[oneworld] Ex DUB fare collusion?
 

I’ve noticed of late that there is a real lack of decent J fares to the US on OW carriers.

Looking at random dates in May, July & Nov, AC, TP, SK, UA, LX , LH & even TK are offering sub €1800 fares (some sub €1600) to both east & west coast. On the same dates, anything with BA/AA/IB is over €2k, in most cases +€2200.

With EI joining the joint venture, is this some kind of protectionism?

The AJB is still being investigated... https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/investi...ness-agreement

Anecdotally, I'd say its a case of 3 big players = favours company, 4 big players = favours customers. In a way its the same story as the mobile phone companies: 3 established players (EE, O2, Vodafone) plus the 'maverick' (Three, although its mainstream now).

One good outcome for consumers is the joint ventures continues, but Jetblue can properly break into the market through additional slots.

I’m not sure it would indicate collusion if non-OW airlines are offering much better prices, in fact I would say the market is operating as it should.

If you are still wanting to buy OW fares even at a 25% premium then clearly whichever OW loyalty scheme you are a member of is operating very successfully!

For good ex-DUB fares you need to book 4-6 months ahead.

Both July & Nov fit that but prices are no better

Don't know where you're looking but DUB-PSP in November can be had for less than £1400. PSP seems to be a sweet spot at the moment.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...5fb67418a.jpeg

I spent about 5 minutes searching and I see DUB-LHR-LAX rt in Oct and Nov for 1580GBP with BA/AA for a stay of one - two weeks. DUB-TPA rt for 1456GBP for a one week stay in October. There are others.

I’m assuming the fares you’re seeing are advance purchase 6 month midweek fares?

I just typed in a few random dates in October and November as you said there was nothing available in your post for less than 2000GBP.

I booked out of DUB to TUS via LHR, JFK and LAX for October and price was about £1500.

Might be coincidence but the fare rule I have relied on to get several of the Dub-X-X-PSP/TUS returns this year - INX1C1S4- seems to be unavailable for the rest of this year and only D class - DNX1C1S4 - is available. This means £700 extra on the dates I looked at.
The I class fares return in Jan 2025 and prices return to around £1200 in Jan - especially returning to Spain. Example:
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...3ee2b212fb.jpg

It's more like oligopolistic behaviour, which is the way the markets react (and want to react) if competitors are happy with their market share and there are barriers to entry. But it should be said that a lot of focus on the regulators will be on economy fares rather than business fares, and thanks to Norse, Icelandair and Magic there is real competition there, some fares are close to historic low levels after adjusting for inflation.

I can picture readers on this forum based in the UK looking at €2,000 trans-Atlantic J fares and asking how it’s possible for them to ever be so low.

I’ve only recently started taking flights out of DUB, but I was able to pick up a flight from Dublin with an overnight in New York and then onto the Caribbean via Miami for just €2K. That’s not something you’ll be getting from any other European city that I’m aware of.

Google Flights works much better than just typing in random dates at finding with flights with availabilty in lower fares classes ( I class in this case ).
The AP for INX1C1S4 fares is 180 days (roughly 6 months). It's published in the fares rules. Which puts early September as the earliest dates flights will be available for booking with these fares. There is availability in I class to TUS starting in late October. Mid-week travel is also required (Tue-Thu out and Mon-Wed in) with a Saturday night stay.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...e3d0623a56.png

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...8ce054fb66.png

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...99699983d3.png

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...31f9caec4d.png



The fares are available to many destinations in the west at that price, not just PSP. Once again, Google Flights works well at finding these. With 180 day AP, these flights currently potentially have availability starting around Sep 3rd if booking today. PSP looks to have pretty good availability in I class and can be booked for dates in September. TUS does not have as good availability in I class and requires booking dates further out to find flights with I class (as noted above).

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...825fffd72c.png


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...cabd7b5c2e.png