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Originally Posted by TSAMGR
Speculation
As for how Europe is reacting better to post-9/11, see here... http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=353371 |
Originally Posted by law dawg
Disagree. Knives worked spectacularly well on 9/11. And they will work well again unless the 1)passengers, 2) FAMS and/or 3) the crew were willing to surrender their meat to the metal to stop them.
Originally Posted by law dawg
This is the problem with deterence - you may never know what you stopped. Sometimes you will, but mostly you will not. And you'll never get the press coverage that a horrific incident would have.
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Originally Posted by Bart
TSA does need to improve. However, there's a delicate balance between risk management and risk avoidance.
Risk avoidance is clearly the easier of the two: if it remotely presents a potential threat, then don't let it aboard. The problem with that approach is, as pointed out previously, that items as innocent as ball point pens would have to be prohibited because they could be potentially used as weapons for gouging eyes, stabbing the carotid artery or reinforcing a jab to the solar plexis. The danger in advocating a risk avoidance approach is that you can never draw the line between a reasonable measure of security and its outrageous extreme. You can always justify increasing security. Statements, like those of Michael Boyd, tend to suggest a risk avoidance approach when he says, "we've accomplished almost nothing." |
Originally Posted by FliesWay2Much
I HAVE read it and I wasn't terribly impressed on this particular issue. It would take too long to explain why I believe (and why many of my colleagues in my Air War College seminar believe) his numbers were taken out of context and didn't adequately address such key aspects as demographics, tactics & doctrine, force structure, etc, changes that make it virtually impossible, or irrelevant, to normalize the statistics for comparative purposes. I know you base most of your argument on 4 flights and a couple of hundred people in total. But, that's hardly enough data points to draw any sort of quantitative and defendable comparison.
I also base my argument on other events (Russian school incident, for incidence) where they outcome is equally pre-ordained (ie-the hostages are pretty sure they will die) and still do nothing. My argument is also based upon a decade and a half of training, observation and work in the field of human violence, having seen the elephant myself. Of course my argument is much more "quantitative and defendable" than yours, in that yours has happened only one time in recent history and we have several incidents where they did not fight back. I do hope I am wrong, but the evidence to date does not give me hope. |
Originally Posted by Bart
Instances of women who are weaing only a bra underneath a leather coat, for example, can be handled discreetly in private screening as exceptions to the outer garment removal rule. What the Dallas News article is suggesting is that all passengers undergo some measure of ETD screening of their bodies. That's impractical and opens a wide range of privacy issues.
What do you mean by "handled discreetly in private screening"? Do you envision all of these women having to strip to their undergarments in the presence of screeners? What about billowy skirts? Should women have to remove those too? Why exactly does the TSA make any distinction between outer garments and regular garments? I have plenty of outer garments which are tightly fitted and plenty of regular garments that are blousy, billowy, et cetera and could conceal large volumes of material. It seems a distinction without a difference. When you suggest investigating "bulges" that seems to imply we will have to wear form-fitting clothes exclusively at a checkpoint, because that's the only way you're going to notice bulges. Most people dress specifically to hide their personal bulges. Why is ETD screening of bodies impractical? I thought puff-of-air detectors qualified as ETD screening of bodies? |
Originally Posted by stimpy
No more speculation than a FAM would respond better. I personally think I would respond better than a FAM since I have no one to answer to. How many FAM's have killed a man? All the range training in the world can't help you there. And I had better be right since a very few percentage of flights in the world have FAM's.
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Originally Posted by Spiff
The only reason they worked is because people cooperated with terrorists and pilots opened the cockpit doors. Broken wine bottles/glasses would have worked equally as well, as would have martial arts. Now, no one will cooperate with terrorists and the cockpit door will remain closed. Ergo, the continued Great Sharp and Pointy Object Search is an utter waste of time and resources.
Martial arts will lose to an edged weapon almost every time, and I say that as a 15 year experienced MA (muy thai, BJJ, JKD). There have still been no terrorists arrested because they were carrying guns. |
Originally Posted by law dawg
The FAMs have a ton of training that you do not have and the overwhelming majority have years of experience in the field and with violence. What training have you had? When was the last time someone tried to kill you? When was the last shooting/stabbing/assault you were in? You think the HR guy in 2E that had 3 Bloody Mary's and is asleep with his shoes off is the better choice...? Not moi.....
Actually I have a fair amount of experience in violent crowd control so I'm sure of how I will react. And yes many passengers will not be in shape or have the will to act. But I believe that enough will on most any flight in the world. That's why I haven't been afraid at all to fly after 9/11. |
Originally Posted by law dawg
So let any knife on then?
Yet you could walk into any crowded narrow bar and kill several people with a small knife before you were restrained. Should we ban all sharp objects from public places? Should we all live in rubber rooms so we won't hurt ourselves? |
Originally Posted by stimpy
No, we didn't (knowingly) let Bowie knives on board pre-9/11. But it's ridiculous to not allow tiny knives, cuticle scissors and other small objects. Yes you could possibly slit one throat with scissors, but no way could you take over a plane anymore. That attack is gone forever.
Yet you could walk into any crowded narrow bar and kill several people with a small knife before you were restrained. Should we ban all sharp objects from public places? Should we all live in rubber rooms so we won't hurt ourselves? And as for "gone forever" you are speculating. And there is a distinct difference between killing a lot of people on a plane in a terroristic attack than killing twice as many in a bar. That is why one is a national security item and one is not, merely tragic. |
Originally Posted by law dawg
Well, his data is pretty instructive to me, seeing how it was adapted by the military itself and training regimens adpoted across the board (pop-up targets, stress training, silhoutte targets, etc) in military and LE circles and the results speak for themselves.
I also base my argument on other events (Russian school incident, for incidence) where they outcome is equally pre-ordained (ie-the hostages are pretty sure they will die) and still do nothing. My argument is also based upon a decade and a half of training, observation and work in the field of human violence, having seen the elephant myself. Of course my argument is much more "quantitative and defendable" than yours, in that yours has happened only one time in recent history and we have several incidents where they did not fight back. I do hope I am wrong, but the evidence to date does not give me hope. You're obviously passionate about your profession and your ability to protect & serve. Most people, I would assume, are grateful. However, don't discount for a nanosecond the ability for the untrained person to do extraordinary things -- even without any formal training. The people on Flight 93, in the 25 minutes before they acted, needed to sort through all of the doctrine and tactics military and police forces take decades to develop and refine. From all accounts, it appears that they effectively executed a couple of the doctrinal fundamentals: element of surprise and concentration of firepower. On the other hand, a couple of highly-trained FAMs armed to the teeth are no match for an adversary who effectively employs some of the elements of doctrine I noted above. I won't get into a further discussion about defendable arguments. Our experience bases put us light-years apart on the subject. |
Originally Posted by GradGirl
Why is ETD screening of bodies impractical? I thought puff-of-air detectors qualified as ETD screening of bodies?
The lawyers and the public probably won't tolerate body cavity searches (rightly so) of 85-year-old women, 3-year-old children, and in general innocent US citizens who happen to have used the wrong kind of lotion that day. And from a risk-avoidance and CYA standpoint, it's better to not detect the explosive than to detect it with an ETD and fail to stop it. |
Originally Posted by FliesWay2Much
You have to approach this from a broad perspective and put figures in context. Obviously, you have your experience base which sounds like it's on the pointy end of the spear. That's fine for one-on-one engagements with a bad guy. But, any military planner (including this one) will tell you that one-on-one engagements (soldier-soldier, aircraft-aircraft, ship-ship) is an incredibly inefficient means to prevail in combat. It's all about doctrine and how to employ it.... factors such as mass, concentration of firepower, element of surprise, etc. By the time you get to shooting pop-up targets and executing your capture of the bad guy, all of this has been thought out and tested in simulations and in realistic scenarios and updated as a result of real-world experience...hence my previous comments on various threads about fighting the next war rather than the last one.
You're obviously passionate about your profession and your ability to protect & serve. Most people, I would assume, are grateful. However, don't discount for a nanosecond the ability for the untrained person to do extraordinary things -- even without any formal training. The people on Flight 93, in the 25 minutes before they acted, needed to sort through all of the doctrine and tactics military and police forces take decades to develop and refine. From all accounts, it appears that they effectively executed a couple of the doctrinal fundamentals: element of surprise and concentration of firepower. We abandoned civilian militias because professional military is demonstrable superior. This is the concept I am addressing here. On the other hand, a couple of highly-trained FAMs armed to the teeth are no match for an adversary who effectively employs some of the elements of doctrine I noted above. I won't get into a further discussion about defendable arguments. Our experience bases put us light-years apart on the subject. |
Originally Posted by law dawg
Tell you what, I take the musket and you take nothing. Want to bet on the winner? Tell you what yet again, I'll take the musket and 5 well-trained, experienced men with muskets and you take 100 without them and without training. Want to bet on who will win?
See my point? |
Originally Posted by stimpy
No more speculation than a FAM would respond better. I personally think I would respond better than a FAM since I have no one to answer to. How many FAM's have killed a man? All the range training in the world can't help you there. And I had better be right since a very few percentage of flights in the world have FAM's.
As for how Europe is reacting better to post-9/11, see here... http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=353371 If you are going to stand up against a group of hi-jackers make sure someone else stands up with you or you will be the sacrificial lamb. |
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