Will QR’s operations be affected by a US Iran conflict?
May 18, 2019, 12:14 pm
#1
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US Warns Airlines Flying in the Gulf of “Misidentification”
This seems especially relevant here. Do not most Qatar flights arrive/leave via Iranian airspace ?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/...065807097.html
Jun 20, 2019, 8:35 am
#2
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Will QR’s operations be affected by a US Iran conflict?
Hi all,
Sorry if this question comes as overly paranoid or irrelevant to this forum, but as the news has spread that a US drone has been downed in Iran/straights of hormuz, it looks more and more likely (ie. above 40%) that the US and Iran may end up in an actual hot conflict soon with tensions boiling over. If actual conflict does arise, how will QR’s operations and ability to fly all of their scheduled flights be affected, especially with the gulf blockade still in place? As someone who is US based but had two long haul rt’s to Asia scheduled with Qatar in the next 2 months, should I be worried my flights will be affected? Needless to say, there are MUCH larger issues when it comes to a potential US Iran conflict like loss of life, global commerce being affected, and war in general, but I feel this an appropriate venue to ask this question being that there may be others that thinking this same thing. Thanks all!
Sorry if this question comes as overly paranoid or irrelevant to this forum, but as the news has spread that a US drone has been downed in Iran/straights of hormuz, it looks more and more likely (ie. above 40%) that the US and Iran may end up in an actual hot conflict soon with tensions boiling over. If actual conflict does arise, how will QR’s operations and ability to fly all of their scheduled flights be affected, especially with the gulf blockade still in place? As someone who is US based but had two long haul rt’s to Asia scheduled with Qatar in the next 2 months, should I be worried my flights will be affected? Needless to say, there are MUCH larger issues when it comes to a potential US Iran conflict like loss of life, global commerce being affected, and war in general, but I feel this an appropriate venue to ask this question being that there may be others that thinking this same thing. Thanks all!
Jun 20, 2019, 9:15 am
#3
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Anything's possible, but I doubt that a U.S. attack against Iran would have widespread consequences outside the immediate conflict area for commercial air travel.
Whose number is the 40%?
Whose number is the 40%?
Jun 20, 2019, 9:37 am
#4
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I have a few friends and colleagues who formerly worked in natsec positions in the US govt, as well as folks who work in think tanks such as the council on foreign relations, brookings, etc. and a few of them have said with this latest incident and Mr. Trump’s tendency to always “punch back,” the likelihood of conflict seems to be around 30-40% to err with caution. Hopefully these numbers are wrong and things will de-escalate.
Jun 20, 2019, 11:30 am
#5
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 938
I share OP's concern. I was just reading news and President Trump had said 'the downing of a US drone was probably a mistake'. Now, you can make whatever you want from that but I don't feel comfortable flying in airspace where an aircraft was just shot down, whether it be by mistake or otherwise.
Last edited by R2; Jun 20, 2019 at 11:51 am Reason: clarity
Jun 20, 2019, 4:51 pm
#6
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My view is that the only thing we can say for certain here is that we don't know. There is a lot of random factors at play here. The only thing I am fairly certain about is that given the view that the US now has little strategic interest in the Gulf region for it's own ends, then the US is likely not going to be very concerned about how the cookie crumbles here.
The other semi random factor to put into the mix here is that some of the occupants in social housing in Washington DC have shown themselves to be more than willing to carry water for the Saudis, and that the Saudies are very ineffective at executing a war. This adds to the probability that the US will do what the Saudies want help with. Add to that, the current blockade for Qatar is there because the UAE/SA feels that Qatar is too far much aligned with Iran and open to be pragmatic with Iran than SA/UAE is, so Qatar could probably easily find it self in a pickle if this region heats up.
All this said, the Qatari state is fully paid up on their anti war insurance, you have a close US presence in and nearby Qatar both on the water and in the air, and the Qataries whent on a nice shopping spree to both the Europe and US as soon as they saw that Trump was being elected, so they aren't dummies.
At the end of the day, I am not so sure logic will apply here, but we might see some settling of scores based on who has stepped on who's toes in the neighbourood politics lately (who is friendly with who, who have had a finger in which foreign affair events the last few years, etc.) and what better way to deal with all this than pulling in the US muddle the waters so everyone can get their business taken care of.
My two dihrams worth of analysis.
-A
PS: Now, the important part here, if airspace gets constrained more than it is, then QR is likely going to be facing the option of taking off mostly on 34L/R and keep veering to the left and follow the Eufrates up and take a right turn and head for Baku and beyond to get eastwards. The quality of the champagne certainly will take a nose dive to pay for that extra fuel.
The other semi random factor to put into the mix here is that some of the occupants in social housing in Washington DC have shown themselves to be more than willing to carry water for the Saudis, and that the Saudies are very ineffective at executing a war. This adds to the probability that the US will do what the Saudies want help with. Add to that, the current blockade for Qatar is there because the UAE/SA feels that Qatar is too far much aligned with Iran and open to be pragmatic with Iran than SA/UAE is, so Qatar could probably easily find it self in a pickle if this region heats up.
All this said, the Qatari state is fully paid up on their anti war insurance, you have a close US presence in and nearby Qatar both on the water and in the air, and the Qataries whent on a nice shopping spree to both the Europe and US as soon as they saw that Trump was being elected, so they aren't dummies.
At the end of the day, I am not so sure logic will apply here, but we might see some settling of scores based on who has stepped on who's toes in the neighbourood politics lately (who is friendly with who, who have had a finger in which foreign affair events the last few years, etc.) and what better way to deal with all this than pulling in the US muddle the waters so everyone can get their business taken care of.
My two dihrams worth of analysis.
-A
PS: Now, the important part here, if airspace gets constrained more than it is, then QR is likely going to be facing the option of taking off mostly on 34L/R and keep veering to the left and follow the Eufrates up and take a right turn and head for Baku and beyond to get eastwards. The quality of the champagne certainly will take a nose dive to pay for that extra fuel.
Last edited by ph-ndr; Jun 20, 2019 at 4:56 pm Reason: Speeeeeling and klarifikations
Jun 21, 2019, 12:44 am
#7
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More info on the US prohibition
https://ops.group/blog/us-issues-eme...aircraft-iran/
https://ops.group/blog/us-issues-eme...aircraft-iran/
The FAA has issued an Emergency Order to US Civil Aircraft, prohibiting all American aircraft operators from entering the Tehran Flight Information Region (OIIX) FIR in the area above the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
Notam A0019/19 was issued at 0148 UTC, June 21st.
The Notam specifically prohibits any airline or aircraft operator from flying within Iranian airspace in the region that the US drone was shot down in on June 20th.
Some airlines had already reported suspending operations in Iranian airspace. This Notam ensures that US operators cannot operate in the area. Although the official applicability is to US aircraft only, since MH17 all countries rely on advice from the US, the UK, France and Germany to highlight airspace risk.
The full Notam follows (bolded parts by OPSGROUP):
A0019/19 NOTAMN Q) KICZ/QRDLP/IV/NBO/AE/000/999/
A) KICZ PART 1 OF 2
B) 1906210148
C) PERM
E) SECURITY..UNITED STATES OF AMERICA PROHIBITION AGAINST CERTAIN FLIGHTS IN THE OVERWATER AREA OF THE TEHRAN FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION (FIR) (OIIX) ABOVE THE PERSIAN GULF AND GULF OF OMAN ONLY.
ALL FLIGHT OPERATIONS IN THE OVERWATER AREA OF THE TEHRAN FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION (FIR) (OIIX) ABOVE THE PERSIAN GULF AND GULF OF OMAN ONLY ARE PROHIBITED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO HEIGHTENED MILITARY ACTIVITIES AND INCREASED POLITICAL TENSIONS IN THE REGION, WHICH PRESENT AN INADVERTENT RISK TO U.S. CIVIL AVIATION OPERATIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR MISCALCULATION OR MIS-IDENTIFICATION.THE RISK TO U.S. CIVIL AVIATION IS DEMONSTRATED BY THE IRANIAN SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILE SHOOT DOWN OF A U.S. UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEM ON 19 JUNE 2019 WHILE IT WAS OPERATING IN THE VICINITY OF CIVIL AIR ROUTES ABOVE THE GULF OF OMAN.
A. APPLICABILITY. THIS NOTAM APPLIES TO: ALL U.S. AIR CARRIERS AND COMMERCIAL OPERATORS; ALL PERSONS EXERCISING THE PRIVILEGES OF AN AIRMAN CERTIFICATE ISSUED BY THE FAA, EXCEPT SUCH PERSONS OPERATING U.S.-REGISTERED AIRCRAFT FOR A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER; AND ALL OPERATORS OF AIRCRAFT REGISTERED IN THE UNITED STATES, EXCEPT WHERE THE OPERATOR OF SUCH AIRCRAFT IS A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER.
B. PERMITTED OPERATIONS. THIS NOTAM DOES NOT PROHIBIT PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A (APPLICABILITY) FROM CONDUCTING FLIGHT OPERATIONS IN THE ABOVE NAMED AREA WHEN SUCH OPERATIONS ARE AUTHORIZED EITHER BY ANOTHER AGENCY OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT WITH THE APPROVAL OF THE FAA OR BY A DEVIATION, EXEMPTION, OR OTHER AUTHORIZATION ISSUED BY THE FAA ADMINISTRATOR. OPERATORS MUST CALL THE FAA WASHINGTON OPERATIONS CENTER AT 202-267-3333 TO INITIATE COORDINATION FOR FAA AUTHORIZATION TO CONDUCT OPERATIONS.
C. EMERGENCY SITUATIONS. IN AN EMERGENCY THAT REQUIRES IMMEDIATE DECISION AND ACTION FOR THE SAFETY OF THE FLIGHT, THE PILOT IN COMMAND OF AN AIRCRAFT MAY DEVIATE FROM THIS NOTAM TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED BY THAT EMERGENCY.
THIS NOTAM IS AN EMERGENCY ORDER ISSUED UNDER 49 USC 40113(A) AND 46105(C). ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AT: HTTPS://WWW.FAA.GOV/AIR_TRAFFIC/PUBLICATIONS/US_RESTRICTIONS/
Notam A0019/19 was issued at 0148 UTC, June 21st.
The Notam specifically prohibits any airline or aircraft operator from flying within Iranian airspace in the region that the US drone was shot down in on June 20th.
Some airlines had already reported suspending operations in Iranian airspace. This Notam ensures that US operators cannot operate in the area. Although the official applicability is to US aircraft only, since MH17 all countries rely on advice from the US, the UK, France and Germany to highlight airspace risk.
The full Notam follows (bolded parts by OPSGROUP):
A0019/19 NOTAMN Q) KICZ/QRDLP/IV/NBO/AE/000/999/
A) KICZ PART 1 OF 2
B) 1906210148
C) PERM
E) SECURITY..UNITED STATES OF AMERICA PROHIBITION AGAINST CERTAIN FLIGHTS IN THE OVERWATER AREA OF THE TEHRAN FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION (FIR) (OIIX) ABOVE THE PERSIAN GULF AND GULF OF OMAN ONLY.
ALL FLIGHT OPERATIONS IN THE OVERWATER AREA OF THE TEHRAN FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION (FIR) (OIIX) ABOVE THE PERSIAN GULF AND GULF OF OMAN ONLY ARE PROHIBITED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO HEIGHTENED MILITARY ACTIVITIES AND INCREASED POLITICAL TENSIONS IN THE REGION, WHICH PRESENT AN INADVERTENT RISK TO U.S. CIVIL AVIATION OPERATIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR MISCALCULATION OR MIS-IDENTIFICATION.THE RISK TO U.S. CIVIL AVIATION IS DEMONSTRATED BY THE IRANIAN SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILE SHOOT DOWN OF A U.S. UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEM ON 19 JUNE 2019 WHILE IT WAS OPERATING IN THE VICINITY OF CIVIL AIR ROUTES ABOVE THE GULF OF OMAN.
A. APPLICABILITY. THIS NOTAM APPLIES TO: ALL U.S. AIR CARRIERS AND COMMERCIAL OPERATORS; ALL PERSONS EXERCISING THE PRIVILEGES OF AN AIRMAN CERTIFICATE ISSUED BY THE FAA, EXCEPT SUCH PERSONS OPERATING U.S.-REGISTERED AIRCRAFT FOR A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER; AND ALL OPERATORS OF AIRCRAFT REGISTERED IN THE UNITED STATES, EXCEPT WHERE THE OPERATOR OF SUCH AIRCRAFT IS A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER.
B. PERMITTED OPERATIONS. THIS NOTAM DOES NOT PROHIBIT PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A (APPLICABILITY) FROM CONDUCTING FLIGHT OPERATIONS IN THE ABOVE NAMED AREA WHEN SUCH OPERATIONS ARE AUTHORIZED EITHER BY ANOTHER AGENCY OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT WITH THE APPROVAL OF THE FAA OR BY A DEVIATION, EXEMPTION, OR OTHER AUTHORIZATION ISSUED BY THE FAA ADMINISTRATOR. OPERATORS MUST CALL THE FAA WASHINGTON OPERATIONS CENTER AT 202-267-3333 TO INITIATE COORDINATION FOR FAA AUTHORIZATION TO CONDUCT OPERATIONS.
C. EMERGENCY SITUATIONS. IN AN EMERGENCY THAT REQUIRES IMMEDIATE DECISION AND ACTION FOR THE SAFETY OF THE FLIGHT, THE PILOT IN COMMAND OF AN AIRCRAFT MAY DEVIATE FROM THIS NOTAM TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED BY THAT EMERGENCY.
THIS NOTAM IS AN EMERGENCY ORDER ISSUED UNDER 49 USC 40113(A) AND 46105(C). ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AT: HTTPS://WWW.FAA.GOV/AIR_TRAFFIC/PUBLICATIONS/US_RESTRICTIONS/
Jun 21, 2019, 12:55 am
#8
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If Iranian airspace and the Hormuz Straits were to be closed, and Saudi / UAE airspace were to remain closed to Qatari aircraft, then I don't see how QR could maintain its SE Asia, Australia and NZ routes. DOH - SIN via Iraq, the Black Sea, Xinjiang and Thailand? Yeah, right.
Jun 21, 2019, 5:03 am
#9
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A reminder to keep things on topic please.
This is an interesting topic, but will be Closed if sails into OMNI territory.
M
This is an interesting topic, but will be Closed if sails into OMNI territory.
M
Jun 21, 2019, 7:32 am
#10
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If Iranian airspace and the Hormuz Straits were to be closed, and Saudi / UAE airspace were to remain closed to Qatari aircraft, then I don't see how QR could maintain its SE Asia, Australia and NZ routes. DOH - SIN via Iraq, the Black Sea, Xinjiang and Thailand? Yeah, right.
If a hot conflict arose, I don’t see how any civilian carrier would still use Iranian airspace, and chances are if there real conflict the US would impose an Iran-wide no fly zone. My fingers are crossed hot conflict doesn’t arise as I don’t see any possibility of UAE or SA opening up their airspace to QR anytime soon, so a war could be the last straw that breaks QR...
Jun 21, 2019, 8:42 am
#14
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 5
I've been monitoring FR24 off and on for the past six hours.
QR does not seem to have changed any flight paths, as far as I can tell. They're still flying over the area called out by that NOTAM.
I have a flight ARN-DOH-BKK Monday evening; I'm considering cancelling it, even though I would only get a refund for about half of the price paid. I guess I'll decide Sunday. Perhaps QR will have some new route in place by then...
QR does not seem to have changed any flight paths, as far as I can tell. They're still flying over the area called out by that NOTAM.
I have a flight ARN-DOH-BKK Monday evening; I'm considering cancelling it, even though I would only get a refund for about half of the price paid. I guess I'll decide Sunday. Perhaps QR will have some new route in place by then...
Jun 21, 2019, 9:07 am
#15
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I'm in a similar boat here. Flying BOS-DOH-MLE on the 26th, returning the following week for a long planned 10th anniversary trip. If the straight is closed I don't see any way for QR to fly DOH-MLE or vice versa unless the UAE opened up airspace and that doesn't seem likely. Going around Iran would probably double the flight time. Definitely going to be keeping a close eye on this and try to figure out some potential alternatives.