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-   -   Thomas Cook Enters Compulsory Liquidation (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/other-european-airlines/1988392-thomas-cook-enters-compulsory-liquidation.html)

DYKWIA Sep 27, 19 7:11 am


Originally Posted by Fawltyaces (Post 31566590)
BA also used to fly MAN - JFK but they pulled the route years ago. I thought Boston was a Virgin flight (Delta codeshare) but could be wrong.

Point is that Manchester's offering to the States has been decimated - for example TC flew twice per day to Orlando peak season - TUI fly twice a week, Virgin seem to be daily so that is 23 direct flights a week down to 9.

For a regional airport to lose 20-30 transatlantic flights per week plus the likes of Cuba and other Caribbean destinations isn't great. Can't see who else will dive in other than Virgin.

Delta are taking over the BOS flight, and it's going daily from 5 weekly.

Orlando on VS is 2 daily.

I'd expect VS to keep expanding as they have done slowly over the last few years. Maybe even get a Clubhouse in the new T2 :)

MSPeconomist Sep 27, 19 11:34 am


Originally Posted by Fawltyaces (Post 31566590)
BA also used to fly MAN - JFK but they pulled the route years ago. I thought Boston was a Virgin flight (Delta codeshare) but could be wrong.

Point is that Manchester's offering to the States has been decimated - for example TC flew twice per day to Orlando peak season - TUI fly twice a week, Virgin seem to be daily so that is 23 direct flights a week down to 9.

For a regional airport to lose 20-30 transatlantic flights per week plus the likes of Cuba and other Caribbean destinations isn't great. Can't see who else will dive in other than Virgin.

VS has been flying the MAN-BOS and vv route, probably with a DL codeshare under the JV, but it's been VS metal.

Earlier this week DL announced expanded (international) service at BOS, and MAN is one of the future routes on the list. Presumably the DL flight will be part of the JV and will also be sold as a VS codeshare.

Oaxaca Sep 27, 19 1:30 pm


Originally Posted by irishguy28 (Post 31566430)
Condor made a €43 million profit for 2018, with expectations for 2019 to beat that.
TC announced a 1.5 billion half-year loss last May. That's why they looked again at selling various assets - but it became clear that offloading the divisions that actually made money was unsustainable and would have hastened the end of the parent.

Cutting them free from the sinking TC corpse would have been the right thing to do; TCUK would have gone under before the summer, so at least hundreds of thousands of Brits managed to get their last TC summer holiday.

You are not exactly making a like-for-like comparison. The TC Group 1.4bn half year loss was mostly not an underlying trading loss, it was primarily down to a goodwill impairment of 1.1bn dating back to the 2007 merger with MyTravel, and tour operators (like many airlines) usually have better results over a full year than a half year which largely covers winter (assuming your 2018 figure for Condor is a full year number). Still a big problem, but stemming from a different origin (many of TC’s problems went back a decade or more). I wouldn’t be surprised if Condor also made a half year loss as part of the 1.4bn, though haven’t studied the numbers in details.

Selling the airline earlier in the year wouldn’t necessarily have hastened the death of the parent, it was actually a desirable and necessary step to allow Fosun to come and take over TC, which could happen without the airlines in the portfolio. Problem was it couldn’t be sold, or at least not for the money they wanted, either because the potential buyers didn’t think it was worth so much, or because they knew TC was increasingly desperate and offered low. That led to the ultimately doomed recapitalisation plan.

Nevertheless, Condor is a slightly different animal to the other TC airlines, in that it has always operated more at arms length to the tour operator, and only about 25% of its seats were sold to the TC tour operator brands. Whether it is really valuable and sustainable is another matter. I’m not so sure it is, at least in current form, but that’s just speculation.

Oaxaca Sep 27, 19 1:35 pm


Originally Posted by DYKWIA (Post 31569507)

I'd expect VS to keep expanding as they have done slowly over the last few years. Maybe even get a Clubhouse in the new T2 :)

Talk of a Clubhouse in T2 has been around a while, and in the news today...

https://www.businesstraveller.com/bu...ester-airport/

DYKWIA Sep 28, 19 3:20 am


Originally Posted by Oaxaca (Post 31570895)
Talk of a Clubhouse in T2 has been around a while, and in the news today...

https://www.businesstraveller.com/bu...ester-airport/

Ha! What a coincidence... My post was in little more than hope :)

Sharice SB Sep 28, 19 3:19 pm


Originally Posted by Often1 (Post 31555710)
This is 100% incorrect.

You are looking at insurance, not chargeback provisions.

How am 100% incorrect? Did read my entire answer? Part 1, I stated that the insurance part of AmEx and CSR don't not cover financially insolvencey. AmEx doesn't even offer trip insurance.

In my last paragraph I stated the only method to get your money back is via chargebacks. Further more you don't need a premium credit like CSR or an AmEx Platinum to get this service as the original poster was implying - any credit card can have it done. This is a straightforward process if the chargeback is within 60 days of the tranaction. Some people book trip months out in advanced so if you look at the links I added, some people have had to fight their credit cards or call consumer hotlines for their credit card company to do a charge back if the transaction is over 60 days. So I'm not understanding what you think is wrong about what was stated.

Fabo.sk Sep 30, 19 12:20 pm


Originally Posted by MSPeconomist (Post 31559689)
This happened on Saturday; it wasn't a repatriation flight. I wonder whether the real problem was that Thomas Cook couldn't afford to fill the fuel tanks enough to carry the luggage too.


Originally Posted by iflyjetz (Post 31560129)
I'd tend to believe that the plane was at maximum weight and wasn't able to take additional luggage.

The Greek island airports are notorious for being at the limit for modern large narrowbodies. Unlike the 757, those weren't designed to rocket off from a marginal runway, rather to take off lazily from a large airport runway, and fly far.

Still, they make good enough sense into the smaller islands (a good bit from their maximum ranges) so that they are used there. However, it's quite common that a single hiccup in weather (wind in a wrong direction, too hot...) sends them on limits, and then the choice is, do you take the luggage, and stop for fuel on the way, or do you take the fuel to get home and let the luggage arrive later.

If you are an airline running enough flights in the airport, it usually makes sense to leave the bags, and load them on another flight leaving later - that would likely have better weather, i.e. flying at a colder night rather than hot day.
Also a risk, if you have already fueled up, you can't just give the fuel back, so if the weather turns worse between fuel order and departure, bags off is the only way.


Originally Posted by irishguy28 (Post 31561817)
Then I would advise you, as a reasonable person, to go and look.

You will find that, unlike its parent and former owner, it is a profitable business. With Thomas Cook's collapse - taking Condor's profit with it - Condor finds itself with the rug pulled from under its feet, and would struggle to survive the lean winter period. Many airlines - particularly those that are highly seasonal, such as holiday charters - make their profit in the high (summer) season.

To condemn Condor to face the winter alone, having had its circumstances so brutally altered just now, through no fault of its own, just as it faces into the tough part of the year, appears quite vindictive. That Condor, like many other airlines, has a seasonal business model is not one that means it is inherently unprofitable. That it should now, with its profit-making season just completed - and those profits ripped away - somehow be expected to survive the lean winter months, unaided, is not something that appears fair.

Should all businesses that seek credit be denied and then pushed to failure?

Note that Thomas Cook was in the same boat last week - but no-one was prepared to stump up the credit there, as it was clear that it would not be enough to get them through the winter.

No point in sending a good airline after a bad one!

What I would be worried here, is the loss of Neckermann business by Condor.


Originally Posted by notquiteaff (Post 31564790)
Based on my one post-TC-liquidation DE flight the other day (which was fairly full despite not carrying any TC customers), I am almost certain that Condor is viable on its own.

Also here I'm wondering - how much of this is Neckermann passengers just getting back from holidays they managed to fly out on before the crash?
Now ATOL is well publicised, but I don't know how German law does it - perhaps it has people fly back on the same flights they were supposed to, and the insurance pays for the costs of suppliers not yet paid?


Originally Posted by irishguy28 (Post 31566430)
Condor made a 43 million profit for 2018, with expectations for 2019 to beat that.
TC announced a 1.5 billion half-year loss last May. That's why they looked again at selling various assets - but it became clear that offloading the divisions that actually made money was unsustainable and would have hastened the end of the parent.

Cutting them free from the sinking TC corpse would have been the right thing to do; TCUK would have gone under before the summer, so at least hundreds of thousands of Brits managed to get their last TC summer holiday.

One thing I have not seen really reported much on is how healthy was Thomas Cook Airlines? As opposed to the group as a whole. Although granted, with the loss of the majority customer, there would be little point in keeping them alive, I am afraid.


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