Mar 13, 2019, 10:20 am
Last edit by: JDiver
Boeing 737 MAX 8 ET 302 registration ET-AVJ from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, was lost 10 March 2019 shortly after takeoff at 08:44L (05:44Z). There were no survivors.
The incident appeared similar to the 29 October 2018 crash of Lion Air 610, operated by a B38M.
7 Nov 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US carriers 30 days to comply with the AD note.
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Boeing 737 MAX 8 registration ET-AVJ performing flight ET-302 from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, departed Addis Ababa's runway 07R and was climbing out of Addis Ababa when the aircraft levelled off at about 9000 feet MSL, radar contact was lost shortly after at 08:44L (05:44Z). The aircraft wreckage was found near Ejere at approximate position N8.8772 E39.2512. No survivors were found.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
Boeing 737 MAX and MCAS: See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (B38M) and at the time of the crash of ET 302 on 10 March 2019. ET also operates 10 Boeing 737-700 and 16 Boeing 737-800 aircraft as part of its fleet.
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]
Mar 12, 2019, 11:02 am
#227
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,531
Even if all this speculation that the crashes are linked is true (which it could be) and the risk as of now remains the same, getting on a Max 8 before corrective action is taken is not like playing Russian Roulette.
Mar 12, 2019, 11:14 am
#228
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: SW WA
Posts: 3,886
My biggest concern continues to be that pilots over on both airlinepilotforums and pprune are debating with each other over what the best corrective course of action is should you have an MCAS/unstable pitch situation. That makes me extremely uncomfortable. Is the likelihood of this happening again relatively slim? Probably. Is the likelihood that your pilots can handle the situation if it happens again good? Honestly, I'm not sure. I'm a risk averse person by nature, so I'll be avoiding the MAX until this all gets sorted out.
Mar 12, 2019, 12:12 pm
#230
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Slightly to the left of center
Posts: 3,475
My biggest concern continues to be that pilots over on both airlinepilotforums and pprune are debating with each other over what the best corrective course of action is should you have an MCAS/unstable pitch situation. That makes me extremely uncomfortable. Is the likelihood of this happening again relatively slim? Probably. Is the likelihood that your pilots can handle the situation if it happens again good? Honestly, I'm not sure. I'm a risk averse person by nature, so I'll be avoiding the MAX until this all gets sorted out.
My concern is not the aircraft, more on the disagreement on corrective action of a MCAS on the aircraft. This is reason enough to avoid the MAX for now. The subsequent tweets by Boeing are worded in a way that helps me confirm I made the right decision.
Mar 12, 2019, 12:18 pm
#231
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 40
As stated, this is misleading. Even if these two crashes were caused by the same problem and the problem is with all the Max 8 airframes, it is not the case that 2 out of 350 flights have crashed. The Max 8s in service perform 8,500 flights every week, week after week. In the past year they've performed ~499,998 successful flights and 2 fatal crashes. That's really bad by commercial aviation standards but very good compared to, like, crossing the street. Or climbing a ladder. Or driving a car.
Even if all this speculation that the crashes are linked is true (which it could be) and the risk as of now remains the same, getting on a Max 8 before corrective action is taken is not like playing Russian Roulette.
Even if all this speculation that the crashes are linked is true (which it could be) and the risk as of now remains the same, getting on a Max 8 before corrective action is taken is not like playing Russian Roulette.
Can you imagine - you're all smug with your highbrow statistics and your board your MAX flight and then the worst happen? O, the irony.
Those first 15 min as you ascend in a Max plane - maybe the adrenaline-junkies and terminally depressed would enjoy that - not me.
Mar 12, 2019, 12:26 pm
#232
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: SF Bay Area
Programs: UA MileagePlus (Premier Gold); Hilton HHonors (Gold); Chase Ultimate Rewards; Amex Plat
Posts: 6,675
What about the FAA? They're supposed to take a conservative approach and put safety above all else in the case we don't know what's going on. Some folks at Boeing and at the FAA need to take a look at the report on the Challenger disaster and at the history of the De Havilland Comet. The burden of proof should be on the manufacturer to show that the plane is safe, and the plane should remain grounded until that happens. The burden of proof should NOT be on investigators to show that it's unsafe, and the plane should NOT be allowed to continue flying until it's shown to be unsafe. The only parallel in aviation history with two crashes in less than 6 months on a new model aircraft is with the Comet. Now this situation may turn out to be different. Maybe it was actually pilot error. But unless we can definitively prove that it was pilot error, there is no reason to risk people's lives.
Mar 12, 2019, 12:59 pm
#234
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
I see no dispute of his claim of an unbalanced aircraft. If you're an aerospace engineer, then show us why his concern is not valid.
Mar 12, 2019, 1:09 pm
#235
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,531
Sure, however - It should be ON PAR with other commercial aircraft (or better - hey, it's the newest kid on the block). Instead it's worse than the others it's replacing, and it's already having issues while still new. Agree, flying a Max is still safer than getting out of my claw-foot tub (statistically).. But I'd say flying a non MAX is safer than flying a MAX.. No?
Can you imagine - you're all smug with your highbrow statistics and your board your MAX flight and then the worst happen? O, the irony.
Those first 15 min as you ascend in a Max plane - maybe the adrenaline-junkies and terminally depressed would enjoy that - not me.
Can you imagine - you're all smug with your highbrow statistics and your board your MAX flight and then the worst happen? O, the irony.
Those first 15 min as you ascend in a Max plane - maybe the adrenaline-junkies and terminally depressed would enjoy that - not me.
I was objecting to the "2/350" statistic as being extremely misleading.
The truth is the overall chance of a flight crashing (hull loss) is something like 1 in 2,000,000. The chance of a 737 Max 8 crashing if we assume the worst case even though we don't have enough info on this crash yet is 1 in 250,000. Yes, it is 8 times more dangerous than a non Max 8 flight, but that doesn't make it dangerous. It's still extremely safe, about as safe as flying any model of plane was 20 years ago. Still safer than driving your car. It's something for the aviation community (regulators, manufacturers, carriers) to work on and work on fairly urgently, it is not an all out acute safety crisis.
Mar 12, 2019, 1:15 pm
#236
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Body in the CLE, soul still in New England
Programs: In 2023? Does it matter? SPG/Marriott: Plat; DL: Plat; B6: Mosaic
Posts: 2,979
Remember that in the US, the FAA has a dual mission, to promote airline travel as well as ensure safety. It's an inherent conflict of interest that is leading them, in this case, to be more conservative that a true regulatory body.
Mar 12, 2019, 1:31 pm
#237
Join Date: Jun 2008
Programs: TK*G (E+), IHG Plat Ambassador
Posts: 7,884
Mar 12, 2019, 1:37 pm
#238
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Posts: 5,693
Mar 12, 2019, 3:16 pm
#239
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: BA Gold
Posts: 487
The EU has now closed its airspace to the 737 MAX. Pretty soon the only place they will be allowed to fly is North America. It seems like American, Southwest and United are holding fast but there must be a limit to how long they can withstand peer pressure...and yes, I think Boeing's response shows a complete lack of awareness and insight and I am sure this would be playing out completely differently if an incident had occurred in US airspace.
Mar 12, 2019, 3:23 pm
#240
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Bainbridge Island, WA
Posts: 8,964
Now 2 US Flight Attendant Unions call for grounding the plane. Won't be long before someone in the US blinks.
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...eings-737-max/
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...eings-737-max/