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China Eastern MU5735 737-800 [not MAX] Crashed 21 March 2022, 132 onboard

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Old Mar 21, 2022, 4:38 am
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China Eastern MU5735 737-800 [not MAX] Crashed 21 March 2022, 132 onboard

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Old Mar 24, 2022, 9:15 am
  #121  
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Originally Posted by STS-134
But they apparently did recover from it, at least for a short time. At least that's what the ADS-B data show.
No, the data just shows the descent stopped for a moment. We don't know why yet.

Originally Posted by STS-134
t is plausible (although obviously not confirmed) that the plane could have stayed in the air if they had kept the speed up. Sometimes, pilots manage to "land" planes even if parts of the plane are damaged (i.e. UA232).

Just because something is possible or plausible, or because something actually happened (like UA232), doesn't make a similar future outcome "likely."

Last edited by NewbieRunner; Mar 25, 2022 at 10:32 am Reason: Merge consecutive posts by same member
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Old Mar 24, 2022, 8:31 pm
  #122  
 
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Just received a notification, they found the second black box which is the FDR, unknown condition, will be sent to the lab in Beijing
They also found large piece wreckage 10 kms/6 miles away from the main crash site yesterday

Update: 1 hr later the gov official media said they didn’t find the second black fox, fake news

Last edited by jizen; Mar 24, 2022 at 9:32 pm
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Old Mar 25, 2022, 2:35 am
  #123  
 
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Originally Posted by Bear96
Just because something is possible or plausible, or because something actually happened (like UA232), doesn't make a similar future outcome "likely."
Well said. A good example for a non-recoverable situation would be JL123 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_...nes_Flight_123).

Originally Posted by jizen
Just received a notification, they found the second black box which is the FDR, unknown condition, will be sent to the lab in Beijing
They also found large piece wreckage 10 kms/6 miles away from the main crash site yesterday
Do you have any reference?

If true, then this is very important. A broken off part can have two reasons:
  1. break up mid-air upon "falling" from the sky
  2. mechanical failure causing the crash
If the part would be broken from the plane while being in the deep dive, then I would assume that the part is closer to the crash site. Which - most likely - means that this broken off part of the plane is directly related to the reason for the crash, i.e. mechanical failure. Which leads now to the question, what broke of and why?

Last edited by NewbieRunner; Mar 25, 2022 at 10:33 am Reason: Merge consecutive posts by same member
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Old Mar 25, 2022, 6:31 am
  #124  
 
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Is Boeing sending a rep?
Why? They will be asked if there are technical assistance only they can provide, besides that, their role is, and should be, limited at this stage.
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Old Mar 25, 2022, 8:35 am
  #125  
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Originally Posted by Scrooge McDuck
Do you have any reference?

If true, then this is very important. A broken off part can have two reasons:
  1. break up mid-air upon "falling" from the sky
  2. mechanical failure causing the crash
If the part would be broken from the plane while being in the deep dive, then I would assume that the part is closer to the crash site. Which - most likely - means that this broken off part of the plane is directly related to the reason for the crash, i.e. mechanical failure. Which leads now to the question, what broke of and why?
Should we also take account of the possibility of three distinct environments in our speculation (still awaiting confirmation)


The high altitude departure from controlled flight
The temporary reversion of the initial dive
The impact with the ground and dispersion of debris
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Old Mar 25, 2022, 9:21 am
  #126  
 
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Originally Posted by Bear96
Just because something is possible or plausible, or because something actually happened (like UA232), doesn't make a similar future outcome "likely."
That's true. The conclusion that US1549 *could* have made it back to LGA (if Sullenberger had ignored all of his training and immediately tried to return) comes to mind. Of course, being just slightly wrong could have killed everyone on board as well as a substantial number of people on the ground, and there was no way for him to know he could have made it at the time.

Originally Posted by jizen
Just received a notification, they found the second black box which is the FDR, unknown condition, will be sent to the lab in Beijing
They also found large piece wreckage 10 kms/6 miles away from the main crash site yesterday

Update: 1 hr later the gov official media said they didn’t find the second black fox, fake news
https://avherald.com/h?article=4f64be2f&opt=0

On Mar 24th 2022 the CAAC reported in their 4th press conference, that a large piece of debris (1.3 meters by 0.1 meters) from the aircraft was found in farmland at Yatang Squad (coordinates N23.3111 E111.0002) in Siwang Village (coordinates N23.3054 E110.9711), about 14km west of the crash site and about 2.7km south of the last ADS-B position in cruise flight at 29100 feet MSL (it needs to be pointed out, we don't know whether this separated before or after the dive at this time).
Looks like something did fall off of the aircraft but we don't know if this happened before or after the initial dive started. However this would seem to reduce the likelihood of the pilot suicide hypothesis. Whatever did happen was a violent enough maneuver to shake something loose from the aircraft (maybe something was already damaged?).

Then there is this:

On Mar 25th 2022 the CAAC reported in the 5th press conference, that the gear box of an engine as well as the main landing gear have been found and recovered. Some of the aircraft parts showed traces of fire. The CVR's memory chip is damaged and needs to be sent to the chip manufacturer for repair according to recommendation by the manufacturer. At this time there are no time estimates of when the data can be downloaded.
Looks like we won't be getting the CVR data today.
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Old Mar 25, 2022, 9:59 am
  #127  
 
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Originally Posted by STS-134
Looks like something did fall off of the aircraft but we don't know if this happened before or after the initial dive started. However this would seem to reduce the likelihood of the pilot suicide hypothesis. Whatever did happen was a violent enough maneuver to shake something loose from the aircraft (maybe something was already damaged?).
What is cause and what is effect? Was the cause a maneuver and the effect to break off a part of the plane or was the cause a technical malfunction, e.g. break off of a part, and the effect the plane to start a deep dive? Don't forget, the crash site is pretty close to the starting point of descent for landing. There are pretty severe forces with that speed working on the plane. Any change of the flight path or a change of air pressure can have the effect that weak parts break and cause a severe failure.
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Old Mar 25, 2022, 3:37 pm
  #128  
 
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Originally Posted by chrisfwm
Why? They will be asked if there are technical assistance only they can provide, besides that, their role is, and should be, limited at this stage.
The aircraft and engine manufacturers are normally invited to participate as parties to the investigation.
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Old Mar 25, 2022, 8:53 pm
  #129  
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Originally Posted by Scrooge McDuck
What is cause and what is effect? Was the cause a maneuver and the effect to break off a part of the plane or was the cause a technical malfunction, e.g. break off of a part, and the effect the plane to start a deep dive? Don't forget, the crash site is pretty close to the starting point of descent for landing. There are pretty severe forces with that speed working on the plane. Any change of the flight path or a change of air pressure can have the effect that weak parts break and cause a severe failure.

Do you have any historical data to back that ?
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Old Mar 26, 2022, 6:40 am
  #130  
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It's interesting that the crash has completely faded from the news.( here in the USA) I haven't seen anything about in in my usual news sources in days. FT is the only source still talking about it.
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Last edited by david55; Mar 26, 2022 at 8:06 am
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Old Mar 26, 2022, 7:58 am
  #131  
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Originally Posted by david55
It's interesting that the crash has completely faded from the news. I haven't seen anything about in in my usual news sources in days. FT is the only source still talking about it.
HK news only reported the deceased identification process. No updates on the aircraft side. Not sure whether it is because they have nothing to report or they have nothing they want to report. Given the period of time elapsed I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt (i.e. the former), notwithstanding my politics.
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Old Mar 26, 2022, 12:39 pm
  #132  
 
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Originally Posted by Lomapaseo
Do you have any historical data to back that ?
Sorry, but I don't understand your question. That is pretty basic engineering stuff.
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Old Mar 26, 2022, 1:55 pm
  #133  
 
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Originally Posted by david55
It's interesting that the crash has completely faded from the news.( here in the USA) I haven't seen anything about in in my usual news sources in days. FT is the only source still talking about it.
Yep, another example of how the media controls everything. And I'm implying no partisanship here. This has been happening across all administrations for many decades. Obviously, the demographic here cares more about a crash than your average viewer but I imagine the story is still interesting to the average American.
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Old Mar 26, 2022, 2:09 pm
  #134  
 
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Originally Posted by david55
It's interesting that the crash has completely faded from the news.( here in the USA) I haven't seen anything about in in my usual news sources in days. FT is the only source still talking about it.
What is there to talk about though until more data is released?
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Old Mar 26, 2022, 4:33 pm
  #135  
 
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From the 6th press conference on March 26
1, 1st debris found 10km away from crash site has been determined as trailing edge of the winglet
2, Another 8x3 cm debris found 12km away, might be from the same wingjet debris
3, Emergency locator transmitter of second black box found, no sign of second box yet
4, The identity of 120 victims out of 132 people on board has been determined by DNA identification
5, No explosive components found at China plane crash site

Source in Chinese media/Xinhua website/CGTN etc

On chinese Tiktok, local residents are saying that the government will reward them whoever find more debris nearby, away from the main crash site
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