IceTrojan

Someone needs to start setting the odds. I'm no pro, but here's my attempt:

Aer Lingus (specifically in 2017) = 5:4
Alaska = 3:1
Westjet = 8:1
RAM = 15:1
Hainan = 15:1
Interjet = 50:1
Leicester City = 5000:1

ylord789

Do not forget this:

Elvis Presley found alive: 2000:1

I was in London just two weeks ago and people in London are smart about almost everything else, except setting odds.



But in all sincerity, One-World really needs a Chinese airline to fill a big blank space.

Calchas

The betting odds are not merely a function of how likely an event is to occur. They also reflect what the market will pay.

Flying Yazata

I venture out a bit and guestimate some 3-7 years from now.

- PR (Philippine Airlines) - They're known to be interested in getting allied. They have a large fleet - bigger than for instance AY. I assume their quality is the only matter of concern. I wouldn't be worried about their safety, taken how they're already at least par with Garuda, if not better. Networkwise they would mainly complete what's left from CX, JL and QF.

- MU (China Eastern) or CZ (China Southern) - There's way too many Chinese/Taiwanese airlines in Skyteam (four of them!), taken how overlapping their networks are. I know FT'ers don't value them or MF (Xiamen Airlines), but you have to look at an alliance as network. CX has good coverage, but it's HKG based and China is vast. The #1 priority should be enhancing OW in Asia as there's only CX and JL (for nitpickers: yes, S7 is technically from Asia).

- HU (Hainan Airlines) - Certainly has quality and is currently vacant from any alliance. Then again not sure if they want to be allied? I'd be more expectant to see any of the Chinese/Taiwanese quartet in ST to get enough of their co-existance.

- DT (TAAG) - I know nobody here fancies them, but the reality is that Africa is way too spotty for OW. They have to do something about it, besides QR doing their "via DOH" expansion strategy. DT has a sound financial background in Angola and taken some 5 years from now, I'm sure the economic growth will further enhance DT as an African player. The problem right now is that the network is too much out of LAD and not one constructed for multiple legs. Other than DT, I don't see anything, besides AT (Royal Air Maroc), in the whole of Africa with any alliance potential. The biggest issue is financial stability, in order for a carrier to be reliable enough for an alliance. You can't pick companies for mutual ticketing, if they evaporate in a whim.

The following one is tricky, but at least some sort of membership would be beneficial:

- FJ (Fiji Airways) - The airlines is already an alliance grade operator and could just fine join in at any given time. It would help covering the Pacific for OW, with nice QF and AA connectivity. Also helps competing with the Kiwis in *A. I know they are small, but there's not many viable options in the region.

moa999

- China remains a hole but the CX/AC cross-shareholding causes all sorts of issues in getting it fixed. A number of OW airlines have relationships with MU/CZ which I think is a result of CX not playing ball and the CX/QF animosity only grew the the Jetstar HK proposal and prevention. How this ultimately turns out is anyones guess

- FJ. QF has actually held a minority share for ages but the relationship ebbs and flows, much like Fiji's governance

Apart from EI I wouldn't be surprised if there are no changes.

Smiley90

What are GAF's complaints with Xaimen? Last time I checked they were better than the ST Chinese airlines...

And if Hainan joins then that'd be ANOTHER AS partner in OW, that'd be crazy.

I still think it should be Westjet, mainly cause I live in Canada and get no EQM on AA when flying Westjet...

Dont think AS will join. HU/Xiamen seem more likely/needed

Flying Yazata

I don't see any true potential in AS joining. They're going to aquire VX (Virgin America), which means they've probably chosen being an indie, while becoming a key player in the lower 48. AA certainly won't want them in the same alliance with such an overlapping network. I'd be less suprised, if AS would become an Etihad Partner. It would be much more beneficial for EY and AS, taken how the takeover of VX would provide EY with connectivity in the States.

Calchas

I agree

khart880

DT-I've thought about this one for a while just because it is an alliance capable carrier. However I dont see it joining any alliance anytime soon (and when/if it does it will probally be drug into STAR with TAP). First the country is growing however they just had a civil war 10 years ago. Second Angola isnt a "major" african country like Kenya or South Africa. It has oil importance buts thats it. Third the routes do not match up.

Heres who I think could be next:
Royal Air Maroc
Aer Lingus (this is pretty obvious by now)
WestJet is a maybe but its a stretch
Alaska is possible mainly because of the west coast coverage (American's west coast coverage is weak)
InterJet will be as soon as the problems can be worked out
Air Tahiti Nui (It's possible and I think they want to do it but I'm not sure of their value)
Keep in mind that while unlikely there is a new group working on Mexicana which could "rejoin"

jahason

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ch...071735928.html

Hainan's parent buying stakes in Virgin Australia and TAP - how does this affect the odds of Hainan joining OW?

Flying Yazata

Actually TP is the reason for why DT wouldn't benefit from going with *A. They're competitors, not collaborators. Sure, as said, DT probably won't join soon, but it's businesswise one of very few African carriers, which is capable of becoming an alliance carrier. AT is the other one. DT would certainly have to improve its network layout first, which I previously pointed out.

moa999

Probably moves it from unlikely to very unlikely imho

AJones2000

What if OW did a "regional" expansion like star did?

There could be carriers that aren't major/intercontinental, but merely add options (think Croatia and Adria in *).

I'm thinking airlines like BKK Airways, InterJet, etc.

Also, here's just a few more thrown out there:

Air Niugini: not really a major player at all, but is very closely allied with QF.

Also, while I've seen Tahiti/Nui thrown out, has anyone thought of FJ? Awesome-looking carrier, partially owned by QF.

Everyone's said AT, but has anyone thought of smaller African carries? Rwandair comes to mind as a decent Afro carrier (about to get some swanky-new A330s with all-aisle J and W)

Last-what about Air Serbia? Maybe EY wants them for itself, who knows, but it seems to be snuggly with AB, and is going to be launching JFK soon.

lokron1125

Wish, AT announce join into oneworld asap...

AJones2000

Are all Full service subsidiaries in OW?
FireFly?
MASwings?
JAC?
(Off the top of my head, might be more)