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Norwegian to fly between UK, Ireland and U.S. NE Coast cities. from Summer 2017.

Norwegian to fly between UK, Ireland and U.S. NE Coast cities. from Summer 2017.

Old Jul 16, 2018, 6:44 am
  #406  
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Originally Posted by iahphx
But it seems to be all fake! I'm honestly amazed this accounting is legal (a matter that Norwegian has had trouble with in the past).

First, they do admit that their unit revenue was down another 11% year over year. Here's my Captain Obvious statement: if you're losing lots of money as an airline, and you rapidly expand but then suffer another double-digit unit revenue decline, you're not going to magically become profitable.

But wait, you say, their costs are down! That seems curious given that fuel prices have skyrocketed. But they claim their non-fuel costs have dramatically declined. But again, this seems like smoke and mirrors. For example, they grew capacity 48% (wow), but didn't incur any additional maintenance expense on their fleet. What?

And there are lots more gems. Air Transport World notes that "second-quarter profit was helped by a one-off gain amounting to NOK455 million, reversed from a NOK197 million loss, resulting partly from translation of working capital in foreign currency and a gain of NOK 254 million from forward contracts on currency and fuel. " Say what? Who came up with this? This obviously isn't "real" income.

Charitably, what seems to be going on here is the proverbial putting lipstick on a pig. I'm not surprised that Irish Guy fell for it, but Bloomberg? C'mon. How bad is our financial press these days? Regardless, I don't think Walsh will be impressed.
Income is real income, no matter what investors in, and other beneficiaries of, some Norwegian competitor(s) may claim in trying to attack competition in the marketplace -- be the competition the GCC3+TK, Norwegian or anyone else that makes the marketplace more competitive and better for consumers.

Income is real income and makes the income-makers a bit more sure-footed than they would otherwise have been. Attacking the media for not peddling inaccuracies or phobias doesn't really add to the credibility of those attacking the media.
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Old Jul 17, 2018, 12:01 pm
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Originally Posted by iahphx
But it seems to be all fake! I'm honestly amazed this accounting is legal (a matter that Norwegian has had trouble with in the past).

First, they do admit that their unit revenue was down another 11% year over year. Here's my Captain Obvious statement: if you're losing lots of money as an airline, and you rapidly expand but then suffer another double-digit unit revenue decline, you're not going to magically become profitable.

But wait, you say, their costs are down! That seems curious given that fuel prices have skyrocketed. But they claim their non-fuel costs have dramatically declined. But again, this seems like smoke and mirrors. For example, they grew capacity 48% (wow), but didn't incur any additional maintenance expense on their fleet. What?

And there are lots more gems. Air Transport World notes that "second-quarter profit was helped by a one-off gain amounting to NOK455 million, reversed from a NOK197 million loss, resulting partly from translation of working capital in foreign currency and a gain of NOK 254 million from forward contracts on currency and fuel. " Say what? Who came up with this? This obviously isn't "real" income.

Charitably, what seems to be going on here is the proverbial putting lipstick on a pig. I'm not surprised that Irish Guy fell for it, but Bloomberg? C'mon. How bad is our financial press these days? Regardless, I don't think Walsh will be impressed.
Norwegian had a one time gain of 454.8M NOK due to currency and fuel hedges. This allowed the company to report a paper profit. If not for those gains, they would have reported a 301.2M NOK loss before taxes.

Their hedging, plus the new stock issuance of 200M NOK will keep Norwegian alive through the third quarter, possibly Q4.
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Old Jul 17, 2018, 9:17 pm
  #408  
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Originally Posted by GUWonder

Income is real income and makes the income-makers a bit more sure-footed than they would otherwise have been. Attacking the media for not peddling inaccuracies or phobias doesn't really add to the credibility of those attacking the media.
Say what? I'm attacking the media because they exercised gross negligence in describing Norwegian's latest earnings report. Here's what the Cranky Flyer had to say about this:

https://crankyflier.com/2018/07/16/n...rofit-machine/
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Old Jul 17, 2018, 11:26 pm
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Originally Posted by iahphx
Say what? I'm attacking the media because they exercised gross negligence in describing Norwegian's latest earnings report. Here's what the Cranky Flyer had to say about this:

https://crankyflier.com/2018/07/16/n...rofit-machine/
“Gross negligence”?

The interest in acquiring Norwegian shares wasn’t only pursued by the so-called “dumb money” as of late, or was it?
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Old Jul 18, 2018, 5:51 am
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Originally Posted by GUWonder


Gross negligence?

The interest in acquiring Norwegian shares wasnt only pursued by the so-called dumb money as of late, or was it?
Whatever interest there is in acquiring Norwegian isn't due to that company's ability to operate a profitable airline. Indeed, if you exclude not-for-profit airlines (like the Middle East ones), Norwegian is probably the least successful airline in the world.
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Old Jul 18, 2018, 6:13 am
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He should know! He's apparently only invested in airlines that went bankrupt!
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Old Jul 18, 2018, 3:01 pm
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Originally Posted by iahphx
Say what? I'm attacking the media because they exercised gross negligence in describing Norwegian's latest earnings report.
My employer recently released the Q2 earnings report.
Let's just say that the company press release had a "slightly" different tone compared to the business journalists' reporting, and no business publication more or less copied the company talking points. Norwegian, on the other hand, managed to pull the wool over several publications' eyes.
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Old Sep 23, 2018, 4:45 am
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https://www.scotsman.com/news/transp...urgh-1-4803827

SWF to EDI flights cancelled after March.
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Old Sep 24, 2018, 5:59 am
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How many of the fantaboulous UK/Eire - NE routes remain?
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Old Sep 24, 2018, 9:56 pm
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Originally Posted by oliver2002
How many of the fantaboulous UK/Eire - NE routes remain?
More than will likely exist at this time next year!
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Old Sep 26, 2018, 8:45 pm
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Originally Posted by oliver2002
How many of the fantaboulous UK/Eire - NE routes remain?
None from the UK (their MAX routes from EDI/BFS). They have made DUB-SWF double daily and are promoting shopping day trips to a mall in Newburgh.

Dont forget LGW-SIN also gets the chop in January. And theyre trying to sell all (60) of their A320/neos that are due for delivery soon.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/co...t-commitments/
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Old Sep 27, 2018, 12:29 am
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I suppose the subsidies the airports can give to such new routes ran out?
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Old Oct 1, 2018, 2:46 pm
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There maybe more short term risk to Norwegian than I thought. Obviously, if oil prices continue to increase here (impossible to know, as such prices are largely speculative and not fundamental), there would be more risk of a Norwegian bankruptcy.

https://primeraair.com/about-us/corp...es-operations/
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Old Oct 4, 2018, 3:10 am
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Originally Posted by usbusinesstraveller


None from the UK (their MAX routes from EDI/BFS). They have made DUB-SWF double daily and are promoting shopping day trips to a mall in Newburgh.

Dont forget LGW-SIN also gets the chop in January. And theyre trying to sell all (60) of their A320/neos that are due for delivery soon.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/co...t-commitments/
I haven't looked at Norwegian in almost 3 months, but the first item I reviewed was their September 2018 Investor Presentation slide deck on their investor relations page. There was a note on page 14 stating that 'up to' 140 aircraft are up for sale. I realize that a part of those numbers are orders/options, but their year end 2018 fleet is only supposed to be 164 aircraft. A more likely number of aircraft sold by the end of 2018 is 'all of them'. The slide deck also discussed CASK reductions but failed to show any RASK numbers. Red flag!
I went through their monthly RASK numbers (from their monthly traffic figures) it was: .47 (Jul), .40 (Aug), .33 (Sep). I'll be generous and estimate a .41 RASK for the quarter (more flying in Jul than Sep). Their Q2 CASK was .41 so my guess is that they'll report a loss for Q3 due to rising fuel costs unless they magically come up with more one time profits from currency and fuel hedges.

From this point forward, anyone buying tickets on Norwegian is really rolling the bones and are taking a chance that they'll meet the same fate as Primera customers.
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Old Oct 4, 2018, 3:16 am
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As far as I understood it is all of the yet to be delivered Airbus 320NEO that they are trying to off load. As they will not need the capacity growth coming from this.

Norwegian very proudly made the biggest airliner orders in European history, ordering bunch of 737MAX and a bunch of A320NEO. Reason for splitting between two manufacturers was that they could get the planes quicker that way. Some people doubted what they would do with all those aircraft, well now we know.
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