Mar 13, 2019, 10:20 am
Last edit by: JDiver
Boeing 737 MAX 8 ET 302 registration ET-AVJ from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, was lost 10 March 2019 shortly after takeoff at 08:44L (05:44Z). There were no survivors.
The incident appeared similar to the 29 October 2018 crash of Lion Air 610, operated by a B38M.
7 Nov 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US carriers 30 days to comply with the AD note.
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Boeing 737 MAX 8 registration ET-AVJ performing flight ET-302 from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, departed Addis Ababa's runway 07R and was climbing out of Addis Ababa when the aircraft levelled off at about 9000 feet MSL, radar contact was lost shortly after at 08:44L (05:44Z). The aircraft wreckage was found near Ejere at approximate position N8.8772 E39.2512. No survivors were found.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
Boeing 737 MAX and MCAS: See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (B38M) and at the time of the crash of ET 302 on 10 March 2019. ET also operates 10 Boeing 737-700 and 16 Boeing 737-800 aircraft as part of its fleet.
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]
Mar 13, 2019, 9:21 am
#257
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 6,349
Now 2 US Flight Attendant Unions call for grounding the plane. Won't be long before someone in the US blinks.
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...eings-737-max/
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...eings-737-max/
Mar 13, 2019, 9:35 am
#258
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 40
I think many of us on here would rather take our chances running back and forth on a busy freeway at night - rather than ride in a MAX... At least we would feel we have some control over our survival. In a Max you have no control and no idea what might malfunction - you just know it might happen within the first few min and be totally screwed.
Mar 13, 2019, 9:47 am
#259
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Los Angeles, USA
Programs: UA Plat-2MM, Marriott Life Titanium, Hyatt something
Posts: 1,888
Reasoning about whether to ground the aircraft type
As background, I'm an analyst/number cruncher and quite rational.
I think it is important when a plane crashes and the cause of the crash may plausibly be due to a design defect (hardware, software, or their interaction). I mean that a design defect contributes to a reasonable degree, as virtually all crashes involve a confluence of multiple bad factors at once (see Tenerife Airport Disaster, 1977, for a classic case of many bad factors at once).
In such a case, every plane of that type (or subtype) is usually at the same risk because the risk stems from a design defect.
In that case I think planes should be grounded until a reasonable determination can be made as to a design flaw and some reasonable mitigation applied.
There could be a short-term mitigation like pilot training on procedures or an MCAS shut off button added to the cockpit panel, followed by a long-term redesign like adding redundant AOA sensors and software to alarm the cockpit and disable MCAS when the redundant sensors indicate a discrepancy. After the Lion Air crash, Boeing has been working on a relevant software change and training change for pilots but I don't think either have been implemented, yet. Boeing has also been very justly criticized for not disclosing the existence and operation of these new systems in pilot training. That's not a good look for Boeing.
The reason for my thinking is not so much that the risk of a third aircraft crashing next week or next month is that high in absolute terms, but that such a potential crash would be preventable if the design defect is responsible and is not mitigated. Crashes that can reasonably be prevented should be prevented both to preserve human life and to maintain the public's confidence in the safety of air travel.
To return to the Tenerife Disaster example, although many highly unusual factors contributed to the extreme congestion and very poor weather at a tiny airport, significant responsibility was ultimately laid on the radio communications and unclear use of language that led one 747 to take off while a second 747 was still on that runway shrouded in fog.
As a result, important and specific worldwide changes were made to radio communication protocols for take-off (quoting from the Wikipedia article):
Even though the specific circumstances that caused Tenerife's loss of two 747s at once is extremely unlikely to ever be repeated in my opinion, the change above in communications has improved air safety for all flights, most especially when operations are far from routine at the airfield. In that case, the type and design of the aircraft was not a significant issue, but the protocol for communication was, and it was changed.
I hope this explains my thinking and I'm happy to discuss further if anyone is interested.
I think it is important when a plane crashes and the cause of the crash may plausibly be due to a design defect (hardware, software, or their interaction). I mean that a design defect contributes to a reasonable degree, as virtually all crashes involve a confluence of multiple bad factors at once (see Tenerife Airport Disaster, 1977, for a classic case of many bad factors at once).
In such a case, every plane of that type (or subtype) is usually at the same risk because the risk stems from a design defect.
In that case I think planes should be grounded until a reasonable determination can be made as to a design flaw and some reasonable mitigation applied.
There could be a short-term mitigation like pilot training on procedures or an MCAS shut off button added to the cockpit panel, followed by a long-term redesign like adding redundant AOA sensors and software to alarm the cockpit and disable MCAS when the redundant sensors indicate a discrepancy. After the Lion Air crash, Boeing has been working on a relevant software change and training change for pilots but I don't think either have been implemented, yet. Boeing has also been very justly criticized for not disclosing the existence and operation of these new systems in pilot training. That's not a good look for Boeing.
The reason for my thinking is not so much that the risk of a third aircraft crashing next week or next month is that high in absolute terms, but that such a potential crash would be preventable if the design defect is responsible and is not mitigated. Crashes that can reasonably be prevented should be prevented both to preserve human life and to maintain the public's confidence in the safety of air travel.
To return to the Tenerife Disaster example, although many highly unusual factors contributed to the extreme congestion and very poor weather at a tiny airport, significant responsibility was ultimately laid on the radio communications and unclear use of language that led one 747 to take off while a second 747 was still on that runway shrouded in fog.
As a result, important and specific worldwide changes were made to radio communication protocols for take-off (quoting from the Wikipedia article):
Air traffic instruction should not be acknowledged solely with a colloquial phrase such as "OK" or even "Roger" (which simply means the last transmission was received), but with a readback of the key parts of the instruction, to show mutual understanding. The phrase "take off" is now spoken only when the actual takeoff clearance is given or when cancelling that same clearance (i.e. "cleared for take-off" or "cancel take-off clearance"). Up until that point, aircrew and controllers should use the phrase "departure" in its place, e.g. "ready for departure". Additionally, an ATC clearance given to an aircraft already lined-up on the runway must be prefixed with the instruction "hold position".
I hope this explains my thinking and I'm happy to discuss further if anyone is interested.
Last edited by LAX UA 1K; Mar 13, 2019 at 9:50 am Reason: add paragraph breaks and link
Mar 13, 2019, 10:03 am
#260
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Diamond, IC Amb
Posts: 5,508
Canada has grounded the MAX.
The US is the only nation left flying them.
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
Canada closes airspace to Boeing 737 MAX 8 planes; U.S. last major nation flying the jets
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...-8/3148847002/
Mar 13, 2019, 10:51 am
#261
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 40
All Max flights in the air right now - (live)
https://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/B38M
https://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/B38M
Mar 13, 2019, 11:00 am
#262
Join Date: May 2009
Location: ATL
Posts: 516
All Max flights in the air right now - (live)
https://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/B38M
https://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/B38M
Mar 13, 2019, 11:07 am
#264
Join Date: May 2009
Location: ATL
Posts: 516
Mar 13, 2019, 11:19 am
#265
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: DXB
Programs: TK Elite Plus
Posts: 413
That must be using data from flight plans rather than actual live data as the only place they are flying is in the US right now. Use the filter option at http://www.flightradar24.com to filter on B38M and B39M.
Mar 13, 2019, 12:22 pm
#267
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: YUL
Programs: AC SE (*A Gold), Bonvoy Platinum Elite, Hilton Gold, Amex Platinum / AP Reserve, NEXUS, Global Entry
Posts: 5,691
Mar 13, 2019, 12:57 pm
#269
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 581
Finally USA has decided to ground the 737 Max planes. Glad all the Boeing lobbying didn't work for long. Interesting to see what FAA's statement would be now seeing just earlier they were strongly supporting flying them. Is there an initial indication from the flight recorders which caused them to change course ? Or just gave into the pressure since every other country has temporarily banned them. I'm glad the families of ET302 now have Boeing's full attention. Got to give it up to China, whatever their initial reason for grounding maybe.
Mar 13, 2019, 1:06 pm
#270
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: YUL
Programs: AC SE (*A Gold), Bonvoy Platinum Elite, Hilton Gold, Amex Platinum / AP Reserve, NEXUS, Global Entry
Posts: 5,691