Mar 13, 2019, 10:20 am
Last edit by: JDiver
Boeing 737 MAX 8 ET 302 registration ET-AVJ from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, was lost 10 March 2019 shortly after takeoff at 08:44L (05:44Z). There were no survivors.
The incident appeared similar to the 29 October 2018 crash of Lion Air 610, operated by a B38M.
7 Nov 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US carriers 30 days to comply with the AD note.
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Boeing 737 MAX 8 registration ET-AVJ performing flight ET-302 from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, departed Addis Ababa's runway 07R and was climbing out of Addis Ababa when the aircraft levelled off at about 9000 feet MSL, radar contact was lost shortly after at 08:44L (05:44Z). The aircraft wreckage was found near Ejere at approximate position N8.8772 E39.2512. No survivors were found.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
Boeing 737 MAX and MCAS: See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (B38M) and at the time of the crash of ET 302 on 10 March 2019. ET also operates 10 Boeing 737-700 and 16 Boeing 737-800 aircraft as part of its fleet.
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]
Mar 10, 2019, 8:14 am
#46
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Posts: 14,352
I've neither the time nor the inclination to do an in-depth study, but one statistic a quick search came up with is the following:
In 1970 the number of airline fatalities per trillion revenue passenger kilometers was 54 times higher than it was last year.
That did not stop people in general from flying back in those days, and it certainly didn't stop me, despite doing quite a bit of that flying on inherently unsafer communist airlines and pretty dodgy Sovjet airliners such as the Antonov 24 and Ilyushin 18.
I also fly as a passenger in single-engined (turbo)prop aircraft and helicopters, which have safety records far worse than large commercial airliners.
If I took a 54 times higher risk back then without giving it a second thought, I'm not going to spend too much time worrying about the risk of flying today.
Others may of course beg to differ, but I submit that worrying too much is not the best path to a happy and enjoyable life.
Johan
Mar 10, 2019, 8:18 am
#47
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 262
Yep they tried to fit a new engine on an old airframe. It would not fit under the wing so Boeing thrust is forward making the plane unbalanced. They tried to make it fly by creating software to manage the instability like they do with stealth fighters. If it is the same issue as Lion Air short Boeing stock as it will get very ugly when they ground these Max variations. It would be a complete redesign to make the planes inherently stable.
Anyway, not knowing what caused both crashes I can only say the this: statistically it is very worrisome that 2 brand new airplanes from a brand new model with its entry into service less than 2 years ago crashed with 2 hull losses and no survivors. Not only that but: reported similar symptoms in a similar flight stage (after takeoff); happened to different airlines; happened in different areas of the world (and thus different weather and terrain). Something like this hasn't happened in the airline commercial world in the last 40 years.
Mar 10, 2019, 8:24 am
#48
Moderator: British Airways Executive Club
Join Date: Jan 2009
Programs: Battleaxe Alliance
Posts: 22,127
TK apparently has 11 of 737M8 according to Wikipedia. That makes it approx. 10% of their 737 fleet.
I have changed my TK flight to an A321-operated one as a precaution. My logic for changing it to an A321-operated flight is with the capacity difference, it's not very likely to be substituted with a 737M8 (less so than other 737s). Thank goodness for the fully flex ticket!
My logic is as follows:
If it turns out to be a recurring problem, the aircraft may be grounded, in which case there may be cancellations, so I thought I'd jump in early and change it.
If they don't ground the aircraft and if there is no suggestion of a non-aircraft cause, I would feel uneasy flying on the 737M8 as well.
I have changed my TK flight to an A321-operated one as a precaution. My logic for changing it to an A321-operated flight is with the capacity difference, it's not very likely to be substituted with a 737M8 (less so than other 737s). Thank goodness for the fully flex ticket!
My logic is as follows:
If it turns out to be a recurring problem, the aircraft may be grounded, in which case there may be cancellations, so I thought I'd jump in early and change it.
If they don't ground the aircraft and if there is no suggestion of a non-aircraft cause, I would feel uneasy flying on the 737M8 as well.
Mar 10, 2019, 8:31 am
#49
Suspended
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 103
It's very bad news for Families this onboard,
Airlies should ground now B737MAX 6 moths and second new plane crashed, so this construction isn't so safe, I prefer flying on old 737 then new MAX, let look at Dreamliners they had also beggining problems ... plane should be safer but mayby Boeing taking some shortcuts??
they even didn't make proper manual for 737MAX on begining with information about MCAS
I have in September flight ADD->MCT hope it will be old B737
Airlies should ground now B737MAX 6 moths and second new plane crashed, so this construction isn't so safe, I prefer flying on old 737 then new MAX, let look at Dreamliners they had also beggining problems ... plane should be safer but mayby Boeing taking some shortcuts??
they even didn't make proper manual for 737MAX on begining with information about MCAS
I have in September flight ADD->MCT hope it will be old B737
Mar 10, 2019, 8:35 am
#50
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 75
Drawing conclusions based on data from amateur websites in the immediate aftermath of an incident is not a good idea, neither is speculation about airspeed (which such sites do not show anyway, btw)
Speculating on anything right now is utterly pointless - especially "slammed into a mountain". Geez.
Speculating on anything right now is utterly pointless - especially "slammed into a mountain". Geez.
TK apparently has 11 of 737M8 according to Wikipedia. That makes it approx. 10% of their 737 fleet.
I have changed my TK flight to an A321-operated one as a precaution. My logic for changing it to an A321-operated flight is with the capacity difference, it's not very likely to be substituted with a 737M8 (less so than other 737s). Thank goodness for the fully flex ticket!
My logic is as follows:
If it turns out to be a recurring problem, the aircraft may be grounded, in which case there may be cancellations, so I thought I'd jump in early and change it.
If they don't ground the aircraft and if there is no suggestion of a non-aircraft cause, I would feel uneasy flying on the 737M8 as well.
I have changed my TK flight to an A321-operated one as a precaution. My logic for changing it to an A321-operated flight is with the capacity difference, it's not very likely to be substituted with a 737M8 (less so than other 737s). Thank goodness for the fully flex ticket!
My logic is as follows:
If it turns out to be a recurring problem, the aircraft may be grounded, in which case there may be cancellations, so I thought I'd jump in early and change it.
If they don't ground the aircraft and if there is no suggestion of a non-aircraft cause, I would feel uneasy flying on the 737M8 as well.
What company are you working for, if you don't mind me asking? And what is your expert opinion on 737M8's relative safety?
Mar 10, 2019, 8:36 am
#51
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: California
Posts: 463
My logic is as follows:
If it turns out to be a recurring problem, the aircraft may be grounded, in which case there may be cancellations, so I thought I'd jump in early and change it.
If they don't ground the aircraft and if there is no suggestion of a non-aircraft cause, I would feel uneasy flying on the 737M8 as well.
If it turns out to be a recurring problem, the aircraft may be grounded, in which case there may be cancellations, so I thought I'd jump in early and change it.
If they don't ground the aircraft and if there is no suggestion of a non-aircraft cause, I would feel uneasy flying on the 737M8 as well.
Mar 10, 2019, 8:40 am
#52
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Seat 1A, Juice pretty much everywhere, Mucci des Coins Exotiques
Posts: 34,339
See on cnn.com
Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde GebreMariam told reporters at a press conference that the pilot of flight ET 302 that crashed Sunday morning had reported technical difficulties and asked for clearance to return to Addis Ababa.
He was given clearance to turn back, according to Mr. GebreMariam, citing the Air Traffic Controllers record.
The senior Ethiopian Airlines pilot had flown more than 8,000 hours. He had an “excellent flying record,” according to the CEO.
A routine maintenance check didn't reveal any problems, he said. GebreMariam said they have not yet determined the cause of the crash.
So if he asked to turn around, that makes it appear to be even closer to the Lion Air incident.
Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde GebreMariam told reporters at a press conference that the pilot of flight ET 302 that crashed Sunday morning had reported technical difficulties and asked for clearance to return to Addis Ababa.
He was given clearance to turn back, according to Mr. GebreMariam, citing the Air Traffic Controllers record.
The senior Ethiopian Airlines pilot had flown more than 8,000 hours. He had an “excellent flying record,” according to the CEO.
A routine maintenance check didn't reveal any problems, he said. GebreMariam said they have not yet determined the cause of the crash.
So if he asked to turn around, that makes it appear to be even closer to the Lion Air incident.
Mar 10, 2019, 8:43 am
#54
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 75
Most people (please note that I'm not pointing the finger specifically at you here) have a very poor understanding of risk and risk assessment, which can admittedly be mathematically challenging. Their approach therefore tends to be emotive, speculative, based on perceptions and gut feeling, and thus irrational to a greater or lesser degree.
I've neither the time nor the inclination to do an in-depth study, but one statistic a quick search came up with is the following:
In 1970 the number of airline fatalities per trillion revenue passenger kilometers was 54 times higher than it was last year.
That did not stop people in general from flying back in those days, and it certainly didn't stop me, despite doing quite a bit of that flying on inherently unsafer communist airlines and pretty dodgy Sovjet airliners such as the Antonov 24 and Ilyushin 18.
I also fly as a passenger in single-engined (turbo)prop aircraft and helicopters, which have safety records far worse than large commercial airliners.
If I took a 54 times higher risk back then without giving it a second thought, I'm not going to spend too much time worrying about the risk of flying today.
Others may of course beg to differ, but I submit that worrying too much is not the best path to a happy and enjoyable life.
Johan
I've neither the time nor the inclination to do an in-depth study, but one statistic a quick search came up with is the following:
In 1970 the number of airline fatalities per trillion revenue passenger kilometers was 54 times higher than it was last year.
That did not stop people in general from flying back in those days, and it certainly didn't stop me, despite doing quite a bit of that flying on inherently unsafer communist airlines and pretty dodgy Sovjet airliners such as the Antonov 24 and Ilyushin 18.
I also fly as a passenger in single-engined (turbo)prop aircraft and helicopters, which have safety records far worse than large commercial airliners.
If I took a 54 times higher risk back then without giving it a second thought, I'm not going to spend too much time worrying about the risk of flying today.
Others may of course beg to differ, but I submit that worrying too much is not the best path to a happy and enjoyable life.
Johan
The statistics is also misleading. Supposed there are 54 aircraft flying per year in 1970, every one crashes. It comes out to 1 per week. in 2019, lets say there are 54x more flights per day, and 1 crashed per week, the crash risk is 54x smaller, but still same number of aircraft crashed.
Point is that number you cited can't be the whole picture.
Mar 10, 2019, 9:02 am
#55
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: San Francisco
Programs: United, BA, FlyingBLue, AA
Posts: 99
Drawing conclusions based on data from amateur websites in the immediate aftermath of an incident is not a good idea, neither is speculation about airspeed (which such sites do not show anyway, btw)
Speculating on anything right now is utterly pointless - especially "slammed into a mountain". Geez.
Speculating on anything right now is utterly pointless - especially "slammed into a mountain". Geez.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cp...i052853294.jpg
Mar 10, 2019, 9:15 am
#56
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Schwetzingen (Heidelberg), Germany
Programs: BA, SK, Accor, Carlson Rezidor
Posts: 394
If - and only if it might eventually be determined that this crash is in any way related to the same problem the Lion Air flight had then Ethiopian might be in deep trouble too because there have been notices issued by Boeing/FAA to all operators of this type to brief their crews on how to act in case of such a problem happening again. ET´s safety reputation is very good - to this date.
Let´s wait what will be officially revealedn in due time
Let´s wait what will be officially revealedn in due time
Mar 10, 2019, 9:26 am
#57
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Rhineland-Palatinate
Programs: *A Gold (A3), HHonor Gold
Posts: 5,693
TK apparently has 11 of 737M8 according to Wikipedia. That makes it approx. 10% of their 737 fleet.
I have changed my TK flight to an A321-operated one as a precaution. My logic for changing it to an A321-operated flight is with the capacity difference, it's not very likely to be substituted with a 737M8 (less so than other 737s). Thank goodness for the fully flex ticket!
My logic is as follows:
If it turns out to be a recurring problem, the aircraft may be grounded, in which case there may be cancellations, so I thought I'd jump in early and change it.
If they don't ground the aircraft and if there is no suggestion of a non-aircraft cause, I would feel uneasy flying on the 737M8 as well.
I have changed my TK flight to an A321-operated one as a precaution. My logic for changing it to an A321-operated flight is with the capacity difference, it's not very likely to be substituted with a 737M8 (less so than other 737s). Thank goodness for the fully flex ticket!
My logic is as follows:
If it turns out to be a recurring problem, the aircraft may be grounded, in which case there may be cancellations, so I thought I'd jump in early and change it.
If they don't ground the aircraft and if there is no suggestion of a non-aircraft cause, I would feel uneasy flying on the 737M8 as well.
A grounding of the 737M8 will affect Norwegian too.
Mar 10, 2019, 9:30 am
#58
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: YYZ
Programs: AC*SE 2MM
Posts: 16,649
How on earth do you know?
Right now nobody has the faintest idea why the ET aircraft crashed, and preliminary investigation results for the JT crash indicate that the airline may possibly have allowed an aircraft to depart that was known to have technical problems which should have kept it grounded.
Right now nobody has the faintest idea why the ET aircraft crashed, and preliminary investigation results for the JT crash indicate that the airline may possibly have allowed an aircraft to depart that was known to have technical problems which should have kept it grounded.
Most people (please note that I'm not pointing the finger specifically at you here) have a very poor understanding of risk and risk assessment, which can admittedly be mathematically challenging. Their approach therefore tends to be emotive, speculative, based on perceptions and gut feeling, and thus irrational to a greater or lesser degree.
I've neither the time nor the inclination to do an in-depth study, but one statistic a quick search came up with is the following:
In 1970 the number of airline fatalities per trillion revenue passenger kilometers was 54 times higher than it was last year.
That did not stop people in general from flying back in those days, and it certainly didn't stop me, despite doing quite a bit of that flying on inherently unsafer communist airlines and pretty dodgy Sovjet airliners such as the Antonov 24 and Ilyushin 18.
I've neither the time nor the inclination to do an in-depth study, but one statistic a quick search came up with is the following:
In 1970 the number of airline fatalities per trillion revenue passenger kilometers was 54 times higher than it was last year.
That did not stop people in general from flying back in those days, and it certainly didn't stop me, despite doing quite a bit of that flying on inherently unsafer communist airlines and pretty dodgy Sovjet airliners such as the Antonov 24 and Ilyushin 18.
Having said that, I'm still willing to fly the 7M8 (for now).
Mar 10, 2019, 9:33 am
#60
Moderator: British Airways Executive Club
Join Date: Jan 2009
Programs: Battleaxe Alliance
Posts: 22,127
I see that quite a few 737M8s are around with various airlines.
I have potential issues coming up with Silkair also. They don't have many, but they do have 5.
I may need to fly on SQ metal on their A330 on a less convenient schedule.