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How real was the August "liquid bomb" threat?

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Old Nov 10, 2006, 11:44 am
  #16  
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
The Emperor: "I sense Lord Vader is in danger."
orthis story about a spinmeister
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 11:46 am
  #17  
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Originally Posted by dodo
How real? Duped by Musharraf who is playing a very dirty game JMHO
I agree with you 100%.
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 12:11 pm
  #18  
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Originally Posted by Bart
As I've stated before, seems to me that we should be taking ETD samples of bottles and containers over a certain size (whatever a "standard" size is; I think a good place to start is with 8 ounces since that is the standard serving size). If they do not alarm the ETD, then permit them into the sterile area.
I'm sorry, Bart, but you are being reasonable and intelligent. That is a violation of the SOP.

I'd add one thing to what you wrote- instead of dumping the puffer program, they should work with the manufacturers to make them reliable, and fast track that program. The sooner the WTMD's can be replaced with puffers, the better for everyone. (and at the same time they should develop huge puffers for cargo)
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 12:12 pm
  #19  
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Originally Posted by dodo
How real? Duped by Musharraf who is playing a very dirty game JMHO
Only Dubya would think a "friend" is real when he says "be my friend, or I'll kick your a$$ back to the stone age"

Even if there *was* some credibility to support the contention that these guys were ready to pull off their attack, there is more than ample evidence to suggest it would not have worked, if attempted.

Of course the government says 'trust us' - and refuses to disclose even a modicum of detail that might convince naysayers that the attack plan was actually plausable. "We can't for National Security purposes", they say.

I think we can be given a gist of what they actually found without releasing a blueprint to help someone else try it out.
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 1:02 pm
  #20  
 
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Originally Posted by MKEbound
Not a single plane ticket had been bought.

Some of these people didn't even have passports.
I don't disagree with what you are saying - however I was merely stating that I believe they were planning - in addition I never mentioned of those that were arrested who were aiding and abetting, and who would actully commit the crime.

As I say lets wait until the facts come out. In the UK facts relating to the case are kept out of the public domain until the trial so as not to predjuidice the jury. Trial by media would not give them a fair trial.

Originally Posted by L-1011
Yeah, just like I am preapring to board a flight to the moon. I don't have the ticket yet and I don't have the necessary permits, but I am preparing.
But do remember that I can purchase a ticket for a flight to the US anytime and get a passport very quickly. I believe the shoe bomber on the AA flight from CDG did just this.

Getting a ticket and permit for the moon are not the same.

Originally Posted by Bart
I'm not poo-pooing the concept of liquid explosives; I'm just saying that it takes more than just a baggie full of 3 oz containers ostensibly labelled as mouthwash, toothpaste and saline solution to whip up a batch of explosives.
The 3oz rule came into force post August - A previous terrorist attack used this method on a plane and it was 12oz Contact Lens Solution bottle. It wasn't unusual before August for people to carry quite a lot of liquid in their hand luggage. In addition how long does it take to mix two liquids?
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 1:13 pm
  #21  
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Originally Posted by Dan Dare
In addition how long does it take to mix two liquids?
It's not the length of time or the size of the containers. It's the practicality or realism of someone being able to take bottles of dangerous noxious chemicals with their inherent instability and strong odors into the lavatory undetected (or mix them at their seat), mix them into an explosive brew, then connect, rig and detonate a fuse to explode the mixture.

It's only that easy in Bugs Bunny cartoons - not in real life.

Could such a plot be planned? Sure. Is it practical to carry out? Not really. Is it a big enough threat to justify what the TSA is doing? Not even close.

There are chemical trace analyzers on the market right now that would render the entire question of this threat moot. Did the TSA buy any of them? Not even one that I'm aware of.
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 1:21 pm
  #22  
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Originally Posted by Dan Dare
.
In addition how long does it take to mix two liquids?
Mixing just liquids is not a very difficult task, but to use the
liquid to do what they claimed the 8/10 suspects were trying to
do.. was next to impossible in the mentioned circumstances.
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 1:30 pm
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Not at all

If you know some chemistry you know that the alleged plan is complete bogus.

YOu need to keep the stuff seperate, and the nyou need to mix it while having cooled at 34F. For this you need about 10 pounds of ice as the mixing increase tmeprature. AS oyu need to mix it slowly, dripping it into the mixtur, this takes about 3 hrs. If oyu are too eager the whole thing just creates a big nasty flame and oyu burn your face...

Can you imagine a FA hading a few gnetlemen a few pounds of ice and keeping them in the lav for a few hours so they are not disturbed ????
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 1:33 pm
  #24  
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Originally Posted by Gargoyle
I'm sorry, Bart, but you are being reasonable and intelligent. That is a violation of the SOP.

I'd add one thing to what you wrote- instead of dumping the puffer program, they should work with the manufacturers to make them reliable, and fast track that program. The sooner the WTMD's can be replaced with puffers, the better for everyone. (and at the same time they should develop huge puffers for cargo)
That too makes too much sense. And given the insecure security lunatics still run the asylum even as they have an interest in security -- job security -- Chertoff and Hawley will have to haul you both off for "homeland security re-training".
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 1:41 pm
  #25  
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Originally Posted by Dan Dare
As I say lets wait until the facts come out. In the UK facts relating to the case are kept out of the public domain until the trial so as not to predjuidice the jury. Trial by media would not give them a fair trial.
I agree with your final statement, but it's members of the UK establishment themselves who are leaking out enough facts and plenty of conjecture to have a default "trial by media" anyway.
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 2:03 pm
  #26  
 
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Originally Posted by bocastephen
It's not the length of time or the size of the containers. It's the practicality or realism of someone being able to take bottles of dangerous noxious chemicals with their inherent instability and strong odors into the lavatory undetected (or mix them at their seat), mix them into an explosive brew, then connect, rig and detonate a fuse to explode the mixture.
I can't find the reference now (and my memory may be at fault), but I believe the mixing was to be done in the airport after passing security but prior to boarding. Which only makes it slightly more feasible.
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 2:28 pm
  #27  
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Originally Posted by Wally Bird
I can't find the reference now (and my memory may be at fault), but I believe the mixing was to be done in the airport after passing security but prior to boarding. Which only makes it slightly more feasible.
I'm sure the activity and smells would arouse the suspicion of more than a few people, even if it was done quietly in the restroom.

They could still do this - 5 people with 5x3oz bottles each would yield 75 total oz of material. They could purchase a larger bottle airside, empty its contents down the sink and mix their brew.
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 2:39 pm
  #28  
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Originally Posted by MKEbound
Not a single plane ticket had been bought.

Some of these people didn't even have passports.
That they hadn't purchased plane tickets doesn't tell us much. If you're willing to die, you're also probably willing to cough up the extra bucks inside of the 21 day advance purchase window.

Some not having passports doesn't tell us much, either. Maybe they weren't going to fly. Or maybe they were going to get expedited passports.

In any event, whether they're two days, two weeks or two months away from the plot, they need to be disrupted.
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 2:46 pm
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by Doppy
That they hadn't purchased plane tickets doesn't tell us much. If you're willing to die, you're also probably willing to cough up the extra bucks inside of the 21 day advance purchase window.

Some not having passports doesn't tell us much, either. Maybe they weren't going to fly. Or maybe they were going to get expedited passports.

In any event, whether they're two days, two weeks or two months away from the plot, they need to be disrupted.
Okay, but in addition to never buying a plane ticket, they also had never built a bomb or even figured out how to build a bomb.

This was a group of bad guys, sitting around and dreaming up ways to attack a plane.

How often do we do the same thing here on Flyertalk while discussing aviation security?

Just because they had motive and talked about something doesn't make it a credible threat. If they were on trial in the US I think we would have a hard time convicting them of anything without bending the rules and declaring them "enemy combatants"
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Old Nov 10, 2006, 2:52 pm
  #30  
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Originally Posted by Doppy
That they hadn't purchased plane tickets doesn't tell us much. If you're willing to die, you're also probably willing to cough up the extra bucks inside of the 21 day advance purchase window.

Some not having passports doesn't tell us much, either. Maybe they weren't going to fly. Or maybe they were going to get expedited passports.

In any event, whether they're two days, two weeks or two months away from the plot, they need to be disrupted.
These guys were not that well financed and there's no evidence that a big chunk of new money was coming there way to facilitate the plot. About timing of disruption, there's bad timing, good timing and great timing for disruption, but I'm not going to characterize that one. However, the aftermath of the arrests in "the UK matter" was a knee-jerk overreaction, a knee-jerk overreaction to a threat that was not new in its concept and not imminent in its lates manifestation. As I've alluded to earlier, the more serious of the alleged plotters were not even clear on how exactly to pull this off.
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