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Bloomberg article on SAS - canít be good

Bloomberg article on SAS - canít be good

Old Nov 8, 19, 2:32 pm
  #121  
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Originally Posted by highupinthesky View Post
At CPH, the LH group airlines together occupies more than 4 gates full time. That's more than norwegian occupies.
The number of full-time gates doesn't say a whole lot about how many flights and passengers an airline has at a given airport. Norwegian has way more flight movements at CPH than LH group airlines do.
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Old Nov 8, 19, 2:46 pm
  #122  
 
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Originally Posted by GUWonder View Post
The number of full-time gates doesn't say a whole lot about how many flights and passengers an airline has at a given airport. Norwegian has way more flight movements at CPH than LH group airlines do.
I'm not sure that is the case anymore. Norwegian have cut a lot of flights out of CPH during the last 6 months. There are days where they have no long haul flights in CPH at all. 6 months ago, they would have at least 2 long haul flights every day.
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Old Nov 8, 19, 2:54 pm
  #123  
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Originally Posted by highupinthesky View Post
I'm not sure that is the case anymore. Norwegian have cut a lot of flights out of CPH during the last 6 months. There are days where they have no long haul flights in CPH at all. 6 months ago, they would have at least 2 long haul flights every day.
LH group has no scheduled long-haul passenger flights at CPH at all this year. And Norwegian has way more short-haul flights from CPH than LH group airlines, even as it's less of a difference than at this time last year. Either way, Scandinavian flight movements and passengers for LH group airlines are a much smaller fraction of the LH group business than such movements and passengers are for SK and DY.
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Old Nov 8, 19, 3:04 pm
  #124  
 
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Originally Posted by GUWonder View Post
LH group has no scheduled long-haul passenger flights at CPH at all this year. And Norwegian has way more short-haul flights from CPH than LH group airlines, even as it's less of a difference than at this time last year. Either way, Scandinavian flight movements and passengers for LH group airlines are a much smaller fraction of the LH group business than such movements and passengers are for SK and DY.
I know LH don't have any long haul out of CPH, but it's not just the long haul that DY have cut in CPH. A lot of the short hauls have been cut too. DY are serving more destinations out of CPH than the LH group, but I'm pretty sure the LH group have more flights and is moving more pax's on short haul in/out of CPH than DY at the moment. When you add the long haul, DY might move more pax's in/out of CPH, but not if you look at short haul alone.
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Old Nov 8, 19, 3:27 pm
  #125  
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Originally Posted by highupinthesky View Post
I know LH don't have any long haul out of CPH, but it's not just the long haul that DY have cut in CPH. A lot of the short hauls have been cut too. DY are serving more destinations out of CPH than the LH group, but I'm pretty sure the LH group have more flights and is moving more pax's on short haul in/out of CPH than DY at the moment. When you add the long haul, DY might move more pax's in/out of CPH, but not if you look at short haul alone.
Norwegian is indeed a fraction of what it was 12 months ago at CPH, while LH group goes from strength to strength in serving CPH, but the point really is that LH group isnít as heavily dependent on Scandinavian traffic for its financial performance as SAS or Norwegian is and thus itís not as objective to use LH financials as the basis for applauding SAS as to use DY.
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Old Nov 8, 19, 4:49 pm
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Originally Posted by GUWonder View Post
Norwegian is indeed a fraction of what it was 12 months ago at CPH, while LH group goes from strength to strength in serving CPH, but the point really is that LH group isnít as heavily dependent on Scandinavian traffic for its financial performance as SAS or Norwegian is and thus itís not as objective to use LH financials as the basis for applauding SAS as to use DY.
It is when we look at the LH group in/out of Scandinavia. But we can also just look at the number of pax's which goes through the airports, and here SK have higher growth than the airports, meaning they are taking pax's from the other airlines. DY have lost a number of pax's but it's not just from here SK is getting there growth.
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Old Nov 8, 19, 5:01 pm
  #127  
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Originally Posted by highupinthesky View Post
It is when we look at the LH group in/out of Scandinavia. But we can also just look at the number of pax's which goes through the airports, and here SK have higher growth than the airports, meaning they are taking pax's from the other airlines. DY have lost a number of pax's but it's not just from here SK is getting there growth.
SKís improved growth and performance and DYís better performance is largely explained by this:

ĒWhen the Swedish housing market is ďtooĒ frothy/expensive for most of the remaining wannabe buyers of their own place (sort of), there tends to be some leftover money to be spent on travel and other entertainment. When the bulk of the Scandinavian labor market is tight, the employed may have way more money to speed on travel and entertainment, more so when housing affordability isnít increasing big time anytime soon and so there is even more of the mentality of ďlive/spend for today because the welfare stateís safety net has us anyway and that dream home is nowhere near now.ĒĒ

And DYís retreat ó and even Thomas Cookís problems ó have also been to SASís benefit (and DYís in a way).

The measure of SKís performance and the sustainability of performance are best measured once it has had a major recession as its stress test. Looking good when times are sort of great in oneís home market doesnít require all that much business acumen, especially not when the other major home market competitor has been on a major retreat.
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Old Nov 9, 19, 3:06 am
  #128  
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The DY troubles were omni present in July too, in fact they are doing (or atleast giving the impression of doing) a bit better in Q3, so that can't be it. TCook going bk can't be such a big factor in the nordics... the cooling down of world markets will rather intensify the longhaul business as people are not willing to fly for even 3000 SEK to the US to pay the fuel bill...? That SK will get low operating cost A359 this year is no news either.
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Old Nov 9, 19, 5:59 am
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Originally Posted by GUWonder View Post
SKís improved growth and performance and DYís better performance is largely explained by this:

ĒWhen the Swedish housing market is ďtooĒ frothy/expensive for most of the remaining wannabe buyers of their own place (sort of), there tends to be some leftover money to be spent on travel and other entertainment. When the bulk of the Scandinavian labor market is tight, the employed may have way more money to speed on travel and entertainment, more so when housing affordability isnít increasing big time anytime soon and so there is even more of the mentality of ďlive/spend for today because the welfare stateís safety net has us anyway and that dream home is nowhere near now.ĒĒ

And DYís retreat ó and even Thomas Cookís problems ó have also been to SASís benefit (and DYís in a way).

The measure of SKís performance and the sustainability of performance are best measured once it has had a major recession as its stress test. Looking good when times are sort of great in oneís home market doesnít require all that much business acumen, especially not when the other major home market competitor has been on a major retreat.
Your argument still doesn't explain why SK is performing better in the last quarter than comparable airlines. But let's agree to disagree.
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Old Nov 9, 19, 7:05 am
  #130  
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Originally Posted by highupinthesky View Post
Your argument still doesn't explain why SK is performing better in the last quarter than comparable airlines. But let's agree to disagree.
The most comparable large airline to SAS in having a very high proportion of its revenue tied to the Swedish+Danish+Norwegian market condition is Norwegian/DY. Beside perhaps Finnair, every other large scheduled common carrier airline is far removed from having even a relatively moderate financial dependency on these three Scandinavian countriesí economic situation and are not comparable to SAS or even Norwegian/DY.

I get it that some want people to believe or sell the narrative that SAS has done something truly extraordinary in recent months, but Iím not one to buy or sell such marketing hype.
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Old Nov 9, 19, 7:09 am
  #131  
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Originally Posted by oliver2002 View Post
The DY troubles were omni present in July too, in fact they are doing (or atleast giving the impression of doing) a bit better in Q3, so that can't be it. TCook going bk can't be such a big factor in the nordics... the cooling down of world markets will rather intensify the longhaul business as people are not willing to fly for even 3000 SEK to the US to pay the fuel bill...? That SK will get low operating cost A359 this year is no news either.
TC going bankrupt created problems for the charter package sellers in the region who started to have their customers flock toward SAS for holiday period travel too. This is in small part why SAS is going to have a relatively decent Q4 too.

The primary Swedish stock exchange index has done rather well this year, and has been up c 25% YTD. SAS hasnít outperformed that by any substantial multiple during the same period and has underperformed that indexís performance. For the July-to-date picture, SAS has done fine in terms of its stock price.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/OMXSTO-SAS/

Last edited by GUWonder; Nov 9, 19 at 7:32 am
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Old Nov 9, 19, 8:27 am
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Originally Posted by GUWonder View Post
I get it that some want people to believe or sell the narrative that SAS has done something truly extraordinary in recent months, but I’m not one to buy or sell such marketing hype.
I'm not getting my info from the press releases. I'm getting it from professional stock analytics I know.

Originally Posted by GUWonder View Post
TC going bankrupt created problems for the charter package sellers in the region who started to have their customers flock toward SAS for holiday period travel too. This is in small part why SAS is going to have a relatively decent Q4 too.
The bankruptcy of TC came too late to have any real impact on the last quarter earnings. Yes it might impact the year result, but I strongly doubt it's the whole reason for rasing the predictions from 0 or below to 500mill DKK or above.

Originally Posted by GUWonder View Post
The primary Swedish stock exchange index has done rather well this year, and has been up c 25% YTD. SAS hasn’t outperformed that by any substantial multiple during the same period and has underperformed that index’s performance. For the July-to-date picture, SAS has done fine in terms of its stock price.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/OMXSTO-SAS/
Again. I'm not talking about the stock prices. I'm talking about the key performance parameters like yield, load factor, ASK, RPK etc. All parameters where SK, to my knowledge, have outperformed their competitors during the last quarter.

Last edited by highupinthesky; Nov 10, 19 at 6:48 am
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Old Nov 10, 19, 5:16 am
  #133  
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Originally Posted by highupinthesky View Post
The bankruptcy of TC came too late to have any real impact on the last quarter earnings. Yes it might impact the year result, but I strongly doubt it's the whole reason for racing the predictions from 0 or below to 500mill DKK or above.
The Scandinavian Thomas Cook companies are run profitably, and will continue to operate independently, under new ownership. There was some unrest and cancelled flights for a couple of days when TC went bankrupt, even some TC-passengers booked on joint SK-operated charters were denied booking. The TC debacle was quickly over here, and should really not affect SK earnings significantly.
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Old Nov 10, 19, 6:53 am
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Originally Posted by ksu View Post
The Scandinavian Thomas Cook companies are run profitably, and will continue to operate independently, under new ownership. There was some unrest and cancelled flights for a couple of days when TC went bankrupt, even some TC-passengers booked on joint SK-operated charters were denied booking. The TC debacle was quickly over here, and should really not affect SK earnings significantly.
There will always be an aftermath. People will panic, cancel their TC vacation and book on another carrier, or people will not trust TC Scandinavia and book their upcoming vacation somewhere else. But as I said. This is not enough to justify the improved year end result predictions from SK. The improvement in their key performance parameters is what drives this revised prediction.
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Old Nov 10, 19, 11:10 am
  #135  
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The economic growth rates in SASís home countries seem to be dropping a bit. So that could mean one slight headwind against SAS. But as what are often taken as leading economic indicators, the stock prices donít really seem to reflect much of that, so maybe the good times for SAS and Norwegian are not dead on arrival and just getting started?
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