IB oneworld days numbered?
 

It's being reported on both the BA and LH boards that Lufthansa and Iberia have reached verbal agreement on a takeover deal. Haven't seen anything yet about BA's response to this.

If the deal goes through, it will be a significant coup for LH and *A, who at a stroke will have another sizeable chunk of Europe sewn up and will have a replacement for Varig in the Europe - South America market.

Looks like the shape of oneworld may be about to change again.

I'd be very sad to see IB go, but let's not panic until a deal is done. For those who can read German, the article in der Spiegel is here:

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,476501,00.html

Important bits that have not been mentioned in the other threads so far are the last paragraph is that IB shareholders want to use LH to bid up the price TPG is willing to pay. Moreover, der Spiegel also reports that Mayrhuber characterized the current IB share price as "clearly too expensive" in a very recent interview. You can read it here:

http://flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=680271

A short translation of Mayrhuber's words: looking at the development of earnings [at IB] and its share price, it's clear there is a speculative element. The current valuation is not supported by performance.

I have no idea what's really going on, but based on this information I'd be hesitant to regard this as a done deal.

You can get a poor translation by using this website:
http://babelfish.altavista.com/tr

Maybe they're just trying to make BA pay a premium. Apparently BA has up to 40% right of refusal on any bid. More on other buyers here:
http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds...fx3592250.html
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/busin...052169,00.html


P.S. I just heard some Iberia radio ads for the first time (for the new BOS-MAD route). They even mentioned that you can earn AA miles on their flights. So it's odd to think they'll suddenly leave for *A.

LH is also in talks with BCN airport to create a major hub there -- so they have had their eyes on Spain for a while. BA can block any takeover (that was the point of its 10% holding in IB), but might find it too expensive now (given its costs from having the highest baggage loss rate of any airline in 2006, and the gearing up for T5).

I thought that AA had almost a 10% share of IB stock as well. And doesn't IB have a % of BA stock ?

IIRC AA sold its share in IB to BA.

Which was a mere 1% of IB thus upping BA's stake of 9% to 10%. :)

From my perspective as an SFO-based AA person, losing IB would be a big loss since we'd be down to just AA for mileage accrual across the Atlantic (and MA, I know, but that's a single flight from JFK).

I hope neither happens and IB stays as it is right now.

Steve

MA also has daily YYZ-BUD service, but is just now getting its 3rd longhaul plane, so tiny fleet is an understatement.

Only 2 years ago nobody wanted to fly IB TATL, now it is "preferred" over AA? How times change. The LH involvement seems to be primarily to inconvenience BA or force some other concessions in a negotiated settlement. More legalized blackmail than a real takeover bid.

And Finnair. I will believe IB goes to LH when I see it. I, too, hope that IB stays. Even though they aren't the best airline, they are an alternative.

RJ has the YUL-AMM and the ORD-DTW-AMM, but maybe that's a little too far over the atlantic.

I've always found AY connections to Spain (and southern Europe?) to/from HEL to be really poor. So not really an option for replacing IB.

Other options? for the time being:

AA-codeshare flights on SN metal to BRU (at one time from JFK and/or ORD?).
AA-codeshare flights on EI metal to DUB (still there from JFK, BOS and ORD?).
maybe AA-codeshare flights on TK metal to IST if going to E. Europe (still there from JFK and ORD?).

My bad; I forgot about Finnair; mainly because they almost never seem to come up when I am looking at European trips.

I was discounting YYZ-BUD a bit mainly because it takes 2 flights from the Bay Area to get to YYZ. I think I'd bite the bullet on AS's high F fares SFO-YVR first... :)

Steve

can't see the TK / AA codeshares lasting long once TK become a full member of *A

It would appear that three consortia are poised to submit bids for Iberia on Monday, including Texas Pacific Group. LH and BA are believed to be considering their options.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle1652515.ece