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Thomas Cook Enters Compulsory Liquidation

Thomas Cook Enters Compulsory Liquidation

Old Sep 23, 19, 3:05 am
  #31  
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Originally Posted by Concerto View Post
Some interesting comments above. I did not know that Ryanair was not in good shape.
The only mention of Ryanair in this thread is in one of your earlier messages.

Therefore, I am not sure what, specifically, you are referring to by saying "Ryanair was not in good shape". They almost collapsed in the late 1980s but it has been onwards and upwards ever since, though with the odd glitch (crewing problems and flight cancellations; staff union problems; closure of bases and elimination of staff due to the non-availability of the 737 Maxes that had been factored into 2019 and 2020 schedules).
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Old Sep 23, 19, 3:21 am
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Originally Posted by irishguy28 View Post
Therefore, I am not sure what, specifically, you are referring to by saying "Ryanair was not in good shape".
I wrote they aren't in good shape.

Obv, I don't see them anywhere near bankruptcy. But they have a lot on their plate right now. Pilots and crews which are unhappy with working conditions and salaries; FR is strongly affected by the uncertainties (and possibly massive changes) required due to Brexit; they have an all 737 fleet with lots of MAX aircraft on order, thus they suffer considerably under the grounding.

They're also in bad shape in the sense that their profits are shrinking.

So I think they will not purchase an airline as big as DE which represents like 50% of Thomas Cook's aviation branch outright. I find it more likely DE's competitors let DE go into liquidation. Then, some of these competitors could selectively purchase/lease planes and take on some crews.

-----

EDIT: I guess I forgot about TUI. I could imagine TUI buying some of Thomas Cook's airlines outright.

Last edited by speed.skater; Sep 23, 19 at 3:29 am
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Old Sep 23, 19, 4:12 am
  #33  
 
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Sorry irishguy28, I wasn't very clear again. It was indeed in reference to a comment from speed.skater but it doesn't matter so much now, I suppose. My recent experiences with Ryanair have been pretty good, actually, friendly crews and decent flights. But last week my SXF-CGN flight picked up a 65 minute delay, which I thought was unusual for Ryanair (operated by MALTA AIR in this case).

Have you seen and heard on the Beeb the statement given by Thomas Cook chief Peter Fankhauser?? What planet does he come from? I have to say, just the look of him and the demeanour does not inspire confidence. Nothing to do with actual facts, I know, just a feeling.

And what about the story of holiday makers almost being held hostage in some Tunisian hotel in lieu of payment, probably an exaggeration, but just one of a number of stories reported by the BBC? A repatriation of this size won't go through without some issues along the way, that's for sure. And I'm not sure the public, despite their purported love of the Thomas Cook brand, will be so understanding about all the chaos.
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Old Sep 23, 19, 5:40 am
  #34  
 
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If the German government committed taxpayer's money to DE, I'd become very angry.
It is not the job of the government to bail out failing businesses.
There is too much capacity in Europe at the moment. The weakest ones will fail.

It's quite unfair towards travel agencies/tour operators/airlines, who have run a better business.

I assume that DE won't operate for much longer, since they are not allowed to carry any Thomas Cook/Bucher Reisen/Neckermann/Öger Tours packaged tour passengers to their holiday destination. Moreover, DE won't receive any money from its parent company and tour operators (Thomas Cook/Bucher Reisen/Neckermann/Öger Tours), in case these tour operators declare bankcruptcy.

DE just living off direct booking passengers during the low season that is coming up -> I don't believe that.
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Old Sep 23, 19, 5:44 am
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Concerto View Post
Sorry irishguy28, I wasn't very clear again. It was indeed in reference to a comment from speed.skater but it doesn't matter so much now, I suppose. My recent experiences with Ryanair have been pretty good, actually, friendly crews and decent flights. But last week my SXF-CGN flight picked up a 65 minute delay, which I thought was unusual for Ryanair (operated by MALTA AIR in this case).

Have you seen and heard on the Beeb the statement given by Thomas Cook chief Peter Fankhauser?? What planet does he come from? I have to say, just the look of him and the demeanour does not inspire confidence. Nothing to do with actual facts, I know, just a feeling.

And what about the story of holiday makers almost being held hostage in some Tunisian hotel in lieu of payment, probably an exaggeration, but just one of a number of stories reported by the BBC? A repatriation of this size won't go through without some issues along the way, that's for sure. And I'm not sure the public, despite their purported love of the Thomas Cook brand, will be so understanding about all the chaos.
Not only a different planet, but a different lifetime. Still, he had in his hand a piece of paper....I am sure he will come out of this just peachy....
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Old Sep 23, 19, 6:05 am
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Firstly - to the many thousands who are now without work - hope you can revive your career and prospects quickly.
Secondly - to all the suppliers - globally - who will now have to fight for their monies - ATOL etc does not cover as much as you are led to believe.

What I find extremely ironic - and I am not involved with finance / banks - so my comments are very 'top-line'- is that after securing c900m from a Chinese partner, it was then RBS and Lloyds who apparently then demanded an additional c200m cash for daily operations - so I read it as those two banks demand as being the final straw / nail. The government will not advance a loan of c200 which is one third the cost which may now be paid by the HM Treasury - one so as not to set precedence - secondly it contravenes some EU laws.

Ironic that RBS and Lloyds majority shareholder is..............................the UK Government????? And Condor may still continue to fly as it is applying to the German Government for emergency funding - maybe I missed the news of Germany leaving the EU?
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Old Sep 23, 19, 6:40 am
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Originally Posted by largeeyes View Post
It's been in the news for the last year or so. This isn't a surprise to pretty much anyone and had been expected.
Not a surprise to anyone except quite a few of the 150K stranded and those that had vacations booked.

I've read a lot of articles on different European airlines that have been close to insolvency, and Thomas Cook was never mentioned as an airline on the brink of failure. I wasn't surprised by any of the other European failures over the last couple of years, including XL Airways shutting down. But Thomas Cook was never listed in the aviation news I track.

This leads to the next question: which other European airlines are on thin ice?
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Old Sep 23, 19, 6:53 am
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You can be sure that Lufty, Easyjet and some other tour operators in Germany will most likely sue the German Government if the taxpayer loans/guarantess multiple hundred of million of Euros to Condor to keep it afloat.
With Air Berlin -> most stakeholder knew that the money was made available to properly wind down the operations of Air Berlin.
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Old Sep 23, 19, 7:15 am
  #39  
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Originally Posted by iflyjetz View Post
I've read a lot of articles on different European airlines that have been close to insolvency, and Thomas Cook was never mentioned as an airline on the brink of failure. I wasn't surprised by any of the other European failures over the last couple of years, including XL Airways shutting down. But Thomas Cook was never listed in the aviation news I track.
This leads to the next question: which other European airlines are on thin ice?
TC was already looking to offload the airline operations earlier this year citing falling revenues that couldn't support the urgently required fleet renewal (DE's fleet alone is rather old: 21/20/24 yr old A320/B753/B763).

Lets see... tuifly is limping along, norwegian is living hand to mouth, the smaller ones like EE, Adria and Croatians are technically dead. Charter operators like Lynx, Jetsmart, the Portugese ad-hoc operators like Euro Atlantic and HiFly and some smaller leaner outfits should benefit from the TC loss and the max grounding to help them survive another season.
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Old Sep 23, 19, 7:24 am
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Originally Posted by oliver2002 View Post
TC was already looking to offload the airline operations earlier this year citing falling revenues that couldn't support the urgently required fleet renewal (DE's fleet alone is rather old: 21/20/24 yr old A320/B753/B763).
Two points:

One, the planes DE is flying don't belong to them. See the post from irishguy28 above.

Two, Thomas Cook Group Airlines was supposedly in ok-ish shape right until the collapse of the parent. Many people have stopped booking package tours, which is leading to a tough environment and consolidation among package tour operators.

But people still want to travel to PMI, FUE, LAS, PHX, HRG, PUJ, and so on. It's just that fewer tourists are gonna book a package tour. But they don't avoid DE and the other TC group airlines as such.

I'm not saying the market enviroment for Thomas Cook Group Airlines was easy as pie. But they were in better shape than some of the other airlines you mentioned. It's the parent dragging down the affiliates.
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Old Sep 23, 19, 7:38 am
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Originally Posted by iflyjetz View Post
Not a surprise to anyone except quite a few of the 150K stranded and those that had vacations booked.

I've read a lot of articles on different European airlines that have been close to insolvency, and Thomas Cook was never mentioned as an airline on the brink of failure. I wasn't surprised by any of the other European failures over the last couple of years, including XL Airways shutting down. But Thomas Cook was never listed in the aviation news I track.
I guess one reason why Thomas Cook was not really on aviation news is that it was more than just an airline (or group of airlines) since it was largely travel agent/package tours business and most of their airline functions involved just flying their package tour customers from Northern Europe to destinations in warmer climates (+ seasonal winter holidays in Lapland around the Christmas and New Year). I think Condor was the only airline in Thomas Cook Group that operated in "normal" fashion that it sold its flights directly to the customers, the rest provided primarily the flights in the package tours.
Originally Posted by iflyjetz View Post
This leads to the next question: which other European airlines are on thin ice?
Another package tour operator with its own airline(s) TUI has already issued profit warnings this year due to risks in Brexit and 737 MAX groundings (they have 15 of those planes), although I guess the bankruptcy of one of the fiercest competitors might offer little help to the situation.
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Old Sep 23, 19, 8:01 am
  #42  
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Originally Posted by iflyjetz View Post
Not a surprise to anyone except quite a few of the 150K stranded and those that had vacations booked.

I've read a lot of articles on different European airlines that have been close to insolvency, and Thomas Cook was never mentioned as an airline on the brink of failure. I wasn't surprised by any of the other European failures over the last couple of years, including XL Airways shutting down. But Thomas Cook was never listed in the aviation news I track.

This leads to the next question: which other European airlines are on thin ice?
Here's just a sample of the numerous articles chronicling Thomas Cook's perilous position in the past few months

April 2019: The Economist Travel companies Thomas Cook and TUI are under serious stress
May 2019: Bloomberg Thomas Cook shares slump as losses mount
May 2019: The Guardian Brexit chaos hits Thomas Cook as losses mount to £1.5bn
May 2019: Deutsche Welle Lufthansa looks to snap up Thomas Cook's Condor airline
May 2019: The Sun FIGHT OR FLIGHT Can I still book a package holiday with Thomas Cook and can I get my money back if it goes bust?
May 2019: Financial Times Thomas Cook faces tough task to fly itself out of trouble
June 2019: The Express Thomas Cook: 21,000 jobs at risk in travel break-up
July 2019: The Guardian Can Thomas Cook find a path through its perfect storm of woes?
August 2019: Sky Thomas Cook in rescue talks to secure extra £150m
August 2019: BBC Thomas Cook to sell majority stake to China's Fosun
August 2019: The Mirror Thomas Cook saved after £450million deal with Wolverhampton Wanderers' owner
3 September 2019: Yahoo Could Thomas Cook go bust?
7 September 2019: The Telegraph Thomas Cook rescue deal under threat from pension trustees
13 September 2019: Herald Scotland Thomas Cook warns it could 'run out of money' and go bust
15 September 2019: BBC Thomas Cook 'racing to finalise rescue deal'
15 September 2019: Thisismoney.co.uk CAA braced to rescue Thomas Cook customers if £900m rescue deal collapses
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Old Sep 23, 19, 8:24 am
  #43  
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People take risks all the time. Norwegian teetered on the brink and worked out a very unfavorable deal (for it) with its bondholders. Had that not come through, its passengers would be in the same spot.

Yet, there are posts every day from people who know of the difficulties, still purchase and then write that they hope that things will be OK next March or thereabouts.
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Old Sep 23, 19, 8:34 am
  #44  
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Well, package tours are much more protected than standalone airlines tickets, since a substantial part of the population (used to) book packages. In the UK, the government jumps in, in Germany the tour operators have to offer compulsory insurance. So if the operator goes bust, you will be brought home.
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Old Sep 23, 19, 8:36 am
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The, cough "government", has said that it will also bring home people that are not ATOL protected.
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