Spirow

bumped. so.. right now we have UL & QR still in process. and MH now already joined.
so, possibly next would be..

- Hainan - Hongkong Airlines / Air China - Shenzen Airlines - Air Macau
- Philippine Airlines
- TAM
- Tunisair
- Royal Air Maroc
- Some european airlines (maybe LOT, Adria, Croatia, Aegean / Olympic (or both if they are merged), or MeridianaFly)

+ Mexicana comes back (maybe)
+ Possibly Arik Air & IndiGo / Kingfisher

rurouni212

Well, you can add US Airways to this list, although the brand itself may go away. PAL is dependent on CAT II status being lifted. Getting Air China AND Hainan would be rather difficult. In the event of a defection of Air China to Oneworld, Star Alliance would likely grab Hainan. There isn't any particular reason for LOT, Croatia or any of the other small Star Alliance European to defect to Oneworld. I also wouldn't get my hopes up for Kingfisher.

themapelligroup

I think it's time for a china based airline to join, most depends on CX and state approval. TAM is likely to join soon and may be the next member to be announced (apart from US integration into AA coming tomorrow). I don't see the necessity of a North Africa carrier as OW has RJ, IB and soon QR to serve the market. For Europe it depends on what AB is going to do in the future, as they could be forced to switch to ST. I'd love to see IAG taking over AZ and make it be part of OW, but that's just a fantasy and an unrealizable dream of an Italian

moa999

In China,
its either
Air China defects to oneworld to join Cathay, then one of Southern/Eastern or Hainan move to Star
or...
Hainan joins oneworld and Cathay accepts it
or...
Cathay dumps oneworld to move to Star with parent and one of Hainan/Eastern or Southern join oneworld

Either way it will probably be messy,

UA Fan

We have enough defections from Star, please do not take away CA.

themapelligroup

The second option would probably the best one as it doesn't require upheavals, considering BMI and (probably) TAM have switched from Star to OW a third movement seems unlikely.
China Southern may decide to switch from ST. It codeshares with QF (I'm not sure) and I read BA might start codesharing too.

FlyerTalker688786

It does appear:

AA is trying on Hainan (HU)
BA is in talking with CZ
QF is in relationship with MU
and CX is in bed with CA

Another 2-4 years for announcement I guess. Unless a defect happens sooner.

derek2010

But, will CX actually persuade Air China (by its Shareholder identity) and sponsor CA to Oneworld? If yes, then Oneworld wins the China Market and HU may join *A.

FlyerTalker688786

A very difficult task and has failed few years back.

The consensus is that as long as the current CAAC boss is still attached to his position or influence, there would be no chance for CX to take the leap again.

The admiration of the Northern Chinese political elites toward Germany will always be there to influence the alliance choice of the flag carrier. Some of the conservative politicians or bureaucratic will always see the alliance issue as a geopolitical play. Basically CX has no chance to take CA in oneworld in political term, unless there is a major fallout between CA and LH. A fallout between CA and its biggest transpacific partner UA could lead the rethink of CA's position too, but highly unlikely. Commercial terms? Maybe. But that would risk CX to be fully taken over by CA in short and medium terms.

Overall I do not see it happening at all although I wish it could.

CXBA

German political and industrial elite has invested far too much effort and capital to forge a strong and durable relationship with China, so LH will do whatever it takes to ensure that CA remains in * fold. CA would probably defect if it finds * cripples their future plans, whatever they are. The fact that quite a few airlines are quitting * for whatever reasons it may be, seems to indicate the pull of that alliance is losing momentum, so perhaps there is a chance that CA will exit the alliance. Contrary to the consensus on the forum I think that, were CA going to quit, they will do to enter a partnership with one of the ME carriers, probably EK, rather than going together with CX in OW (and again: CA is not yet a controlling shareholder of CX, Swire still is, and any attempt of getting CX subsumed is not gonna to be easy matter, both politically and financially).
OW undoubtedly has got a lot of momentum lately, plus the driving forces behind it, BA and AA, are clearly looking for a mainland partner, after securing SE Asia and ME. CX will not have much to say, except to prepare for the eventuality and negotiate a best possible deal with the new entrant. I do not think CZ will make it for the simple reason they are too much on the back of CX backyard, MU is the strongest candidate for a switch, given the past relationship with OW members and the rather curious way they got into ST. QR could also end having a lot of influence on the final choice, since they need a partner in the area.

Dr. HFH

Not a chance, IMO.

ernestnywang

Yeah LO, JP, and OU are all LH-controlled pretty much, so virtually no chance I believe. IG may be possible.

ernestnywang

Years ago I remember seeing a new report that CX wanted CA to join OW instead of *A during CA's board meeting (after CA announced to join *A but before the process was completed I believe), yet that proposal was rejected in the board meeting.

Xiaotung

Why would CA leave *A? They just got one of their subsidiaries Shenzhen Airlines into *A and are sponsoring BR to join *A in June.

Why wouldn't CX leave oneworld? QF and MU are in the process of setting up Jetstar Hong Kong. Does that not upset CX? They have also teamed up with NZ. Without them, oneworld can get HU all they want.

derek2010

should CX persuade NZ to leave *A and join OW? for better cooperation among HKG-AKL routes?
Also, how can OW expand in China market?