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Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]

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Old Mar 13, 2019, 10:20 am
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Last edit by: JDiver
Boeing 737 MAX 8 ET 302 registration ET-AVJ from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, was lost 10 March 2019 shortly after takeoff at 08:44L (05:44Z). There were no survivors.

Boeing 737 MAX 8 registration ET-AVJ performing flight ET-302 from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, departed Addis Ababa's runway 07R and was climbing out of Addis Ababa when the aircraft levelled off at about 9000 feet MSL, radar contact was lost shortly after at 08:44L (05:44Z). The aircraft wreckage was found near Ejere at approximate position N8.8772 E39.2512. No survivors were found.

In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
The incident appeared similar to the 29 October 2018 crash of Lion Air 610, operated by a B38M.

Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
Boeing 737 MAX and MCAS: See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.

355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (B38M) and at the time of the crash of ET 302 on 10 March 2019. ET also operates 10 Boeing 737-700 and 16 Boeing 737-800 aircraft as part of its fleet.

Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.

As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.

- Wikipedia (link)
7 Nov 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US carriers 30 days to comply with the AD note.

6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.

10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.

11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.

11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.

13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.

13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC

17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.

17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald

17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".

17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.

18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.

19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link

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Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]

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Old Mar 13, 2019, 4:28 pm
  #286  
 
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Originally Posted by s0ssos
This is a meaningless correlation. You can do that with lots of things. Like I can artificially link a graph of Boeing's stock and the temperature of the north pole. Is it related?
Boeing stock and temperature at the north pole both going up is actually probably fairly related :-p so maybe bad example.

But you're right, the inclusion of the Boeing stock was gratuitous. The real point was that there is a massive and fairly monotonic trend towards increased safety over a multi-decade time period, no matter what your gut tells you about how safety has taken a back seat these days in the name of profits. The data doesn't support that narrative. Safety is improving.

Safety is important, and it is logical to think safer planes mean more people fly. However, I think while the planes may be safer the conditions they fly in may be less safe. You have many upstart airlines buying planes that really don't know much about maintenance or safety. But they manage to do ok, most of the time, because the planes are built and designed so well.
Whatever the combo of regulators + manufacturers + airlines is doing is working really, really well. Looks like Boeing and Lion Air both made some missteps here (too early to say for ET) and they should be held to account and should be expected to improve.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 4:46 pm
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Curious if anybody has an answer to this. For all of the airlines that had their flights grounded at airports that aren't their home airports, would they get some sort of special price for the parking of the planes for an extended period of time? Because my understanding was that airports can charge a lot of money when a plane stays at an airport longer than scheduled, so just curious if there are special arrangements for such a situation.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 4:54 pm
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Originally Posted by AlwaysFlyStar
Curious if anybody has an answer to this. For all of the airlines that had their flights grounded at airports that aren't their home airports, would they get some sort of special price for the parking of the planes for an extended period of time? Because my understanding was that airports can charge a lot of money when a plane stays at an airport longer than scheduled, so just curious if there are special arrangements for such a situation.
They can get a special "ferry" flight certificate to bring it back to their home base or repair center (without passengers). Similar certificates are also issued for test flights and such once a repair has been approved.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 5:05 pm
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Originally Posted by JDiver
President Trump has issued an emergency order grounding all USA operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft.

All 355 delivered 737 MAX 8 aircraft worldwide are grounded until further notice.
371 according to Boeing.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 10:37 pm
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Originally Posted by ElephantGin
America being the last to ground them is shameful - they should have been the first. I wouldn't send the black box to them either - after all, Ethiopia wants the truth.
Assuming a persistent distrust of American authorities grows, I wonder if the likes of Boeing could conjur up future contractual terms giving them ownership/rights to the black box, or encrypt the data so only they can access it. Are there currently any "black box" ownership/legal issues, or is it the sole property of the aircraft owner to do as they please?
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Old Mar 14, 2019, 3:21 am
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This is unbelievable. Washingtonpost now reporting AA pilots met with Boeing last year, they demanded change and training, and the training Beoing later gave, was an ipad video that has nothing about MCAS.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...a61_story.html

AA 737M also have more sensors for AOA than WN and every other airlines, this is blatantly irresponsible, if Boeing puts more sensors on AA's fleet, why not others?
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Old Mar 14, 2019, 4:28 am
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Originally Posted by FlyingHighlander
Assuming a persistent distrust of American authorities grows, I wonder if the likes of Boeing could conjur up future contractual terms giving them ownership/rights to the black box, or encrypt the data so only they can access it. Are there currently any "black box" ownership/legal issues, or is it the sole property of the aircraft owner to do as they please?
Boeing doesn’t manufacture CVR/FDR units; they’re actually commercial off-the-shelf units made by several different manufacturers. Those manufacturers can be called to assist with data recovery on damaged memory modules, but for the majority of the data recoveries, the major investigation organizations of the world have the appropriate tools and knowledge to recover data themselves. It is not in the CVR/FDR manufactures’ interest to encrypt data.
That said, there are often numerous types of non-volatile memory recording devices on modern aircraft. Typically, these are used for maintenance purposes. If an aircraft has an engine issue, the first thing maintenance will do is plug into whatever electronic box the manual specifies and download the recorded fault data. This data can be much more detailed than what would be recorded on an FDR. This data is frequently encrypted and requires proprietary software to read. In the event of an accident, the manufacturer of that component will provide direct support to the investigation agencies as-needed. However, these maintenance related recorders are not crash hardened.

Legally, when an aircraft crashes in the US, it belongs to the NTSB until they release it.
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Old Mar 14, 2019, 6:08 am
  #293  
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Originally Posted by FlyingHighlander
Assuming a persistent distrust of American authorities grows, I wonder if the likes of Boeing could conjur up future contractual terms giving them ownership/rights to the black box, or encrypt the data so only they can access it. Are there currently any "black box" ownership/legal issues, or is it the sole property of the aircraft owner to do as they please?
In addition to what airmotive wrote, can you imagine any national aviation regulatory authority authorising on its territory planes where the manufacturer purports to deny them access to such data?
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Old Mar 14, 2019, 9:12 am
  #294  
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Topic check.

Just a reminder that the topic of this thread is the Ethiopian crash of a Boeing 737 Max 8 and issues related to the worldwide situation with the safety of this and related Boeing 737 Max types.

Some recent posts are getting us afield to issues far beyond this thread's topic, such as airport security and the passenger flying experience generally. They have been deleted. Going forward, let's please stay on topic per FT Rule 5. Thanks, Ocn Vw 1K, for the Senior Moderator team.
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Old Mar 14, 2019, 11:14 am
  #295  
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Originally Posted by FlyingHighlander
Assuming a persistent distrust of American authorities grows, I wonder if the likes of Boeing could conjur up future contractual terms giving them ownership/rights to the black box, or encrypt the data so only they can access it. Are there currently any "black box" ownership/legal issues, or is it the sole property of the aircraft owner to do as they please?
Originally Posted by ElephantGin
[OT comments redacted by moderator]

Really, Germany doesn't have the tools to examine a black box? That doens't sound phoned-in from the FAA... I'm sure they're drooling to get ahold of it and greenlight the Max back into the air..
The French BEA has agreed to recover the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes, by Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

There are multiple agencies involved in the investigation, led by the local Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority and the Ethiopian Transport Authority, with other stakeholders in accordance with ICAO Annex 13 5.27: the US NTSB because the aircraft is American, Boeing as manufacturer, other nations invited or experiencing losses, such as Canadian TSB because Canadian passengers died, and French BEA involved with the “black boxes” decoding.

The “black boxes” “belong” to the investigators after an accident; it’s governed by international law, the USA is a signatory. Disengagement, such as from the Climate Accords, would undoubtedly have severe implications for US aircraft manufacturers.

I’m satisfied the investigation will ultimately have straightforward - and ultimately beneficial - results.

Last edited by JDiver; Mar 14, 2019 at 11:21 am
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Old Mar 14, 2019, 11:40 am
  #296  
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Originally Posted by JDiver
The French BEA has agreed to recover the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes, by Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia.

.....
Thanks, did not know the inventor was an Aussie.
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Old Mar 14, 2019, 9:31 pm
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Since the only problem observed with the 737-Max-8 seems have been erratic flying after takeoff, (including pitching the nose downward), wouldn't it be safe to fly the planes without using the autopilot on and after take-off (until some substantial altitude had been obtained)? I had always assumed (incorrectly, I see) that auto pilot was normally engaged after an aircraft was in flight, and not on takeoff.
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Old Mar 14, 2019, 10:44 pm
  #298  
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Originally Posted by Diogenes1789
Since the only problem observed with the 737-Max-8 seems have been erratic flying after takeoff, (including pitching the nose downward), wouldn't it be safe to fly the planes without using the autopilot on and after take-off (until some substantial altitude had been obtained)? I had always assumed (incorrectly, I see) that auto pilot was normally engaged after an aircraft was in flight, and not on takeoff.
Hand flying is precisely the problem, because the MCAS will govern the flight and overrule the pilot with information from the (faulty, on Lion Air) AOA (angle of attack indicator) when the aircraft is flown manually.

Unless the two switches shown below are thrown past the stops into the CUT OUT position. Currently, if you don’t do that, you’re going to have a white knuckle fight with the airplane you’ll lose.

The MCAS software and operating manual changes seek to modify that.

For the past several months and in the aftermath of Lion Air Flight 610, Boeing has been developing a flight control software enhancement for the 737 MAX, designed to make an already safe aircraft even safer. This includes updates to the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control law, pilot displays, operation manuals and crew training. The enhanced flight control law incorporates angle of attack (AOA) inputs, limits stabilizer trim commands in response to an erroneous angle of attack reading, and provides a limit to the stabilizer command in order to retain elevator authority.

...

The FAA says it anticipates mandating this software enhancement with an Airworthiness Directive (AD) no later than April. We have worked with the FAA in development of this software enhancement. - Boeing, quoted by Aviation Herald
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Old Mar 15, 2019, 1:43 am
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Originally Posted by JDiver
Hand flying is precisely the problem, because the MCAS will govern the flight and overrule the pilot with information from the (faulty, on Lion Air) AOA (angle of attack indicator) when the aircraft is flown manually.

Unless the two switches shown below are thrown past the stops into the CUT OUT position. Currently, if you don’t do that, you’re going to have a white knuckle fight with the airplane you’ll lose.

The MCAS software and operating manual changes seek to modify that.

Okay, can I go off topic for sec and say how cool it is to have JDiver here?!? Such knowledgeable and informative posts! Lovin' me some FT! Thank you sir (ma'am?)! ^
I appreciate the time you take to explain things in detail!
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Old Mar 15, 2019, 4:08 am
  #300  
 
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Originally Posted by JDiver
Hand flying is precisely the problem, because the MCAS will govern the flight and overrule the pilot with information from the (faulty, on Lion Air) AOA (angle of attack indicator) when the aircraft is flown manually.

Unless the two switches shown below are thrown past the stops into the CUT OUT position. Currently, if you don’t do that, you’re going to have a white knuckle fight with the airplane you’ll lose.

The MCAS software and operating manual changes seek to modify that.
My understanding is MCAS kicks in at autopilot, but when pilot manually responds to the nose down, the required action is confusing if they are not aware of the situation (something about the mechanical operation is counter intuitive).
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