QF strategy in 2009 (the year after the wings fell off)
 

An interesting story in The Age today about QF, with some analyst comments (a bit different perspective than pax have), full story titled "Qantas, the year the wings fell off" is at http://business.theage.com.au/busine...59.html?page=1

They say, in part,
"Qantas would be in real trouble if it weren't for Jetstar. I think it would be on the brink of collapse. It would have been murdered in the domestic market and it wouldn't have had the options internationally."

And go on to mention the MH merger in that context.

Has QF been telling analysts that the future is in lowered labour costs, by going offshore if it has to? You be the judge. Certainly QF is getting delivery of a lot of nice new airplanes during a downturn in travel (next 2 years) and will have a fuel efficient fleet if it can get the loads up on the A380s and 787s. My own theory is that the allure of the BA merger was to get A380s flying LHR-JFK-SYD-LHR (a thrue RTW flight, just as PanAm did).

50% of the stories in the media about QF so called troubles were not even news worthy and another 40% deserved to be no earlier than page 65 in the paper.

Does it cost money to obtain a copy of the SMH? If so is not that a fraud.

Which is why I sourced The Age and not SMH :)

Sadly they are identical except for the order of the stories which reflect story relevance to either the VIC or NSW markets. 20-30 years ago The Age was a very decent paper although sadly it is now more skin to the Daily Mail here in the UK.

If you want a decent Aussie paper there really is only the AFR or at a push The Australian.

My view is 2009 is going to be a difficult year anyway for businesses generally and this will reflect negatively on the airline industry. Travel is one of the first budgets to be cut and leisure travel which is really a discretionary spend soon follows. In addition, we all know that Qantas is not the lowest priced carrier so they will have increased completion for a decreasing leisure travel dollar.

Qantas has a number of things going for it:

A successful launch of Jetstar
The ability to move mainline Qantas routes - both domestic and international - over to the low cost Jetstar. This is a powerful option in a falling market
The drawing power of the ‘Qantas’ name both domestically and internationally
A new CEO from the successful Jetstar brand – not part of the old guard
A new hands on Chairperson who is not part of the airline industry club
A replacement fleet is starting to arrive – this can be viewed as a positive of negative in the current climate. My view is on the positive side

All in all, I think Qantas are well placed to withstand whatever 2009 will bring.