stimpy

Following on the news from Tanzania and Uganda, now Rwandair announced a sizable expansion to its fleet and routes.

31 destinations in Africa, Asia, Europe and North America including Addis, Guangzhou and Conakry. They recently added Abuja, Cape Town and signed deals with Togo, Ghana and Angola. They are also looking to improve their Gatwick slot and soon the US from Accra. Further they plan to add two A330-900 NEO's to the fleet.

So I'm wondering what is the global cause and effect of all these changes? If these airlines are moderately successful, will it have an impact on other airlines? Even if 90% of the passengers are government employees?

Also, if Rwandair is successful in this expansion, could joining a global alliance be in their future?

dvs7310

Certainly agree, Rwandair should be looking for an alliance or at least some good FFP partners with reciprocal benefits. They are becoming a real force in East Africa, but until I get reciprocal benefits from my status, I won't be flying them anytime soon. ET serves me very well for the time being, though they gutted partner earnings on lower tier tickets last year.

B747-437B

That is a big "IF". Rwandair is a financial basket case that exists solely because of huge government subsidies.

stimpy

Wasn't that how most all of the worlds top airlines began? Entirely financed by government?

B747-437B

Yes, but its a different environment today. A startup in 1920 had a very different set of barriers to entry in the aviation industry than a startup in 2000 did.

I guess it depends on what your definition of "moderately successful" is.

stimpy

I know what you are saying, but I'm sure that Rwandair and the Rwandan government would say that starting an airline in Rwanda has a very different set of barriers to entry than airline startups in other regions of the world. Especially nowadays with alliances and corporate booking web portals, etc. They are not an LCC after all.

As time goes by we'll see how successful they are.

Goaguy

I am most certainly looking forward to more competition and cheaper airfares within the continent. Also, the opening of new airports/airport terminals. I wonder if more people will be inclined to choose ET when they open their new terminal in ADD later this year. Transfer experience in ADD is currently.. yeah.. There is room for improvement.

Do any of you have any thoughts of airline safety for these 'new' carriers? I personally would be a bit cautious about e.g. Air Tanzania - their historical safety records aren't very good, severely damaging almost every single aircraft they had in the past, I am not mistaken? ET and KQ aren't perfect either, but percentage-wise much safer than other airliners in this part of the world? I believe an ET aircraft skidded off the runway in EBB just last week.

stimpy

Regarding safety, the newer airplanes practically fly themselves. And significantly reduce the possibility of pilot error. Especially the B787 and A350. So I am much less worried about those aircraft even when flying an African carrier. The last time I flew Rwandair it was on an old Dornier turboprop, landing at EBB during a storm. That was somewhat less than safe! The pilots aborted once, circled around and landed safely. Just as they were taught.

B747-437B

Pilot error in terms of poor flying skills leading to an accident is less of an issue than pilot error in terms of poor judgement leading to an accident. A pilot without proper training/experience who operates in a poor safety culture can very easily screw up even the most advanced machine! It will take most African carriers (even the most "advanced" ones like ET and KQ) at least a generation to develop the proper safety culture to truly reduce the possibility of pilot error.

flying_blue_white_red

WB wants to purchase two 738 max8 also. One could/should be flown to Europe during the low season ( northern hemisphere winter) and one probably to TLV or CAN via DXB/BOM. 10-15 days ago I flew them on BRU-KGL-EBB-KGL-LGW. Surprisingly, long haul sectors LF were:
1) BRU-KGL: J=85%, W=71%, Y=30%
2) LGW-KGL: J=95%, W=66%, Y=45% ( Though most pax got off in BRU)

I thought that airline alliances were a thing from the past. Now many of them rely on cost effective joint ventures. For instance, KQ is considering whether to stay or leave the SkyTeam alliance which could be the first step to a continental project which would include Air Mauritius, South African Airways, RwandAir and Kenya Airways. This would help to achieve the much needed economies of scale which would accord them improved efficiency and collaborations. Let's wait and see but I wish them good luck

Goaguy

You think KQ would leave SkyTeam as long as KLM is one of their (minority) shareholders? Or would they want to/need to buy them out? Having an alliance partner on the continent must have been one of KLM's goals by purchasing a stake in KQ?
And if KQ leaves skyteam, surely Skyteam must then look for another partner in the region?

stimpy

Yes it is not at all realistic that KQ could leave ST anytime soon as AF/KL still have a significant minority ownership, as well as the fact that they both benefit from the relationship. However it is very realistic that KQ could enter into a JV with other African airlines.

flying_blue_white_red

AF & KL cover very well most of the region. Apart from ADD/LUN/HRE, which routes, do you think, can not be served through codeshares?
Juba? Khartoum? Bujumbura or Lilongwe?
The project of a continental African alliance is not new and dates back from when T. Naikuni was still CEO of KQ, suggesting that SAA, ET and KQ should merge.
Even recently, ET has called upon Kenyan Airline (KQ) to partner in joint procurement of aircraft equipment and lower the cost of operation.
Is KQ now stuck between a rock and a hard place?
Now with the new players like Air Tanzania, Uganda Airlines and RwandAir, market will be more dynamic but atomized. My only fear with ATCL is their reliability - not their safety.

NickB

Indeed. Quite apart from the ownership issue, ST membership must drive a significant amount of traffic KQ's way from the rest of the world to Africa but there certainly is room for greater cooperation on a number of issues with other African airlines, Whether a JV or other forms of partnership are the best way forward remains to be seen..

NickB

How viable are these long term, though? Are we not going to go through another cycle of unsustainable airlines surviving for a while until they accumulate so much debt that the nation no longer wants to underwrite them and they are left to rot and ultimately fail?