How much does SK oversell?
 

I'm looking at a TATL EWR-ARN that is completely sold out in all classes. What does this actually mean? SK (as all other airlines) oversell their cabins so how is this usually divided between the cabins? Do they oversell C and Y for example, and if they do, how much?

The flight is two weeks away and it's been completely full for at least a week already.

I'm hoping to get an upgrade using Optiontown from Y to C but if C is packed I guess my chances are slim unless someone with a full flex decides to no show, or?:(


Cheers guys!^

Airlines oversell by a certain degree depending on the markets. Some markets usually have flexible fares so many drop off at the last moment: in this case they do a massive oversell. If you have the start of school vacations, the people usually will take the flight, so they oversell only to the capacity to the flight, including the Y & C cabin. In SK's case I've seen that they seem to manage pretty well and don't have to leave many behind, but op-ups to Y/C are very common.

So reading you right, the oversell the "popular" flights less. And since this is a flight on a friday just before midsummer (where the flight the day after is also completely sold out) I guess they haven't oversold it so heavily.

Which I guess means, that it actually only takes one or two pax that drop off for my upgrade to come into question again.

The last time i monitored a flight was about two weeks ago. A thursday flight same route, C all packed about a week before the flight and just like that, four days before departure it all cleared with about five available seats in C. My upgrade cleared and I had a great flight and the load was completely, full not a single seat left.

So regarding the not so popular flights. Do they oversell C at all? I'm thinking there isn't really anywhere they can put anyone if they have more C pax than they have seats. So ort of gives SK pretty little wiggle room :confused:

On the US flights over holidays seems they are overbooking Economy a lot. So if your flight is 0 in all classes, given the time of the year, they are probably planning on upgrading a lot of pax.
For the asian destinations you might see the opposite - Business is very often full but lot´s of seats open in Economy. I have been asked if I am willing to fly in Economy when trying to change date for the return flight from Asia (holding c-ticket).
Seat guarantee for elites is also a factor, I guess mainly on the asian routes.
So it´s a tricky game for rev management for sure.

SK as other airlines manage their capacity based on some pretty complex models.

How many tickets their are willing to "oversell" is based on quite a number of factors, including route, time of day, time of year, etc. How they manage optiontown in this regard is another question.

Err... isn't any flight that gets oversold "popular" pretty much by definition?

I think simply put they use historical data, data on the tickets sold (and pax) etc. to forecast how many no-shows or ticket changes/cancellations are likely and calculate how many tickets to sell to maximize revenue while trying to avoid too many IDB:s. I could imagine they don't even limit the analysis on the tickets types, but also on are you traveling alone/ w/ partner/ as a family etc.
But anyway if they do their stuff right, the chance of the initially overbooked flight being overbooked at the gate should be about constant and not greatly affect you, as they've taken already these factors into account.

BTW, speaking of OP-UPs on sold out flights, I witnessed a OP-Down on a KF (DC) flight TMP-ARN last week... the plane was full and one guy was downgraded from Premium to cattle (with compensation). The weird thing was there were only 3 rows Premium in the Saab 2000, which is nowhere near the max. I've seen. Wouldn't it be cheaper (and better PR) for them to upgrade 3 guys (given they even sell those upgrades for mere 25€, none available for this flight though) than downgrade one? Does this happen often, or was there just a problem with catering or something?

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That's weird. Must have been lack of (three) meals. Or does anyone have an alternate explanation?

And not to forget: number of connecting pax and possibility to move them to a later flight.

Station manager at ORD told me some years ago that it was not unusual to have 20-30 no-show on the ORD-ARN-flight due to late incoming transfer-pax which had to be put on the CPH-flight.

Bringing this topic back up...any experiences what SK's approach to overselling intra-EU flights is? I am booked on DUS-CPH this Friday, and it's zeroed out across the board for several days now, so I assume it is overbooked currently. Also assuming that this flight has little to no feed at DUS, I think the numbers should not be too bad, but in case they are looking for volunteers, what is a typical offer for SK? LH gives cash, does SK do so as well, or is it only vouchers for future flights?

That said I once was left on my own with LH after accepting VDB with no hotel provided - I assume that SK will provide overnight accommodation if they cannot get me to CPH the same day, correct?

Thanks for any information you may have!

Greetings - Dirk

They oversell on popular routes, i.e LHR-ARN. I spoke to some gate agents and on one day, a flight was oversold by 39 (late LHR departure) and the next day the number wasn't much better. Needless to say, if stuff like that worries you, use OLCI early and show up at the check-in in time to have the highest chance of being rebooked earlier. If it's full, it's probably overly full, and then it just comes down to airport, time of last flight, etc which will be the remaining factors.

Mixed up days - my flight is Thursday, not Friday. That said, I am not really worried as I would also do well taking the first flight on Friday morning instead. However I would want to be prepared as to what to expect with SK in an oversale situation - since the flight is on a CR9 with no feed to speak of (i.e. near-zero connecting pax) I guess they would not dare to book it at 130% of capacity...rather something like the normal 2-3 or so. Unless, of course, experience would suggest that SK overbooks like DL did in the 90's when booking domestic flights at 130% was considered a lightly booked flight there.

Greetings - Dirk

Last time (couple weeks back) they looked for IDB volunteers CPH-WAW they offered 150€ or double in SK vouchers.

I rarely see SK overbooking intra Europe even if flights are full (only have seen this on busy intra-scandinavian and long-haul routes). But then I usually arrive to gate last moment, and I have status, so I miss to hear any announcements, and they probably keep a seat for me ...

If you look for oversold flights, try LHR-CPH/ARN/OSL Sunday afternoon/evening when Scandinavnian leisure pax are heading home after a long weekend in London. Your chances of IDB are quite good (I can't remember the compensation offered).

*zip* Doubleposted. Sorry.