neko

I've decided at the last minute to fly ARN-ORD for the american thanksgiving next week (thur-sun). I think I will pay Y+ one way and of course, I hope to upgrade the other. (I need some more points for EBG and also to not be knocked out by flights close together.

EDIT for quick summary -- I want to buy M and upgrade one way, buy y+ the other; if the odds look good maybe M both ways.

On 945 on the 26th V0Q9...B0 implies a pretty full flight and -- with no business travelers that day) not much chance for a points upgrade M->Y+ (or even M->C, if need be). Right?

On 943/944 on the 25th and 30th, it's all 9's(incl B9) but the EF seat maps shows no availablity in Y+ on 944, so I should buy M on 943 and Y+ on 944. Right?

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So I am hoping for friendly advice on which flights:

For Wed on 945, expert flyer shows Q9 (below Q is 0) and B0 (S9) though the EF seat map shows Y+ with only a few occupied seats. Tues via CPH on 943 shows all 9's and a few seats occupied in Y+. (The seat maps for M on both flights are > 50% full.)

On Sunday on 944, EF shows all 9's, but the seatmap shows Y+ completely full and M > 50% full. (I know they usually oversell Y+ , but that weekend is probably unusual in that there are no business travelers and so few no-shows?)

I'd rather fly 945 on Wed, but I won't pay Y+ (at S level) and with B0 (and no business travelers) I have little or no hope for an upgrade (unless I try for 30K to business)? And with V0Q9 it's a pretty full flight, so I don't want to miss the upgrade.

If I have to go via CPH both ways, which leg should I pay Y+ (B) for, given that both 943 and 944 show B9, but the seat map for 944 shows no Y+ seats?

My recollection is that ARN is simple to ask for the upgrade (you get it at checkin) and CPH you have to go down to the service desk and try to get in the (viking style) queue to request for an upgrade about 90min before the flight, and you request it at ORD and get it (or not) at the gate.