AAB threatens to leave oneworld
Jan 12, 2019, 4:05 am
#121
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: LHR
Programs: QR Platinum, WY Gold, Shangri-la Diamond, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,151
Well, I can’t imagine either BA or QR would wish to give up the joint business venture - especially as QR now owns part of IAG... I would expect codesharing to continue - which would presumably mean BAEC tier points (and avios) for bookings on BA codes at the very least.
My personal opinion is that this discussion is all academic anyway - I think AAB is using the media attention to express his displeasure with AA / QF and trying to force some hands with his threats.
Don't forget that Air Italy ("QR lite"
) also uses the avios scheme and there is no sign as yet that it won't continue to do so. Currently you can't use qmiles to book Air Italy flights but you can use avios - so, if anything, I think we're headed towards closer cooperation and/or integration further down the line...
My personal opinion is that this discussion is all academic anyway - I think AAB is using the media attention to express his displeasure with AA / QF and trying to force some hands with his threats.
Don't forget that Air Italy ("QR lite"
) also uses the avios scheme and there is no sign as yet that it won't continue to do so. Currently you can't use qmiles to book Air Italy flights but you can use avios - so, if anything, I think we're headed towards closer cooperation and/or integration further down the line...
Jan 12, 2019, 10:53 am
#122
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Hong Kong, France
Programs: FB , BA Gold
Posts: 15,554
https://www.flyingblue.fr/en/partner...s/presentation
My reading is that XP (equivalent to TP in BAEC) can only be earned on CZ-marketed flights if operated by a ST partner. My reading might be wrong, but it would suggest that status (and maybe miles) cannot be earned on most CZ flights, but spending still works.
Of course, a AF marketed flight operated by CZ (codeshare) would still work for Flying Blue (AF program).
CZ announcement was very sudden, but it took place at the time of renewal of their ST contract. I have no idea how OW works and what are the contractual arrangements.and the advanced notice that has to be given.
QR joined OW on 29 october 2013 and it would be interesting to know the duration of the contract, whether there is an opt-out clause, etc...
Regarding BA, the minimal arrangements in case QR leaves OW would to be to increase the number of BA codeshares on QR metal. Currently there is a dozen+ codeshares DOH-XXX. BA might add all XXX where they don't fly. But I strongly doubt that they would codeshare on QR flights from EU or US.
Jan 12, 2019, 11:03 am
#123
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: LON
Programs: BAEC
Posts: 3,913
If you think about it most airlines sell tickets 10 to 12 months ahead so 12 months of transition will typically be required for any airline to exit an alliance smoothly. So like others have said, even if QR do announce their notice to quit, it will take at least 12 months for an orderly exit.
Jan 12, 2019, 12:43 pm
#124
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 2,016
I am not sure that the situation of CZ with ST is as good as you state regarding status points for AF/KL program..
https://www.flyingblue.fr/en/partner...s/presentation
My reading is that XP (equivalent to TP in BAEC) can only be earned on CZ-marketed flights if operated by a ST partner. My reading might be wrong, but it would suggest that status (and maybe miles) cannot be earned on most CZ flights, but spending still works.
Of course, a AF marketed flight operated by CZ (codeshare) would still work for Flying Blue (AF program).
https://www.flyingblue.fr/en/partner...s/presentation
My reading is that XP (equivalent to TP in BAEC) can only be earned on CZ-marketed flights if operated by a ST partner. My reading might be wrong, but it would suggest that status (and maybe miles) cannot be earned on most CZ flights, but spending still works.
Of course, a AF marketed flight operated by CZ (codeshare) would still work for Flying Blue (AF program).
Jan 13, 2019, 2:52 am
#125
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Hong Kong, France
Programs: FB , BA Gold
Posts: 15,554
Hm. Flying Blue shows a Skyteam logo next to the CZ logo, so my reading is that Flying Blue hasn't been updated since CZ left Skyteam and that the information may be unreliable. CZ also mentions Skyteam at some places, for example here.
But the FB text itself that I linked has been changed. CZ was a full ST partner regarding earnings and spending. But it has become a simple partner with limited earnings except on CZ marketed flights operated by AFKL or any ST airline. In other words, one does not earn on most CZ flights (but can sitll spend).
Plunet refers to the "official announcement posted in November:
"SkyTeam and China Southern have agreed to work closely together to ensure a seamless transition for all customers and partners."
This statement lacks details. Nowhere does it say that FB members will continue to earn miles/XP on most CZ flight as was the case when CZ was part of ST. From some posts, it seems that CZ will keep honoring some past perks, such as lounge access for status pax of ST programs.
Anyway, CZ case might not be relevant to what will happen between QR and BA if QR leaves OW.
Jan 13, 2019, 7:02 am
#126
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 2,016
But the FB text itself that I linked has been changed. CZ was a full ST partner regarding earnings and spending. But it has become a simple partner with limited earnings except on CZ marketed flights operated by AFKL or any ST airline. In other words, one does not earn on most CZ flights (but can sitll spend).
Jan 16, 2019, 4:03 am
#127
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: AMS
Programs: BAEC Silver, Flying Blue Gold, TK M&S Nobody
Posts: 2,471
We also have some QR flights on an Avios reward in October - and I'd rather those didn't become entirely non-changeable due to an exit from OW either.
Given that alliances affect purchase decisions up to a year out, a year-long exit transition would seem like the sensible thing to do - but [having admittedly not followed it particularly closely] it doesn't necessarily seem that's what happened over in ST.
Like most here, I'm fairly hopeful that AAB and QR won't actually follow through on this. It seems like it would put them in a very isolated position with the blockade still cutting them off from what were supposedly some lucrative markets in the Gulf area. One would intuitively think that leaving Oneworld would have far more impact on QR than on AA or QF, though maybe that's not the case.
Jan 16, 2019, 9:17 am
#129
Join Date: Feb 2018
Programs: EC Silver FC Silver
Posts: 34
Indeed, Tim Cook would have to eat his words if EK were to join (accepting he probably has less say in his airline than AAB has in QR).
No chance QR would let them take their place either way. It would take a strong CEO to stick-it to a 10% shareholder (CX and LA), and a crazy one to stick-it to a 20% shareholder (BA and IB). AA's position is harder to predict, they might welcome the EK customer base despite all the lobbying.
Perhaps AAB was hoping other members would run forward and offer their support, though that was always unlikely given Qatar seem to get more out of Oneworld (credibility, preferential treatment in disregarding Oneworld member benefits, a large incentivised customer base) than they give back (limited local routes, easy status for tier point chasers like me, long haul competition to key hubs).
I hope they stay, but doubt I am alone in saying my loyalty will be with my national carrier (/short-haul dominant carrier), and their given alliance (so BA and OneWorld).
No chance QR would let them take their place either way. It would take a strong CEO to stick-it to a 10% shareholder (CX and LA), and a crazy one to stick-it to a 20% shareholder (BA and IB). AA's position is harder to predict, they might welcome the EK customer base despite all the lobbying.
Perhaps AAB was hoping other members would run forward and offer their support, though that was always unlikely given Qatar seem to get more out of Oneworld (credibility, preferential treatment in disregarding Oneworld member benefits, a large incentivised customer base) than they give back (limited local routes, easy status for tier point chasers like me, long haul competition to key hubs).
I hope they stay, but doubt I am alone in saying my loyalty will be with my national carrier (/short-haul dominant carrier), and their given alliance (so BA and OneWorld).
Jan 16, 2019, 5:59 pm
#130
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: BOS/UTH
Programs: AA LT PLT; QR GLD; Bonvoy LT TIT
Posts: 12,753
Jan 17, 2019, 2:19 am
#132
Join Date: Feb 2018
Programs: EC Silver FC Silver
Posts: 34
Not suggesting it is QR's fault. I hope they stay, even though I decided to earn my TPs with AA this year (will probably be running back to QR in tears... if they are still OW).
Last edited by citytom; Jan 17, 2019 at 3:59 am
Jan 17, 2019, 11:52 am
#133
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: AMS
Programs: BAEC Silver, Flying Blue Gold, TK M&S Nobody
Posts: 2,471
Have had a similar last year - mostly going west with AA rather than east with QR. Still, the option to basicallly go straight to silver with one QR trip would surely take me back ... if not for the nagging possibility of QR leaving Oneworld and leaving me TP-less. Given that my status is (almost) entirely self-funded, getting a J holiday ought to be enough, but like many on here it wouldn’t be entirely without a twinge of regret...!
Jan 17, 2019, 11:36 pm
#134
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 842
Indeed, Tim Cook would have to eat his words if EK were to join (accepting he probably has less say in his airline than AAB has in QR).
No chance QR would let them take their place either way. It would take a strong CEO to stick-it to a 10% shareholder (CX and LA), and a crazy one to stick-it to a 20% shareholder (BA and IB). AA's position is harder to predict, they might welcome the EK customer base despite all the lobbying.
Perhaps AAB was hoping other members would run forward and offer their support, though that was always unlikely given Qatar seem to get more out of Oneworld (credibility, preferential treatment in disregarding Oneworld member benefits, a large incentivised customer base) than they give back (limited local routes, easy status for tier point chasers like me, long haul competition to key hubs).
I hope they stay, but doubt I am alone in saying my loyalty will be with my national carrier (/short-haul dominant carrier), and their given alliance (so BA and OneWorld).
No chance QR would let them take their place either way. It would take a strong CEO to stick-it to a 10% shareholder (CX and LA), and a crazy one to stick-it to a 20% shareholder (BA and IB). AA's position is harder to predict, they might welcome the EK customer base despite all the lobbying.
Perhaps AAB was hoping other members would run forward and offer their support, though that was always unlikely given Qatar seem to get more out of Oneworld (credibility, preferential treatment in disregarding Oneworld member benefits, a large incentivised customer base) than they give back (limited local routes, easy status for tier point chasers like me, long haul competition to key hubs).
I hope they stay, but doubt I am alone in saying my loyalty will be with my national carrier (/short-haul dominant carrier), and their given alliance (so BA and OneWorld).
Jan 19, 2019, 3:41 am
#135
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: London
Programs: Hilton, IHG - BA, GA, LH, QR, SV, TK
Posts: 17,008
Perhaps AAB was hoping other members would run forward and offer their support, though that was always unlikely given Qatar seem to get more out of Oneworld (credibility, preferential treatment in disregarding Oneworld member benefits, a large incentivised customer base) than they give back (limited local routes, easy status for tier point chasers like me, long haul competition to key hubs).