Mar 13, 2019, 10:20 am
Last edit by: JDiver
Boeing 737 MAX 8 ET 302 registration ET-AVJ from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, was lost 10 March 2019 shortly after takeoff at 08:44L (05:44Z). There were no survivors.
The incident appeared similar to the 29 October 2018 crash of Lion Air 610, operated by a B38M.
7 Nov 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US carriers 30 days to comply with the AD note.
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Boeing 737 MAX 8 registration ET-AVJ performing flight ET-302 from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, departed Addis Ababa's runway 07R and was climbing out of Addis Ababa when the aircraft levelled off at about 9000 feet MSL, radar contact was lost shortly after at 08:44L (05:44Z). The aircraft wreckage was found near Ejere at approximate position N8.8772 E39.2512. No survivors were found.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
Boeing 737 MAX and MCAS: See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (B38M) and at the time of the crash of ET 302 on 10 March 2019. ET also operates 10 Boeing 737-700 and 16 Boeing 737-800 aircraft as part of its fleet.
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]
Mar 12, 2019, 3:24 pm
#241
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No it doesn’t, and hasn’t since the aftermath of the Valujet investigation in 1996.
Mar 12, 2019, 3:48 pm
#243
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.....
, OTOH, is likely to have more of a problem in that the MAX constitutes close to ten percent of their fleet and they're already having difficulties with their mechanics union. It could also be interesting if large numbers of AA FAs refuse to work MAX flights, as they apparently have the right to do.
Originally Posted by flightradar24.com
Southwest Airlines fleet Number of aircraft in fleet: 754
TYPE NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT
B38M 34
B737 513
B738 207
Mar 12, 2019, 4:32 pm
#244
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Um, closer to four or five percent for WN
flightradar24.com/data/airlines/wn-swa/fleet
Not to mention that they certified the plane in the first place and grounding it may not look so good
flightradar24.com/data/airlines/wn-swa/fleet
Not to mention that they certified the plane in the first place and grounding it may not look so good
Mar 12, 2019, 4:55 pm
#245
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Yeah but a 3rd crash while they're looking for the cause of the 2nd would be how many times worse? And something like this HAS happened before (and it was with the only other aircraft model, the De Havilland Comet, to have 2 fatal crashes so soon after being released, and cost an additional 21 lives).
We armchair quarterbacks don't have the info needed to make a determination, but IMHO grounding MAXes may just be the prudent thing to do right now. Sadly, it's hard to trust CEOs these days
Mar 12, 2019, 9:45 pm
#246
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 40
I was objecting to the "2/350" statistic as being extremely misleading.
The truth is the overall chance of a flight crashing (hull loss) is something like 1 in 2,000,000. The chance of a 737 Max 8 crashing if we assume the worst case even though we don't have enough info on this crash yet is 1 in 250,000. Yes, it is 8 times more dangerous than a non Max 8 flight, but that doesn't make it dangerous. It's still extremely safe, about as safe as flying any model of plane was 20 years ago. Still safer than driving your car. It's something for the aviation community (regulators, manufacturers, carriers) to work on and work on fairly urgently, it is not an all out acute safety crisis.
The truth is the overall chance of a flight crashing (hull loss) is something like 1 in 2,000,000. The chance of a 737 Max 8 crashing if we assume the worst case even though we don't have enough info on this crash yet is 1 in 250,000. Yes, it is 8 times more dangerous than a non Max 8 flight, but that doesn't make it dangerous. It's still extremely safe, about as safe as flying any model of plane was 20 years ago. Still safer than driving your car. It's something for the aviation community (regulators, manufacturers, carriers) to work on and work on fairly urgently, it is not an all out acute safety crisis.
About the only thing worse I can think of - is the Twin Towers, or terrorist beheading.
I don't mean to be graphic - it's just that your statistical argument doesn't mean much in the face of how we weigh horrors or statistics when it comes to death by catastrophic airplane crash. Each one is uniquely horrifying and captures our imagination in a way that crashing your VW never will.
For 200,000+ years we were virtual-monkeys, now we're 35,000ft in air in a pressurized Coke can letting anonymous dudes fly us - no wonder we shudder.
Mar 13, 2019, 3:41 am
#248
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So I make that around 28 airlines that have grounded the 737 Max (or been forced to by their regulators). Some I'm sure taking the easy option and being good followers.
That leaves very few operators, almost all US/Canada based. Including American, Southwest, Air Canada, Sunwing and WestJet.
I suppose Boeing are trying to tread a fine line on liability.....must be expensive having $ billions of equipment sat idle. Not least if you are in a tight position financially, and have already suffered from the 787 issues.
Let's see.
That leaves very few operators, almost all US/Canada based. Including American, Southwest, Air Canada, Sunwing and WestJet.
I suppose Boeing are trying to tread a fine line on liability.....must be expensive having $ billions of equipment sat idle. Not least if you are in a tight position financially, and have already suffered from the 787 issues.
Let's see.
Mar 13, 2019, 4:59 am
#250
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So I make that around 28 airlines that have grounded the 737 Max (or been forced to by their regulators). Some I'm sure taking the easy option and being good followers.
That leaves very few operators, almost all US/Canada based. Including American, Southwest, Air Canada, Sunwing and WestJet.
I suppose Boeing are trying to tread a fine line on liability.....must be expensive having $ billions of equipment sat idle. Not least if you are in a tight position financially, and have already suffered from the 787 issues.
Let's see.
That leaves very few operators, almost all US/Canada based. Including American, Southwest, Air Canada, Sunwing and WestJet.
I suppose Boeing are trying to tread a fine line on liability.....must be expensive having $ billions of equipment sat idle. Not least if you are in a tight position financially, and have already suffered from the 787 issues.
Let's see.
Mar 13, 2019, 5:19 am
#251
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 75
Boeing/FAA really needs to think this long and hard. Most (90% via wikipedia) of these max planes are sold overseas. Do they really want to go down the road claiming only US pilots can fly this thing properly? They may as well just scratch the program now.
Mar 13, 2019, 5:34 am
#252
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Now 2 US Flight Attendant Unions call for grounding the plane. Won't be long before someone in the US blinks.
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...eings-737-max/
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...eings-737-max/
I don't think FAs know more about aircraft design and related relevant issues than random adults who are literate at the high school graduate level. If they were interested in the more technical aspects of flying or had ability in that area, they would be pilots.
In the USA, at least the AA FAs have a contract provision that implies they need not work MAX 8 flights (or any other route, aircraft types, etc.) if they don't want to do so. I don't know whether the same applies to WN FAs.
In the USA, at least the AA FAs have a contract provision that implies they need not work MAX 8 flights (or any other route, aircraft types, etc.) if they don't want to do so. I don't know whether the same applies to WN FAs.
Mar 13, 2019, 6:25 am
#253
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[left]I don't think FAs know more about aircraft design and related relevant issues than random adults who are literate at the high school graduate level. If they were interested in the more technical aspects of flying or had ability in that area, they would be pilots.
But the point being that unlike passengers, it's their workplace, and if they do not feel comfortable with flying on them, and a lot of them refuse to fly on Max, then it might have operational impacts.
In addition, I believe one of the pilots' unions in the US expressed concerns and told their members they were not obliged to fly the Max if they did not feel safe to do so (I just can't find the source right now, but I read that somewhere).
Last edited by LTN Phobia; Mar 13, 2019 at 8:46 am
Mar 13, 2019, 6:50 am
#254
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What a snooty comment.
Mar 13, 2019, 8:34 am
#255
Join Date: Sep 2014
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I'm upset that people are saying things like "death trap" and "2 out of 350 crash!!!" as if taking your seat in a Max 8 were equivalent to running back and forth across a busy freeway at night. I don't think it contributes to the conversation.
However, our imaginations take over
