CP will probably leave Oneworld
 

Now that CP has recommended acceptance of AC's offer, it'll probably mean CP will leave Oneworld and possibly join Star.

How stupid are the Oneworld airlines to not help CP this time. They will lose some valuable routings. They will surly regret this very soon.

Regards,
Empress

And perhaps surely as well as surly.

I don't think BA was too worried, an exec from BA was complaining that Canadian was getting too much of the UK-Canada traffic anyway. I'm sure this won't be the final word, esp from AMR.

Well, since they sound like they are doing so well, let's see how Oneworld will do without all of CP's domestic routes. Let's say you need to fly YYZ-YVR on Oneworld, the only way is fly AA connect through ORD which is a pain becuase it increases the overall travel time and the dreadful MD-80/90 that AA uses on its domestic routes as compared to CP/AC's J class sometimes with international configuration. Eventually people will move to AC/CP which is Star. Sooner or later, Oneworld will regret for not helping CP.

Regards,
Empress

A clarification: CP has not recommened acceptance of the AC offer. What they have said is that it is a fair offer, with not further comment, either for or against the offer. However, many people are suggesting that there are so many catches in the AC offer that it doesn't have a hope of being completed.

Ken... they HAVE recommended to accept the offer. It is in the PRESS RELEASE section of CP's website.

Regards,
Empress

And it is also in Air Canada's interest to keep CP with OneWorld (atleast for the time being) because AMR will impose a C$1 billion penalty if CP pulls out of the alliance.

However, I predict that AC will just take over all of CP's international routes and just leave the bits to CP and make OneWorld lose interest.

It is also not that OneWorld does not want to 'help' its Canadian partner. But rather a call for the government to help its own airlines before calling for outside help. It really does not shed very nice light on our Canadian government.

Sunday morning, and it is all over but for the tendering of shares, according to the news stories. Yes, there is the extrication penalty that AC would have to pay on behalf of Cdn to get out of oneworld, but I wouldn't be surprised if AC joins SABRE in exchange for AA's "poison pill", etc. And I agree, both BA and CX would probably prefer to have their routes across the Atlantic and Pacific respectively to themselves without having to share with Cdn. They will figure out ways to counter the STAR/Aeroplan bias their high-yield passengers will have.

In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if we get SE and Elite renewal cards in February, instead of ExecPlat and Gold ones. I doubt Ottawa will give its approval (formally) in time to affect the FF programs for the start of the new year, so Cdn is likely to be in oneworld through most of the coming year. (Just in case, I've just booked my BA F-class trip to South Africa for August. I still think this is the best FF redemption value in either alliance.)

My big worry now is the number of elites at the top two levels vying for upgrades, etc. out of YYZ particularly. We've all read the "fortress hub" blues of our US compariots have posted (Atlanta, Minneapolis, Chicago, Newark) so by next summer we should prepare ourselves for the worst.

At least the oneworld 100K promo has spurred me to reactivate my old AAdvantage account, which should have a modest 125K in it by the time my five flights are posted, and I use next week's YEG-YYZ flights on Cdn to complete my Gold Challenge. (Some elite tier is better than none...)

Is AC still planning on keeping Canadian as a separate entity? I also read somewhere (probably here!!) that Canadian would be code-sharing with DL if the *A deal went through. Any news?

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Cheers.

Leo.

It'll take at least 18 months for the government to approve the deal. At least that's what the news said.

Regards,
Empress

Ok ok ok....

I guess I should have been reading the papers instead of watching the movies and sleeping on the planes for the last two days.

However, on YVR-YYZ Saturday morning (#984-08:30) the crew all seemed very happy and pleasant, which of course is pretty normal for CP crews. Any thoughts on whether they didn't know, or were happy/relieved that this is going down? Anybody fly CP on Sunday? (I've been on AA all day.)

Empress: Don't understand your point regarding Oneworld losing domestic Canada traffice. YVR-YYZ traffic benefits no-one else in Oneworld except CP, and these are their "money losers". AA/BA/CX has coverage to major Canadian cities, and I'm willing to bet the number of BUSINESS travellers moving XXX-YVR-YYZ-XXX is very low, where XXX is a major AA/BA/CX hub.

Only alliance member stand to lose is AA. They will give up coverage to Beijing, Bangkok, and Nagoya. But the recent Eva Airways marketing agreement and existing JAL agreement will give AA customers coverage in Asia, with choice of transit in Taipei/Tokyo/Kansai/Hong Kong instead of the existing Vancouver connection.

There should be a CP FF member movement to demand that CPlus points be allowed to transfer to another Oneworld airline if CP is detached from Oneworld. Any CP VFF care to make that demand, or are you all salivating at the prospect of combining with your existing AC AeroPlan points ?

AA has already applied for US-Beijing rights, and I think may already hold rights to Bangkok as well, but just isn't using them. For AA, they are susposedly waiting for the 777-200X to be launched by Boeing to do these routes.

Burkey:
AA will face stiff competition for the Biejing rights. Where are they planning on flying there from? Probably ORD - I would be surprised if it's DFW. But, I think DL has the strongest case (and that's not just because I'm a DL flyer http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif.) They want to fly nonstop from JFK --> PEK. No airline currently flies nonstop to Beijing from NYC, the largest metropolitan area in the USA. They also want rights from PDX - ORD clearly should come first.

I think DL also has a lot of unused rights in Asia. They, too, also used to serve BKK (and Hong Kong, Taipei to name a few.) They may have sold them though.

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Cheers.

Leo.

Leo, is there a plane out there that can do the JFK-PEK flight non-stop???

[This message has been edited by geo1004 (edited 12-06-1999).]