 cases. This is a whopping number, but India has a population of nearly 1.4 billion people. Per capita, this number of cases is equivalent to 13,359 cases in the UK....
Apr 19, 21, 10:28 am
Replies: 1,469
Views: 223,913
Posted By cauchy

No, this is a member state competence. The...

No, this is a member state competence. The commission can make recommendations, and of course there are political consequences for not following them, but each country can make its own decision.
Apr 18, 21, 2:15 pm
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

Or symptomatic people who would previously have...

Or symptomatic people who would previously have presented for PCR testing are now taking lateral flows from the privacy of their own homes. For them, it means no test-and-trace involvement and no...
Apr 18, 21, 7:25 am
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

I would guess: (1) The UK is far more...

I would guess:

(1) The UK is far more internationally connected than New Zealand, so we started off the back-foot with many more undetected cases;

(2) New Zealand's landmass is roughly 10%...
Apr 18, 21, 7:09 am
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

New Zealand is an interesting example, because it...

New Zealand is an interesting example, because it actually went into lockdown after the UK did (23 March 2020 vs 25 March 2020), but with very different results.
Apr 18, 21, 6:59 am
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

We might actually be agreeing more than we think?...

We might actually be agreeing more than we think? At least on the grounds that "the scientists'" input into the pandemic has largely been left-leaning.



When this is all over we'll see which...
Apr 18, 21, 6:26 am
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

It's tempting to think "the academics can't...

It's tempting to think "the academics can't afford frequent international travel" and that explains their views.

The reality is more nuanced - it's that their often left-leaning worldview favours...
Apr 16, 21, 6:01 pm
Replies: 7,618
Views: 871,179
Posted By cauchy

Yes, but not sure if you need at-home quarantine...

Yes, but not sure if you need at-home quarantine instead - and if its advisory or compulsory instead. But regardless I don't think you'd want to visit, their lockdown is pretty insane (even by...
Apr 16, 21, 5:58 pm
Replies: 4,653
Views: 235,560
Posted By cauchy

(1) Hotel quarantine is here for political...

(1) Hotel quarantine is here for political reasons.

(2) Ireland ran out of hotel rooms to imprison people in, and this is the solution they've come up with.
Apr 16, 21, 10:16 am
Replies: 5
Views: 1,335
Posted By cauchy

Bank error in your favour, you might get the...

Bank error in your favour, you might get the avios too.

Edit: beaten to it by @Tafflyer (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/members/tafflyer.html)
Apr 16, 21, 10:12 am
Replies: 7,618
Views: 871,179
Posted By cauchy

Ireland has announced it is going to exempt...

Ireland has announced it is going to exempt vaccinated people from its hotel quarantine system, so if you've already got a vaccine this could be your backup plan.
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