Smiley90

They definitely won't buy a ticket until they get the travel exemption. They definitely won't be allowed to board before then is my understanding. If they do, then it's either finding the smallest plane in Y even if it means flying in via Europe, or trying to see just how outrageous J prices will be.

bensyd

I think you're overthinking it. If you have a look at the article I quoted the airlines are well aware of what the capacity limits are and are not selling hundreds of seats on a flight where they have been told only 30 pax will be permitted to board. Where they cannot accomodate pax they are re-routing them/putting them on a flight at a later date.

If they are taking your money it's because they intend to transport you on the date you have booked. To reiterate, they are well aware of the capacity constraints and would be selling seats on that basis.

Smiley90

I think the worry is that they can only afford a Y ticket and don't want to buy one only to be kicked off later because the airline managed to sell 50 J tickets instead.

Mwenenzi

As above you are over thinking this. If a seat is bought extremely likely will fly. At the worst maybe the next flight.
All these aircraft are big:- B777, B787, etc type. Plenty of Y seats and cargo capacity. No airline is flying A380. Air NZ fly the A320 for some NZ<---->AU flights, but B787 on the long hauls. On the long haul routes cargo is big business and profitable (rates/kg have increased a lot).
To get a feel of a economy seat price do a test for a seat in a few months time, as above. The transit requirements may also come into play.
The daily limit is about the 14 day hotel requirement capacity. But the government-airlines really do not know how many rooms are needed (couples - families).
I also note you now state " they" . So more than 1 person?

Edit
Getting a little off topic for this thread
I looked on DL LAX-SYD one way for Wednesday 16 Sept (random date)
On the seat map many seats are blocked
Main(L) $773
Comfort Plus (S) $852
Premium Select (A) $1948 {maybe premium economy??}
DeltaOne Suites (D) $5901 [1 only seat available] {business class}

Close in, the next DL seat available is Friday 5 Aug (13 days away)
economy (B) $3994 one way (Yep~ 4 thou) 3 seats left
DeltaOne Suite (D) $7951 one way (Yep~ 8 thou) 1 seats left

Refundable seats always cost more

They will only sell the total number of seats the AU government allows them to
Many airlines have good award availability

CPMaverick

I am a dual AU/US citizen, previous resident of AU, and this is my summary of how I left Australia (pasted from elsewhere as advice on what to do, so the wording may be a bit strange):

I flew on a single Delta ticket, MEL-SYD on VA, overnight layover in SYD, then on to LAX on 13 July. An overnight was required due to flight timing, the Delta 9:30a departure has no flights that can arrive in time to make it (and as it turned out, you need a lot of extra time nowadays).

You need a border declaration permit from Border NSW to fly from MEL-SYD as the NSW border is closed without one. I selected the category "Interstate resident transiting through NSW". I booked a room at the Rydges Sydney International airport, and I used that as my address (since I had no address here any more) This was approved automatically.

Flying MEL-SYD, after checking in with the airline you have to fill out another form, pass a health screening and show your exemption before going through security to the terminal. Keep all your paperwork from this.

After landing in SYD domestic there is an army of health workers to again screen passengers and do a more in-depth interview. You do this interview twice (I guess for redundancy). I had to prove where I had been staying before I left MEL, explain my situation, and again show permits. You must explain where you will be going, show hotel reservations, etc. I suggest hard copies of everything.

Before they release you, you are told a taxi/uber is the only acceptable transit option (no PT for example). You must sit in the back seat with a mask and with the windows down. When you arrive to your hotel, after check-in you must quarantine for 14 days or you can depart for a flight. Again you can only take a taxi/Uber to the airport same process. This quarantine is not enforced but will be spot checked.

Even for a short layover in SYD, you cannot stay airside between the domestic and international terminals, so the process would be the same. Except you would just taxi directly to the international terminal, and your bags may automatically transfer.

I was required to pick up my luggage before getting a taxi to the hotel. I would suggest a taxi rather than an Uber, because the taxi drivers & taxi rank understand what is going on.

I stayed at the Rydges SYD airport and I suggest this as then you can walk into the international terminal in the morning. You can't leave the hotel room otherwise but they have 24/7 room service. I found the service pretty dodgy but the location was worth it.

When you leave the hotel, you go directly to check-in area A where Border Force is located. They will give you your official exemption paperwork. If you are not an Australian resident then you just need to prove this to them. Otherwise you need to have already applied for an exemption for Australian citizens/residents and they will confirm this. Then you can check in for your international flight.

My situation was that I applied for an personal business exemption 2.5 weeks earlier, but had no response. I called Home Affairs on Thursday before my Monday SYD-LAX flight and they 'escalated' my request. On Friday afternoon I called again, and they said it is already escalated, that's all they can do. The phone hours would not reopen until 9am Monday before my 9:30a flight. So I was worried about missing my flight and being stuck at SYD airport for a long time. So on Monday at 6am, I walked to the Border Force and asked them about my application. After a bit of confusion, they made some calls and really went to bat for me. They got me a commissioner's verbal exemption to depart. I was really appreciative.

The DL40 777 had about 60 people on it. Most seemed to be Americans returning home. I have no intention of returning Australia until travel restrictions are lifted.

kirkwoodj

Thanks for that, CPMaverick

bensyd

National Cabinet meeting today confirmed no change in the arrivals caps for now.

dddc

Are the meetings to review caps/border opening scheduled for regular review (eg every 2 weeks say)? Or is it as and when the cabinet wants to make a decision. I would like to plan a trip for Feb/Mar but not if I'd have to take part in a lottery for capped seats or the need to quarantine still. Seeing some good pricing at that time.

To be honest I expect that at least the quarantine will still be in place for most of early next year, but I can dream! Main objective is to see elderly relatives and other family and friends.

bensyd

I think you're dreaming if you think quarantine or the general border restrictions will be gone by Feb/March next year. The CMO has said the border will stay closed for the next 12-18 months or at least until there is a vaccine. If there is no vaccine then it'll be Plan B, which at this point is firmly in the TBA column, at least for the public.

The border restrictions etc have widespread popular support, I'm talking like 90%+ (NB: how popular state border controls are right now) so it's remote that the government has a change of heart. Although I do think some of the outbound travel restrictions will be lifted before the timeframe above.

It's not a great state of affairs, but it is what it is, and I do support it. I empathise because my elderly father lives in the Caribbean and I usually get over there a couple of times a year to visit but I won't be for at least another year. Zoom just ain't the same.

bensyd

It seems as though a few of the backbenchers are starting to get restless over elements of the border closure. The most contentious seems to be the ban on outbound travel* and the number of Australians stuck overseas waiting for flights. The latter has come into sharp relief because South Australia wants to start allowing international students back in next month.

*FWIW, that was introduced before the mandatory hotel quarantine system was introduced and the ban was largely to stop Australians travelling overseas on holiday and then not self-isolating upon their return. See: The Aspen incident

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...17-p55mif.html

Looking at the rates of infection etc the quarantine system could probably take much higher numbers of people returning from most of Europe and East Asia without overburdening it. Those regions have things reasonably under control and returning travellers would be much less likely to be carrying the virus. From what I've been told anecdotally, the high infection rate for those in quarantine (it was over 3% at one point) was being driven by returning travellers from the Americas and South Asia.


In other positive news, NSW seems to have broken the back of the outbreak that came up from Victoria. Case numbers have been declining and there was only two cases today in NSW. It's very unlikely at this point that NSW will end up with a runaway problem like Victoria that might reduce international arrivals into SYD. Touch wood of course, never say never with this damn thing. New South Wales Health really deserve a pat on the back.

DELee

Perhaps. The problem is that positive tests and confirmed cases are lagging indicators of CV-19 spread.

Short of folks taking the spread seriously, quite likely the yo-yo effect will happen again. And again.

David

bensyd

NSW had it down to zero, Sydney had gone weeks without a case but the Victorian situation seeded a new outbreak before the border was closed. That outbreak appears under control and is winding back down. It may not get to zero but it'll get pretty close. Most people are taking it seriously.

Kiwi Flyer

The caps on arrivals isn't just about numbers of infected arrival, but also the capacity of managed isolation and quarantine facilities and the ability of the system to process throughput. Unless standards are weakened (e.g. allowing residents to self-isolate at home) there will always be a need to limit the numbers of arrivals. NZ has the same problem, for the same reasons.

CPMaverick

Yes, but if those numbers are in decline, that's still a good sign. Which they are.

You can increase quarantine capacity without weaking standards, given enough time to do so.

However the more quarantine capacity, the greater chance of it creating a new outbreak. As no quarantine can be risk-free. I think that is driving the numbers moreso than standards or capacity.

dddc

Yeah, I thought I had Buckley's of getting in for a while, but the article here in the Guardian looks like people have to contend with the whims of the airlines choosing who to let on the plane, it the most commercially viable so Y pax aren't getting on in general. Interesting different approaches though. I think the UK gov't of BoJo the Clown and his 1 ring circus are going for the minimum transmissions in the community approach to keep the economy going. Euro nations dependent on tourism have let people travel. Australia and NZ can close off borders far more easily. Both have some risk as we don't know if you have it if you can get it again and if/when a vaccine will be ready. Looks like more staycations and Zoom calls ahead....