Mar 13, 2019, 10:20 am
Last edit by: JDiver
Boeing 737 MAX 8 ET 302 registration ET-AVJ from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, was lost 10 March 2019 shortly after takeoff at 08:44L (05:44Z). There were no survivors.
The incident appeared similar to the 29 October 2018 crash of Lion Air 610, operated by a B38M.
7 Nov 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US carriers 30 days to comply with the AD note.
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Boeing 737 MAX 8 registration ET-AVJ performing flight ET-302 from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, departed Addis Ababa's runway 07R and was climbing out of Addis Ababa when the aircraft levelled off at about 9000 feet MSL, radar contact was lost shortly after at 08:44L (05:44Z). The aircraft wreckage was found near Ejere at approximate position N8.8772 E39.2512. No survivors were found.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
Boeing 737 MAX and MCAS: See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (B38M) and at the time of the crash of ET 302 on 10 March 2019. ET also operates 10 Boeing 737-700 and 16 Boeing 737-800 aircraft as part of its fleet.
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]
Mar 10, 2019, 12:32 pm
#91
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Mar 10, 2019, 12:33 pm
#92
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ntv news article (RTL group):
https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Neues...e20898686.html
Translation
5 German dead acc. to German news, and ORF2 ZIB1 (Austrian public evening news) just reporting that 3 Austrian hospital doctors also dead
https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Neues...e20898686.html
Translation
5 German dead acc. to German news, and ORF2 ZIB1 (Austrian public evening news) just reporting that 3 Austrian hospital doctors also dead
Mar 10, 2019, 12:48 pm
#93
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I am reading that Ethiopian has an "excellent safety record in Africa". They have had, from a relatively small fleet, major jet crashes in 1996, 2010, and now 2019. The previous two went into the sea. No other African jet airline has had anything like that. It just shows what inaccuracies journalists write.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_...ays_Flight_295
"South African Airways Flight 295 was a commercial flight from Taiwan to South Africa. On 28 November 1987, the aircraft serving the flight, a Boeing 747 Combi named Helderberg, experienced a catastrophic in-flight fire in the cargo area, broke-up in mid-air, and crashed into the Indian Ocean east of Mauritius, killing all 159 people on board.[2]
[3] An extensive salvage operation was mounted to try to recover the flight data recorders, one of which was recovered from a depth of 4,900 metres (16,100 ft).
The official inquiry, headed by Judge Cecil Margo, was unable to determine the cause of the fire. This lack of a conclusion led to conspiracy theories being advanced in the years following the accident.[4"
....
Mar 10, 2019, 1:06 pm
#94
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I use the FlightView app. Your flight just shows -800. I fly WN frequently and whenever a Max-8 is used FlightView codes it as 7M8.
I think I’m going to start booking away from the Max-8 for the time being.
AA120 LAX-DFW was cancelled today. It shows -800 in FlightView. I wonder if it was a MAX-8 and AA decided to cancel it.
Mar 10, 2019, 1:08 pm
#95
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Mar 10, 2019, 1:44 pm
#98
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I notice that nobody said anything about the Crew. That aircraft left JNB early Sunday for ADD, then was turned around to depart for NBO. My heart goes out to the entire ET Crew, who, upon landing at whichever destination on Sunday morning and need to turn around back to ADD - considering that they are within acceptable working hours (time and duty), learn about the crash and may have had friends who operated the aircraft. They need to then operate back to base with a smile on their faces when the pax may not know what had happened. Or, for those pax who may have seen initial reports then become nervous when boarding and the flight becomes one emotional roller coaster for both Crew and pax.
Mar 10, 2019, 2:01 pm
#99
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Besides this being the second 737-8 MAX hull loss with fatalities, I wonder if the fact that there were passengers from over 30 different countries on the flight will impact the response/likelihood of the plane being grounded. By comparison, the passengers on JT610 were almost exclusively Indonesian citizens.
Mar 10, 2019, 2:02 pm
#100
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I personally would avoid flying on the MAX, but I also have a general fear of flying so I'm more affected by the psychology of it all.
From a statistical standpoint, how many flights has this plane had in total? Do any other current plane models have a similar record?
From a statistical standpoint, how many flights has this plane had in total? Do any other current plane models have a similar record?
The question is whether or not that is a bad thing. Human beings try to make sense of life, when many occurrences are random and simply have no rhyme or reason. At the end of the day, though, you live with yourself, so people make decisions that will make them "feel" safer. And they feel better because of that.
I doubt anybody here is truly logical. For example, everybody here believes you should do what you love, but everybody here doesn't actually practice that (e.g. spending lots of time on things that are hated).
(Kahneman and Tversky are pioneers in the field)
Mar 10, 2019, 2:06 pm
#101
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Someone earlier in this thread stated that 0.5% ( 2 out of 350, so there's been some rounding) of this aircraft model have crashed, but what percentage of all the Concords that were ever build have crashed? Yet it was viewed as safe until the CDG runway incident happened and possibly should have still been considered safe. Or we can look at the space shuttle for another example. One crashed (cold weather O ring failure at launch), but that one is a big fraction of the number that were build and also a relatively big fraction of the total number of space shuttle flights that were ever attempted.
It's hard to conclude much (if anything) from a few bad random draws from a distribution where the bad draws occur with extremely low frequency. For example, think about Hurricane Katrina and the "once in a hundred years" claim.
It's hard to conclude much (if anything) from a few bad random draws from a distribution where the bad draws occur with extremely low frequency. For example, think about Hurricane Katrina and the "once in a hundred years" claim.
Mar 10, 2019, 2:09 pm
#102
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Someone earlier in this thread stated that 0.5% ( 2 out of 350, so there's been some rounding) of this aircraft model have crashed, but what percentage of all the Concords that were ever build have crashed? Yet it was viewed as safe until the CDG runway incident happened and possibly should have still been considered safe. Or we can look at the space shuttle for another example. One crashed (cold weather O ring failure at launch), but that one is a big fraction of the number that were build and also a relatively big fraction of the total number of space shuttle flights that were ever attempted.
It's hard to conclude much (if anything) from a few bad random draws from a distribution where the bad draws occur with extremely low frequency. For example, think about Hurricane Katrina and the "once in a hundred years" claim.
It's hard to conclude much (if anything) from a few bad random draws from a distribution where the bad draws occur with extremely low frequency. For example, think about Hurricane Katrina and the "once in a hundred years" claim.
What you mean is with little information it is hard to make a good conclusion. Which is correct. But do you wait til more Boeing 737max crashes occur or you do something before you collect all the information? Or you wait and there aren't more crashes?
Corollary: if you decide to wait, and say it is safe, and later are proven wrong, are you liable?
Mar 10, 2019, 2:16 pm
#103
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Kurier - a leading Austrian newspaper
https://kurier.at/chronik/welt/flugz...erzt/400430716
Translation (scroll down)
"......The manufacturer Boeing, in any case, has already announced in a first statement that the current developments will be closely monitored. According to KURIER information from aviation circles on Sunday afternoon already first talks between the European and US aviation authorities run, whether a complete grounding of Fleet of all 737-MAX8 is coming....."
https://kurier.at/chronik/welt/flugz...erzt/400430716
Translation (scroll down)
"......The manufacturer Boeing, in any case, has already announced in a first statement that the current developments will be closely monitored. According to KURIER information from aviation circles on Sunday afternoon already first talks between the European and US aviation authorities run, whether a complete grounding of Fleet of all 737-MAX8 is coming....."
Mar 10, 2019, 2:37 pm
#104
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No, that's the wrong way to look at it.
What you mean is with little information it is hard to make a good conclusion. Which is correct. But do you wait til more Boeing 737max crashes occur or you do something before you collect all the information? Or you wait and there aren't more crashes?
Corollary: if you decide to wait, and say it is safe, and later are proven wrong, are you liable?
What you mean is with little information it is hard to make a good conclusion. Which is correct. But do you wait til more Boeing 737max crashes occur or you do something before you collect all the information? Or you wait and there aren't more crashes?
Corollary: if you decide to wait, and say it is safe, and later are proven wrong, are you liable?
By good conclusion, you seem to mean good decision and here I would argue that we need to define what good means.
In this example, I would argue that 2 out of 350 crashed still gives me a very imprecise estimate of the true probability, yet given the potential for a disasterous outcome, my risk aversion would cause me to make a very conservative decision here. However, I still can't conclude very much from the data we have.
In this example, I would argue that 2 out of 350 crashed still gives me a very imprecise estimate of the true probability, yet given the potential for a disasterous outcome, my risk aversion would cause me to make a very conservative decision here. However, I still can't conclude very much from the data we have.
Mar 10, 2019, 2:39 pm
#105
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Indeed.
And for the record, ET never agreed with the official investigation results by Lebanese authorities about the 2010 crash. There are interesting rumours it might have been inentionally bombed or exploauve materials exploded in the hold as eye witnesses reported a fireball. It also had 20 Hezbollah members on board giving further fuel to theories it might have been targetted the Mossad, or the terrorists had some explosives with them as cargo as they were heading to sleeper cells in Central Africa. Of course, these are rumours and must be taken with a pinch of salt, but given the mysterious circimstances of the 2010 crash it is interesting for sure.
I would certainly not hesitate flying ET, but would have a queasy feeling if I'd fly the MAX on any airline (recently had one on COPA). My thoughts are with the victims and their relatives.
And for the record, ET never agreed with the official investigation results by Lebanese authorities about the 2010 crash. There are interesting rumours it might have been inentionally bombed or exploauve materials exploded in the hold as eye witnesses reported a fireball. It also had 20 Hezbollah members on board giving further fuel to theories it might have been targetted the Mossad, or the terrorists had some explosives with them as cargo as they were heading to sleeper cells in Central Africa. Of course, these are rumours and must be taken with a pinch of salt, but given the mysterious circimstances of the 2010 crash it is interesting for sure.
I would certainly not hesitate flying ET, but would have a queasy feeling if I'd fly the MAX on any airline (recently had one on COPA). My thoughts are with the victims and their relatives.
