OZFLYER86

just heard a rumour about a new long haul LCC based somewhere in Pacific to fly between Australia & North America. Did not say from where to where precisely, or when it might start operating, but would have to be after COvid crisis ends.

Told using some of the 1000s of parked aircraft, so presume A330s or B777s & crews from one of many airlines closing down or reducing capacity.

Guess aircraft must be cheap to lease & crews willing to work for less.

Makes sense & probably a good time to start an airline.

Goldorak

Really ?

OZFLYER86

yes couldn't be a better time.

Pent up demand is huge, many traditional airlines in disarray, leases cheap on used aircraft, plenty of crews available.

Doubt if it would be flying this year, but did just read on flightglobal that EU LCCs operating 5,000 flights a day cf. 14,000 same period in 2019, so recovery is happening.

https://www.flightglobal.com/strateg...139478.article

Apparently it might not be a true long haul, but rather, linking 2 medium haul routes.

blandy62

2 medium haul. what does that leave us with? Fiji? What other airports could support that kind of ops between Australia and US?

OZFLYER86

airports in Hawaii, but then they wouldn't fly to USA mainland, as couldn't sell domestic USA sectors, so having a quick look at ports that can take a decent sized widebody.

Fiji, but Fijians are protective of their traffic rights. Air Pacific did fly NAN/HNL/YVR years ago.

Other ports .......... Tahiti, Tonga, Samoa ... what else ? Cook Islands, but think part of their runway disappeared in a big storm.

Guess a 763ER could do Australia/USA one stop, but an LCC would want high destiny seating, So I was thinking A330 or B777.

irishguy28

Demand may be huge (though everything points to the exact opposite), but this is not the right time to start an airline flying between the US and Australia.

And I see no reason why a "new" airline would be required to service this supposed demand; given the number of airliners that are parked up (as you rightly say), why wouldn't an existing player (who already have the spare aircraft, the spare staff, the AOC and the legal right to operate between Australia and the US) not spot this supposed opportunity and act upon it? Particularly a US or Australian based carrier, who actually has the rights to carry passengers between both nations (a new entrant that's not a US or Australian airline can't just automatically start carrying passengers between the two).

If a carrier like Qantas has stopped performing these flights, why would this seem like a good idea for another Australian airline - let alone a totally new LCC - to try?

The number of international arrivals that can land in Australia is currently capped at 1,475 per week. The number of arriving flights is also capped.

Foreign citizens are all but barred from entering Australia, and Australian citizens are all but barred from leaving Australia.

https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet

I don't see any relevance between the number of LCC flights operated within Europe to the chances of a new AU-US LCC. Almost all LCC flights between Europe and the US are now terminated.

If you want to see how European longhaul LCCs have fared, look at Norwegian's complete retreat out of the US market; as well as IAG's Level/openskies.

Nobody is making money on any flights right now, and this is clearly not the time to launch a new airline...let alone a longhaul LCC.

The time to have started a longhaul LCC targeting this market was back when both markets were open, and when the incumbents were charging (very) high fares. Not now, when there are government restrictions in place and airlines are making historically high losses.

blandy62

Of course, there are quite a few airports in the pacific able to support widebody ops. Noumea, Port Vila even Port Moreby, could be added to the list. But my point was more about countries that could be used as an intermediate point for a LCC to generate traffic. If you fly from A to B via C, I assume you need to get traffic between A and C and C and B to make it work. Do you think those pacific ilands can generate that sort of traffic?

OZFLYER86

any cap on arrivals in now. This will change probably in next month or 2.

Look at Tonga. They supposedly received a very cheap or free B752 lease from Royal Brunei back around 2003-4. They flew TBU/AKL & were going to fly TBU/HNL & TBU/NTL (Freedom had just pulled out of AKL/NTL route), but their loads TBU/AKL were awful, possibly due to air NZ dumping seats on route.

Surely if Tonga was offered nonstop flights to Australia, NZ & North America, they would jump at chance.

North America does not only mean USA.

Virtually no aircraft could do North America/Australia nonstop with a full load of high density seating & some freight, so a stop in somewhere like Tonga would make sense, even if mostly only for fuel, but they would get some traffic Australia & NZ to Tonga & Tonga to North America.

Tonga would surely have traffic rights to Australia, NZ & probably Canada, USA & Mexico.

Tonga could earn a little with landing, fuel etc. + some Tongans could be employed, maybe not as pilots, but cabin crew, cleaners etc.

It looks like there will be no Virgin Australia flights to USA for quite a long time, if even again. American & Delta have announced cutbacks, so probably a lot less seats available than prior to covid 19.

In recession, many look for cheaper options. High cost airlines like legacy airlines find it hard to cut costs, especially staffing costs, without having major fights with unions.

One stop Australia to USA has not stopped many Australians flying Air NZ or Fiji air.

They could even call Australia/North America (via Tonga) direct, if same aircraft the whole way.

All seem to make perfect sense to me, with a start date sometime in early 2021.

Lastly, there are many people in Australia earning far more than pre covid 19, due to jobkeeper/jobseeker.

eg. many were earning $100-$400 a week now getting $750 a week from govt.

A large % of these are young people, who will fly LCCs to save money & young people don't worry about travelling, ie. any risk of covid 19. (not many healthy young people die from covid 19)

Although stage 1 ends in Sept, stage 2 is going until March.

This might be the new airline to be based in BNE.

https://www.travelweekly.com.au/arti...%20July%202020

https://www.seek.com.au/job/50222882...d-05e137247ca8

Thinking about a new airline ex BNE using 763ers ...

A high density 763er could fly BNE/HNL & then HNL/TIJ.

The airline could say BNE/SAN DIEGO direct, as it would be same aircraft & think they could sell the HNL/TIJ international sector to San Diego residents.

Pax arriving at TIJ can enter USA via CBX (www.crossborderxpress.com) & vice versa.