lingua101

With the tight up with Air Berlin, I would thought EY will be the next OW member.

However, with UL is joining now, will EY join the OW?

I am not so shock on UL joining OW, as I think that's good for OW. May be UL/EY will be lesser problem compare to RJ/EY?

Himeno

And their tie up and 5% stake in DJ would suggest not.

T.A.Music

If, at the end of the day, EY decided to join ST, what about AB's faith then?

CXBA

on the FlyingBlue forum there is one post referring an article from a French newspaper, it seems AF (or we should say, their government handlers) is pushing for a full JV with Etihad. I hope for AB sake that WW/IAG is able to either convince EY to join OW or build a counter stake in AB, just to avoid OW left cold feet once more in the Continental European market. Also whomever get EY in bed could possibly have EK in tow, given the continuous rumours about a full merger between the two.
(love anyway AF all-or-nothing attitude: they have done a good scooping of airlines in China keeping them away from either * and OW, and they likely want to repeat the feat in Mideast)

huhuhusky

Well, a stake doesn't mean they have to be in the same alliance. Like CA (* Alliance) and CX (oneworld). They have stake in each other's company, yet they belong to 2 alliances. If EY is to completely buyout AB, then the story is different for sure.

FlyerTalker688786

The chances of the next oneworld member:

TAM 1/4
Phillipines 1/5
Qatar 1/5
US 1/10
Gulf 1/20
Bangkok Airways 1/50
Royal Brunei 1/75
Air Fiji (Air Pacific) 1/100
Air Tahiti Nui 1/120
Meridiana Fly 1/250
West Jet 1/500
Tunisair 1/500
JetStar 1/750
jetblue 1/750
Hainan Airlines 1/750
Etihad 1/1000
Emirates 1/1000

So what does this mean?

I think TAM will be next in line, hopefully. But things can go wrong. After TAM, US and Phillipines stay in best chance. US may take few years, possible after AA emerge from Chapter 11. Still, I think US will end up in oneworld.

Qatar is an interesting case. It may join oneworld sooner than any other carriers. If Qatar joins oneworld, the chance of Etihad in the group will be zil. However, the smaller carrier Gulf Air may stand a chance if their internal problems have been solved and emerging to be a strong boutique carrier again.

Bangkok Airways, Royal Brunei Air fiji and Air Tahiti Nui are those airlines you can never be sure whether they will join any alliance or not. They could easily fit in any alliance (Bangkok will not join star alliance though) or keep indenpendant identity.

Meridiana Fly may end up in oneworld but short term it is unlikely. Maybe change in 3-4 years time. The same applies to Tunisair. Rumours are there but takes time.

Three low cost airlines West Jet, jetblue and JetStar have diffierent story. West Jet have more value to oneworld but they are not committed to anything. jetblue is free after LH stakes withdrawn but they are more inerested to copy Alaska model. jetStar is expanded in such state that even Qantas members can not earn miles/SC with several members of the group. Not alone to let jetStar joining oneworld. So the chances for this three are pretty low. It may happen but it will take much much longer unless something drastic happening.

Hainan's intention of joining oneworld is hanging on the thin thread. Its cooperation with AA is not going forward as planned. Nothing from BA yet not to mention Cathay Pacific. But Cathay still think they could veto Air China's membership of Star Alliance once the current CAAC boss Mr. Li (former CEO of Air China who brought CA to star) retires within one year or two. Hence Air china has better chance of joining oneworld if CX could persuade other shareholders to veto during shareholder meetings. But the 19% of holding in Air China is unlikely to change anything at this stage. So the whole china issue within oneworld is divided and unclear. Air china would be a better choice over Hainan in long term. But in short term, oneworld face the situation of no Chinese mainland carrier.

Etihad is likely to join sky team. Emirates is unlikely to join. But miracles may come along should Qantas have some persuasive suggestions to them. But we know Qantas, some of the proposed ventures never become reality.

Austinrunner

Says who?

J_Fleish

Westjet will eventually join an alliance its just not the right time for them yet. They r in the middle of launching their new entity for regional aircrafts and just entered a contract to be the sole provider for flights for Sunquest Vacations. As a Canadian myself I believe they will join an alliance in 10-20 years down the road after they establish their own long haul network.They have said they plan to purchase 787's in 10-15 years to start establishing their own long haul network. It is smart of them to grow slowly especially because the canadian market is pretty saturated especially on caribbean, mexico and euopean routes which get serviced by Air Transat, Air Canada and Sunwing Airlines.

The real question is since Copa and Avianca-Taca are supposed to join star alliance this wednesday does that mean Latam will join oneworld or is there a better chance that they will be unaligned like Emerites since they r the largest airline in south america. I am hoping for OW sake that Tam joins Lan in OW

moa999

Those odds are chongcao's personal views I think.

Given what has been said about TAM and that it can't really go anywhere else, I'd be willing to take those odds!

Air Fiji I'd be pushing out - given QF has been trying unsuccessfully to sell its stake and is now being pushed off the Board.

Then its groupings - of the ME - Qatar and Ethiad each have some rationale and close relationships and then there is the QF - Emirates press but I suspect this would just be a codeshare if it happens but it might impact the willingness of the others to joing

China - Think you need both Air China and Hainan on there. I see both as equally likely, but if its Hainan I think theres a risk CX moves to Star which leaves a big hole.

US - US, JetBlue - Would think JetBlue should be higher up the list given the AA relationship, depending on what happens with bankruptcy hearings etc

Other Asia/Asia-Pac airlines - All small and dont add that much. India is the whole but Kingfisher if it ever finds its feet is the obvious candidate, with Jet a second.

FlyerTalker688786

Rumour says Jet is to join Star

Himeno

I'd like to see 9W in oneworld, but its up to the Indian government.

Star wants both Air India and Jet. AI would already be in Star if Star wasn't blocking them to try to get both.

FlyerTalker688786

Yes it is a pity. Jet have (or had) relationship with AA, Qantas and Cathay. If BA was not so positive about kingfisher, we may have already have Jet in oneworld one year ago. BA have made a wrong choice on Kingfisher, I hope the Qatar thing could be better. (oh well, clearly many were expecting etihad)

Himeno

If QF hadn't screwed them over with their old deal...

EY tied up with DJ because the deal with QF fell apart.

CXBA

Jet is simply not going to *, no matter how stronger LH desires them into, the failure of last year with AI is still lingering on and GoI has never relented on their intransigence that one and only one airline joins the alliance. At this point Goyal or whoever is in charge is simply probing what is his best option between OW and ST. As for Etihad also I would not be overly preoccupied of the loud noises AF are emitting, they had their best successes when they kept mum and silent.

FlyerTalker688786

you think they can keep quiet?..lol