Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed

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Old Oct 29, 18, 2:43 pm
  #31  
 
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Very sad news indeed. The last few years, we have traveled extensively throughout SE Asia and have relied mostly on Air Asia (and its sister companies), Thai Lion Air, and a couple other discount carriers. Can't beat the prices compared with the mainline carriers. The great thing about these carriers is that the prices are so low, you can afford to explore a lot of areas. Depending on the nature of the cause of this tragedy, I may have to re-think our mobility in the region.
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Old Oct 29, 18, 2:48 pm
  #32  
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I have flown a half dozen or more different Indonesian airlines. Even while flying the worst, Adam Air, Iíve never really felt unsafe.

Given the rapidly expanding low cost air markets in Asia, Iím sure there will be more crashes, as pilot shortages, drug usage amongst pilots, and stories of bribes to obtain pilot jobs.

Personally, Iíd rate Indonesian airlines as follows:

1. Garuda
2. Citilink (Garuda subsidiary)
3. Air Asia Indonesia
4. Batik
5. Malindo (Malaysian/Indonesian owned)
6. Lion Air
7. Wings Air (Lion Air subsidiary)

There are other airlines, but these are ones Iíve fliwn on, or are pretty familiar with. Lion owns all or part of 3-4 of these.
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Old Oct 29, 18, 3:13 pm
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Originally Posted by Jaimito Cartero View Post
I have flown a half dozen or more different Indonesian airlines. Even while flying the worst, Adam Air, Iíve never really felt unsafe.

Given the rapidly expanding low cost air markets in Asia, Iím sure there will be more crashes, as pilot shortages, drug usage amongst pilots, and stories of bribes to obtain pilot jobs.

Personally, Iíd rate Indonesian airlines as follows:

1. Garuda
2. Citilink (Garuda subsidiary)
3. Air Asia Indonesia
4. Batik
5. Malindo (Malaysian/Indonesian owned)
6. Lion Air
7. Wings Air (Lion Air subsidiary)

There are other airlines, but these are ones Iíve fliwn on, or are pretty familiar with. Lion owns all or part of 3-4 of these.
The problem is that in the vast majority of cases one does not feel unsafe. Unsafe circumstances and practices can exist on a flight that feels completely normal. Every flight is ďsafeĒ until it is not safe.

After all, you would not expect a new 737 max or A320 to feel unsafe. Yet both have been in accidents involving Indonesian LCCs.
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Old Oct 29, 18, 3:24 pm
  #34  
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Originally Posted by MikeFromTokyo View Post


The problem is that in the vast majority of cases one does not feel unsafe. Unsafe circumstances and practices can exist on a flight that feels completely normal. Every flight is ďsafeĒ until it is not safe.

After all, you would not expect a new 737 max or A320 to feel unsafe. Yet both have been in accidents involving Indonesian LCCs.
Oh, Iíve certainly felt unsafe on some carriers, inside and outside of Indonesia. Either from the actions of staff, or my perceived state of the aircraft.
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Old Oct 29, 18, 3:43 pm
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Originally Posted by Jaimito Cartero View Post

Oh, Iíve certainly felt unsafe on some carriers, inside and outside of Indonesia. Either from the actions of staff, or my perceived state of the aircraft.
I do not doubt that you have felt unsafe, and so have I.

The thing is that oneís perception of the state of an aircraft does not mean it is actually unsafe. Equally, just because an aircraft is beautiful and new, and a flight feels safe, does not by any means rule out the possibility that something is unsafe. Hazardous situations can go unnoticed, without any consequences, for a long time before one day there is an accident.
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Old Oct 29, 18, 10:11 pm
  #36  
 
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More details re Lion Flight JT610's accident

From the time take-off was first recorded on radar at an altitude of 350ft at 232110 UTC approximately 50 radar "hits" appear over a period of 10 minutes 35 seconds. The first apparent anomaly occurred between 80 and 105 seconds when the flight seems to have dropped from 2050 ft to 1475 ft. Having reached 5,350 ft at the 3'30" mark the flight fluctuated around and a little above 5,000ft until the 8'15" mark when it appears to have dropped to 4,500ft before regaining altitude to 5,450ft at the ten minute mark.

The last three hits spell out the tragedy all too clearly.

At 10'15" from first radar hit the flight was at 4,900 ft and ten seconds later at 10'25" was at 4,850 ft. The final radar hit, at the 10'35" mark (233145 UTC) shows an altitude of 3,650 ft, a 1,200 ft drop in 10 seconds; 7,200 ft per minute.

Likely it may take months, even years to find out what happened. The pressure will be huge given the amount of orders that are pending.

Being in Canada and with our national airline in the process of preparing to switch much of it's mainline service to the 737Max8 there is considerable concern and interest in the outcome of the investigation.
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Old Oct 29, 18, 11:27 pm
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Originally Posted by MikeFromTokyo View Post
This is true. But I tend to avoid low cost carriers, and particularly those in countries I deem to be high risk, such as Indonesia. When in doubt, a flag carrier or major airline, and preferably one that is a member of one of the three alliances, is always the safer bet. Alliance membership means the airline meets high safety standards, even if the regulation in the country is otherwise questionable.

Bit of a false sense of security there. I draw your attention to Thailand. It went through its safety crisis not too long ago and TG was implicated. Membership in an alliance means nothing anymore. Look at carriers like Egyptair, Air India and Turkish. All members of *A, but I won't step foot on them now. Thai Smile is the LCC for TG and it is not a member of an alliance, but I pick it over Thai Lion anytime I can, and even over Air Asia which I sometimes use. The problem that arises is that on some routes the only options left are LCCs.
In Thailand, TG stopped flying domestic roots except for a handful to HKT, and CNX. The same is seen in Indonesia where many routes are LCC only.

That's not to say that I don't get your point, I would be a liar too if I said I didn't do similar previously. However, in the past 2 years, I have reduced my domestic flights in Asia significantly as I don't have much confidence in the domestic air safety level of SE Asia.

I expect that there be an impact on Lion Air services elsewhere. I was speaking to my friend yesterday and he's about to book a flight to BKK. He sometimes takes Thai Lion because it's dirt cheap and has a convenient schedule. Not anymore. He's going to pay more and fly Thai Smile
Originally Posted by TemboOne View Post

Being in Canada and with our national airline in the process of preparing to switch much of it's mainline service to the 737Max8 there is considerable concern and interest in the outcome of the investigation.
AC started taking delivery in 2017 and there are 18 in service now. If there was going to be an issue, it would have been observed by now. What we have with this crash is most likely going to be improper fleet and service management. If there was a significant electrical fault as has been reported, the aircraft should not have been in service. That's not necessarily Boeing's issue.
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Old Oct 30, 18, 12:36 am
  #38  
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Originally Posted by TemboOne View Post
Being in Canada and with our national airline in the process of preparing to switch much of it's mainline service to the 737Max8 there is considerable concern and interest in the outcome of the investigation.
Given the history of Lion Air and aviation in Indonesia, I'm inclined to believe it was not a catastrophic failure of the aircraft that caused the crash.

Terrible event.

Last edited by bensyd; Oct 30, 18 at 12:43 am
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Old Oct 30, 18, 1:25 am
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Originally Posted by BearX220 View Post
I think that's an overstatement. BBC: "Lion Air Chief Executive Edward Sirait said the plane had an unspecified 'technical issue' on a previous flight, but he said that this had been 'resolved'."
Thanks for the info. All I can say at this point is I hope they truly did not skirt by on issue resolution, but call me jaded.

Now this is not that I am saying poor pilots have nothing to do with these things, as well.
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Old Oct 30, 18, 1:35 am
  #40  
 
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Given that the (relatively) crude telemetry shows the aircraft struggling to gain altitude and speed, my first thought is bird strike on take off or fuel contamination. I also wonder - as the pilot requested a return to the airport right after take off - why would he give no reason - or is that just not being released.
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Old Oct 30, 18, 1:41 am
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Originally Posted by MikeFromTokyo View Post


I do not doubt that you have felt unsafe, and so have I.

The thing is that one’s perception of the state of an aircraft does not mean it is actually unsafe. Equally, just because an aircraft is beautiful and new, and a flight feels safe, does not by any means rule out the possibility that something is unsafe. Hazardous situations can go unnoticed, without any consequences, for a long time before one day there is an accident.

Yes feeling safe is very relative. One might feel safer in brand new place rather than an older one. But a older plane well maintained with a well trained crew is very likely safer to fly on than a not so well maintain new one with crew not so well trained....

About LCC is Asia. When you see their growth (like Air Asia, Lion, VietJet....), I can't believe they can train that many pilots fully. Yes they can fly a plane but how about how to react to a problem, managing crisis... Again I am not saying that the pilots are to blame here. Having say that I am flying Air Asia and Thai Asia quite a bit because I can buy one way ticket and because they have so many flights, it suits my schedule most of the time.
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Old Oct 30, 18, 5:04 am
  #42  
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Originally Posted by Transpacificflyer View Post
....Look at carriers like Egyptair, Air India and Turkish. ...
Why?

I don't like side-tracking this sad thread any further than it has been, but I'm curious about odd-ball personal philosophies.

I mean if your "no fly" list is based on recent pilot-fuelled multi-fatality catastrophes surely Air France should be at the top of your list. If it's based third-part interventions, surely Malaysia deserves a place alongside Egyptair.
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Old Oct 30, 18, 6:24 am
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by Transpacificflyer View Post
Bit of a false sense of security there. I draw your attention to Thailand. It went through its safety crisis not too long ago and TG was implicated. Membership in an alliance means nothing anymore. Look at carriers like Egyptair, Air India and Turkish. All members of *A, but I won't step foot on them now. Thai Smile is the LCC for TG and it is not a member of an alliance, but I pick it over Thai Lion anytime I can, and even over Air Asia which I sometimes use. The problem that arises is that on some routes the only options left are LCCs.
In Thailand, TG stopped flying domestic roots except for a handful to HKT, and CNX. The same is seen in Indonesia where many routes are LCC only.

That's not to say that I don't get your point, I would be a liar too if I said I didn't do similar previously. However, in the past 2 years, I have reduced my domestic flights in Asia significantly as I don't have much confidence in the domestic air safety level of SE Asia.

I expect that there be an impact on Lion Air services elsewhere. I was speaking to my friend yesterday and he's about to book a flight to BKK. He sometimes takes Thai Lion because it's dirt cheap and has a convenient schedule. Not anymore. He's going to pay more and fly Thai Smile


AC started taking delivery in 2017 and there are 18 in service now. If there was going to be an issue, it would have been observed by now. What we have with this crash is most likely going to be improper fleet and service management. If there was a significant electrical fault as has been reported, the aircraft should not have been in service. That's not necessarily Boeing's issue.
I believe TG to be as safe ad other Star Alliance airlines. PG is also safe.

I completely agree. I fly Thai Smile premium economy domestically on routes not serviced by TG or PG.

I would fly Thai Air Asia only in a pinch, if routing and schedule dictated. I would not fly other LCCs including Lion.
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Old Oct 30, 18, 10:18 am
  #44  
 
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What surprises me is the regularity with which Lion Air seems to lose aircraft.

Compare Lion Air to the old days of 1980s Indonesian airlines including Mandala with turboprops only, Sempati before Tommy S, Bouraq, Merpati under Garuda, et al.

Lion Air has already managed to exceed the number of hull losses for all four of these carriers combined, and they were flying much older jets and prop planes, often with worn-out or scavenged parts to a larger number of secondary and tertiary airports without modern terminals or equipment at greater frequency.
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Old Oct 30, 18, 2:25 pm
  #45  
 
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I certainly hope it is not the engines from CFM

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...e-with-engine/
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