Mar 13, 2019, 10:20 am
Last edit by: JDiver
Boeing 737 MAX 8 ET 302 registration ET-AVJ from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, was lost 10 March 2019 shortly after takeoff at 08:44L (05:44Z). There were no survivors.
The incident appeared similar to the 29 October 2018 crash of Lion Air 610, operated by a B38M.
7 Nov 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US carriers 30 days to comply with the AD note.
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Boeing 737 MAX 8 registration ET-AVJ performing flight ET-302 from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, departed Addis Ababa's runway 07R and was climbing out of Addis Ababa when the aircraft levelled off at about 9000 feet MSL, radar contact was lost shortly after at 08:44L (05:44Z). The aircraft wreckage was found near Ejere at approximate position N8.8772 E39.2512. No survivors were found.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
Boeing 737 MAX and MCAS: See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (B38M) and at the time of the crash of ET 302 on 10 March 2019. ET also operates 10 Boeing 737-700 and 16 Boeing 737-800 aircraft as part of its fleet.
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]
Mar 11, 2019, 4:44 am
#151
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Well the black box has been recovered. Now how long before some preliminary results are revealed?
I recall in years past it would take months before any details were released. But it seems to happen much faster these days, right?
I recall in years past it would take months before any details were released. But it seems to happen much faster these days, right?
Mar 11, 2019, 4:56 am
#152
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Depends on what happens on the part of Boeing the next few days. I think if their stock takes a hit, it will be stay in the news cycle a bunch more. If they are able to keep it low-profile, yep, we're assisting with the investigation, and investors don't get spooked, it will disappear relatively quickly until the preliminary report comes out. But if the preliminary findings say similar circumstances as the previous crash, they're gonna be hurting. "We told them how to run this exception procedure, should this occur" isn't going to cut it, because the fact it needs a special procedure is a problem, and the underlying issue causing this in the first place needs to be addressed.
Mar 11, 2019, 6:28 am
#153
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Correct - 737-900 is the "NG" version of the 737 not the "MAX" version.
Yes.
As I slept on this, I realised that my list was rather incomplete and ignored Boeing's contribution, so here's an update that should be added to the front end:
Yes.
As I slept on this, I realised that my list was rather incomplete and ignored Boeing's contribution, so here's an update that should be added to the front end:
- Boeing updates a 50+ year old design with much larger engines resulting in an aircraft design that is potentially unstable at higher angles of attack and thus requires software assistance in order to fly safely (MCAS).
- The MCAS system used by Boeing has no built-in sensor redundancy, so a single malfunctioning sensor can lead to the engagement of the MCAS system, pitching down the nose. This makes the aircraft difficult or impossible to control unless pilots remember in a panicky situation to use the runaway trim protocol.
- The FAA doesn't require and Boeing doesn't tell airlines or pilots about the MCAS system; simply relying on them being trained on general "runaway trim" to deal with any MCAS issues. This was likely an extremely rare occurence prior to MCAS.
Whatever happened here, I would be shocked if any 737 pilot would be unable to recognize and correctly react to MCAS failure just 5 months after Lion Air showed them what not to do.
Mar 11, 2019, 6:42 am
#154
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4. Every 737 pilot in the world reads about the Lion Air crash and becomes keenly aware of exactly how to react to an MCAS problem, possibly to the point where pilots might take incorrect action when a non-MCAS failure occurs.
Whatever happened here, I would be shocked if any 737 pilot would be unable to recognize and correctly react to MCAS failure just 5 months after Lion Air showed them what not to do.
Whatever happened here, I would be shocked if any 737 pilot would be unable to recognize and correctly react to MCAS failure just 5 months after Lion Air showed them what not to do.
Mar 11, 2019, 6:45 am
#155
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I would expect that Boeing have been doing exactly that since the Lion crash. But there are no quick fixes here. Things have to be tested, re-tested, re-fixed, etc. over and over again. That's on the ground. Then there is the air test with the new software and other related fixes.
Mar 11, 2019, 6:46 am
#156
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My thoughts with the passengers families. I was struggling to remember when I had last been on this aircraft, and I recalled it was Flydubai from Muscat to Dubai. Seemed a really good plane. Is it possible to find a list of all airlines that operate this aircraft?
Mar 11, 2019, 6:54 am
#157
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Here is a list of all operators:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...and_deliveries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...and_deliveries
Mar 11, 2019, 7:10 am
#159
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4. Every 737 pilot in the world reads about the Lion Air crash and becomes keenly aware of exactly how to react to an MCAS problem, possibly to the point where pilots might take incorrect action when a non-MCAS failure occurs.
Whatever happened here, I would be shocked if any 737 pilot would be unable to recognize and correctly react to MCAS failure just 5 months after Lion Air showed them what not to do.
Whatever happened here, I would be shocked if any 737 pilot would be unable to recognize and correctly react to MCAS failure just 5 months after Lion Air showed them what not to do.
Mar 11, 2019, 7:26 am
#160
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Here is a list of all operators:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...and_deliveries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...and_deliveries
There are a lot of "unidentified" customers who haven't taken any deliveries. Also, some of the names on the list look like they might be owners who would then least the aircraft to an airline.
I'm wondering whether we'll see anything noticeable in the data to indicate that customers are booking away from carriers that operate the MAX. Given schedule changes and how often aircraft are swapped around in the fleets of some carriers, unless you know that the MAX cannot be used on your route, someone wanting to avoid the MAX should avoid carriers that use it. This also would help to avoid the disruptions that will occur if/when airlines and/or regulatory agencies ground the MAX.
I'm wondering whether we'll see anything noticeable in the data to indicate that customers are booking away from carriers that operate the MAX. Given schedule changes and how often aircraft are swapped around in the fleets of some carriers, unless you know that the MAX cannot be used on your route, someone wanting to avoid the MAX should avoid carriers that use it. This also would help to avoid the disruptions that will occur if/when airlines and/or regulatory agencies ground the MAX.
Mar 11, 2019, 7:48 am
#161
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Came across the following website explaining the MACS funtionality quite in debt: https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-s...em-mcas-jt610/
Mar 11, 2019, 8:07 am
#162
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I have several Southwest segments coming up over the next couple of days and while I am far from a nervous flyer (I have a commercial pilots license), I am a bit concerned. And I can't figure out from the WN website which type(s) of 737 I am on. (Anyone know how to do that for Southwest?)
However your earlier post was helpful. I figure if the pilots are OK flying it, that's good enough for me.
Mar 11, 2019, 8:11 am
#163
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Absolutely, but the question is what to do in the meantime until the data is analysed: ground them or let them keep flying. So far the similarities that we know of between this crash and the earlier one are too coincidental for my comfort.
I have several Southwest segments coming up over the next couple of days and while I am far from a nervous flyer (I have a commercial pilots license), I am a bit concerned. And I can't figure out from the WN website which type(s) of 737 I am on. (Anyone know how to do that for Southwest?)
However your earlier post was helpful. I figure if the pilots are OK flying it, that's good enough for me.
I have several Southwest segments coming up over the next couple of days and while I am far from a nervous flyer (I have a commercial pilots license), I am a bit concerned. And I can't figure out from the WN website which type(s) of 737 I am on. (Anyone know how to do that for Southwest?)
However your earlier post was helpful. I figure if the pilots are OK flying it, that's good enough for me.
Mar 11, 2019, 8:18 am
#164
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Absolutely, but the question is what to do in the meantime until the data is analysed: ground them or let them keep flying. So far the similarities that we know of between this crash and the earlier one are too coincidental for my comfort.
I have several Southwest segments coming up over the next couple of days and while I am far from a nervous flyer (I have a commercial pilots license), I am a bit concerned. And I can't figure out from the WN website which type(s) of 737 I am on. (Anyone know how to do that for Southwest?)
However your earlier post was helpful. I figure if the pilots are OK flying it, that's good enough for me.
I have several Southwest segments coming up over the next couple of days and while I am far from a nervous flyer (I have a commercial pilots license), I am a bit concerned. And I can't figure out from the WN website which type(s) of 737 I am on. (Anyone know how to do that for Southwest?)
However your earlier post was helpful. I figure if the pilots are OK flying it, that's good enough for me.
Mar 11, 2019, 8:21 am
#165
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The ASA261 accident was blamed primarily on inadequate maintenance. One of the NTSB board members said, "This is a maintenance accident. Alaska Airlines' maintenance and inspection of its horizontal stabilizer activation system was poorly conceived and woefully executed. "