Mar 21, 2022, 4:38 am
Last edit by: starflyergold
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China Eastern MU5735 737-800 [not MAX] Crashed 21 March 2022, 132 onboard
Mar 22, 2022, 3:59 pm
#76
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Of course it's pure speculation on my part, but I've seen above that the nose-dive happened right around the time the plane would have begun its normal descent. In my experience as a passenger, that's when the pilots often make their restroom breaks. I think the timing of the problem makes pilot suicide/mass murder a most plausible explanation. I don't know if this Chinese airline does what U.S. airlines do with swapping in/out a FA for a pilot with restroom breaks. But really, what would a FA in the cockpit do if the pilot were to suddenly point the plane down in an almost vertical trajectory? Maybe grab the controls at the vacant seat and try to pull up? That would be consistent with this plane's ill-fated path to the ground.
1. pilot suicide (50%)
2. yet unexplained large un-commanded rudder deflection (20%)
3. microburst/weather (10%)
4. yet unexplained large un-commanded elevator deflection (10%)
5. hijacking and disabling of the pilots (9%)
6. bomb (1%)
Mar 22, 2022, 4:15 pm
#77
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Mar 22, 2022, 4:25 pm
#78
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They might not get the CVR/FDR back https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d-before-crash
”The China Eastern Airlines Corp. jet that crashed Monday was traveling at close to the speed of sound in the moments before it slammed into a hillside, according to a Bloomberg News review of flight-track data.
“Such an impact may complicate the task for investigators because it can obliterate evidence and, in rare cases, damage a plane’s data and voice recorders that are designed to withstand most crashes.”
”The China Eastern Airlines Corp. jet that crashed Monday was traveling at close to the speed of sound in the moments before it slammed into a hillside, according to a Bloomberg News review of flight-track data.
“Such an impact may complicate the task for investigators because it can obliterate evidence and, in rare cases, damage a plane’s data and voice recorders that are designed to withstand most crashes.”
Last edited by l etoile; Mar 22, 2022 at 4:59 pm Reason: Added article summary per rules
Mar 22, 2022, 4:30 pm
#79
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It's some interesting data that show two distinct nearly 2g recovery maneuvers. Also shows that it was accelerating toward the ground, not just in freefall.
Mar 22, 2022, 4:36 pm
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So what are possible causes? My Holiday Inn Express version of the more likely causes are:
1. pilot suicide (50%)
2. yet unexplained large un-commanded rudder deflection (20%)
3. microburst/weather (10%)
4. yet unexplained large un-commanded elevator deflection (10%)
5. hijacking and disabling of the pilots (9%)
6. bomb (1%)
1. pilot suicide (50%)
2. yet unexplained large un-commanded rudder deflection (20%)
3. microburst/weather (10%)
4. yet unexplained large un-commanded elevator deflection (10%)
5. hijacking and disabling of the pilots (9%)
6. bomb (1%)
I'd add some sort of stabilizer deflection or jackscrew problem (different from the elevators), some sort of massive structural failure like a piece of wing, stabilizer, tail, etc... falling off.
Just thinking maybe a door fell off, hit something very important but they didn't know and initiated an emergency descent but then quickly found it unrecoverable and things may have gotten more damaged from the speed and recovery attempts.
Mar 22, 2022, 5:21 pm
#81
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Mar 22, 2022, 5:48 pm
#82
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I actually ran the numbers for the final couple minutes based on ADS-B data. Basically change in vspeed from previous reading converted to acceleration in g +1g for constant gravity load.
It's some interesting data that show two distinct nearly 2g recovery maneuvers. Also shows that it was accelerating toward the ground, not just in freefall.
It's some interesting data that show two distinct nearly 2g recovery maneuvers. Also shows that it was accelerating toward the ground, not just in freefall.
Mar 22, 2022, 6:26 pm
#83
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Also IAS was 457 kts at that point.
Mar 22, 2022, 6:52 pm
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Mar 22, 2022, 7:41 pm
#85
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Mar 22, 2022, 8:03 pm
#86
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Mar 22, 2022, 8:16 pm
#87
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Is it confirmed that there were three on-duty pilots for this flight?
Mar 22, 2022, 8:33 pm
#88
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Mar 22, 2022, 8:41 pm
#89
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However, the MU flight had three pilots. If one goes to the lav, two remain in the cockpit, perhaps with a FA coming into the cockpit too.
Last edited by NewbieRunner; Mar 25, 2022 at 10:34 am Reason: Please use multi-quote function
Mar 22, 2022, 8:59 pm
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It reminds me a bit of the Colgan Air crash, that stalled irrecoverably right at final approach...due to icing, wrong inputs and crew fatigue.
