nancypants

Assuming you want a genuine answer
-the UQ false positive HIV tests was a significant setback (a very good vaccine, the HIV testing issue was surmountable but not without significant expense and complication in the short term)
-the EU blockade on AZ imports delayed matters
-by which time the AZ vaccine was presenting reports of blood clots- again, not at anywhere close to a significant level but sufficient for Australians to see a (close to zero) local risk from Covid versus a “significantly” (in the public eye) greater risk from vaccines, for a disease that fundamentally is not here in sufficient amounts to sway the public consciousness. Thus, the various departments went into damage limitation mode limiting AZ to over 50s (I feel this was an overreaction, it should have been “less preferred” for under 30s but clearly since the age has been further raised I’m a minority here)
-the Pfizer vaccine was always going to be used in small quantities- the nature of the storage is that it was never going to be used outside major centres- at one point there wasn’t going to be a Pfizer capability in Darwin for example, there certainly wasn’t going to be in Alice springs or remote communities- however the loss of both AZ and UQ meant that this had to be rethought. I can’t emphasise enough how much of a massive logistical hurdle the transition to Pfizer has been. Ultra cold storage is simply something this is not and has not been done on a significant scale, in any country really
-there was a brief US blockade or otherwise delay to Pfizer arriving- this has continued with further supplies not expected until October or so


-the government clearly felt they were hedging their bets quite well with 4 different vaccine candidates using 4 different technologies. Hindsight is always 20/20 and it’s easy with the retrospectoscope to say they should have ordered other options- J&J suffers broadly similar issues to AZ so if they’d gone for 5 options we would be in much the same boat. Moderna is not dissimilar from Pfizer so again, hedging the bets to 6 candidates would not have been the panacea- and indeed remember in the early days when Pfizer was the one killing old people in Norway and AZ was the safer, older technology- yes with hindsight further orders of Pfizer should have been placed but at that exact moment, the public mood was more in favour of AZ than Pfizer. How times change
​​​​​-novavax has been delayed hence not being in use as yet
-what other options to consider? The various Chinese vaccines are not that great and again would not be hugely palatable to the public. I’m a massive Sputnik V fan but the the best of my knowledge, western democracies have not taken this up. What other options are there?

So here we are. What would the US and UK vaccination rates look like if using AZ or J&J had been disallowed there? Probably around double ours ie 20% or so fully vaccinated. But you can’t make the public be vaccinated with something they don’t want.

You also can’t do much against vaccine nationalism other than develop your own capability to produce vaccines. At the time of ordering, with UQ and AZ we were reasonably set for this. It’s easy to say now we should have invested in mRNA technology. But again, memories are short and mRNA was the less trusted (by the public) technology. Would we all have been kind if the government had committed $$$ to build mRNA capable plants, and then Pfizer/moderna had been the vaccines with issues? I think we would not

my only significant criticism is that the government has steadfastly refused to consider any kind of carrot for immunisation. Even now it’s talk of decreased time in quarantine. Given that many/most Australians are not travelling globally and indeed not all that interested in travelling, this is not a strong incentive. There needs to be something more. Ethics frowns on payment for vaccines but I really think that’s the way they need to go- something akin to the baby bonus or perhaps a $2000 tax offset for those fully vaccinated (or with a genuine medical exemption, of which there are very few). I don’t think it makes sense to penalise for not having the vaccine given the current situation, but a carrot would work. But nothing really under consideration

nancypants

This isn’t exactly a trodden path. The UK/US/Swedens of the world could very easily have been on the right end of decision making in 2020, or the wrong end of decision making in 2021. But here we are. We are trying to catch up as best we can.

The federated model does not serve us well in this regard. For example, ScoMo makes an announcement that AZ can be given to under 60s that would like it (there are many, many people from 20 and up in australia that have received 2 doses of AZ and zero complications- the risk/benefit calculation is very much within the realms of acceptable medical practice). And yet, suddenly we have the CHO in Queensland jumping up and down and saying no can do. These kind of things should not be a political matter, they should be for individual patients to discuss with their doctors, within the scope of acceptable medical practice. But now it’s political

18 months on, we still don’t have a universal definition of a hotspot or any uniform approach to quarantine, contact tracing etc. This has resulted in the recent NT outbreak, which would have been very easily avoided if all states were working to the same definition. Politics.

IMOA

Yes, I’m aware of the year. While there is frustration with the vaccine rollout, some fair, some not so much, as a general rule Australians regard the whole thing as the covid response and so would very much rather the overall Australian ‘stuff up’. There are even some people that understand that the success of the health outcomes in 2020 are actually one of the reasons that the vaccine rollout has struggled in 2021.

So keep laughing, we don’t mind. [deleted by moderator]

HB7

You say that "Australians regard the whole thing as the covid response and so would very much rather the overall Australian stuff up". How do you or anyone know what the overall stuff up will be? This is by no means done, and so Australians can't and don't know the answer to that.

JB_NYaus

I have a flight booked in late August from LAX to Sydney as I’m moving back home. I am booked on delta in premium. I just noticed that delta have stopped selling tickets for any flight outside the next few days through to the end of August. This can’t be a good sign right?

Mwenenzi

JB_NYaus Welcome to FT [and back to AU when you arrive]
As post 718 the states have reduced the arrivals by 50%. Instigated by QLD VIC & WA. NSW did not agree with the reduction, but majority rulesSo airlines will be cancelling tickets or maybe complete flights. From seats for sale the USA airlines (AA UA DL) did not seem to be using the full quota (was ~30 flight). With a premium seat you may have a better chance of keeping that seat, compared to those economy.

Please let us know what happens. Many 1000's of people booked to come to AU are going to be disappointed.

bensyd

I think in this thread I floated the idea of a Medicare surcharge for those who are unvaccinated. Justifiable given they are likely to pose a greater burden on the health system.

Wrt the vaccine rollout, IMO, it was a huge failure of government not to buy enough of every vaccine to cover the population given the economic burden of the pandemic. Bu it is what it is. I don't see the point in crying over spilt milk. I couldn't give two f**ks if the UK/US/Europe is laughing at us, they're really not in any position to be laughing at anyone.

nancypants

indeed it’s kind of a bit previous at this stage. There was a lot of criticism of countries such as Canada who had bought enough vaccine to immunise their populations 8 times over. Again, short memories at work. Now we are “dumping” AZ on third world countries such as PNG (again, something I agree with, for the protection of Australia through the Torres Strait), not going down that well in a lot of the recipient countries. Immunisation rate in PNG is atrocious and poses a fairly direct risk to Australia. Supplies were diverted there from Australia a few months back for the very reason of protecting Australians by immunising our closest neighbour

SNA_Flyer

I'm an Australian living in the US who hasn't been home since I voluntarily exiled myself back to the US in March 2020. I have very legitimate reasons to come back, and it's infuriating that the government is trying to play a zero sum game with COVID while much of the rest of the world is trying to adapt and live with it. But we sure love our Nanny State, don't we?

Yes, the first 12 months of COVID were garbage here in Los Angeles. But for the past 4 months, I'm back to normal. Even the 'sky is falling' crew are pretty much getting back to their lives too, and actually seem to be happy about it (and probably wondering why they didn't do it sooner). Meanwhile in Australia, they seem hell bent on destroying certain sectors of the economy, and keeping families apart. The fact that the government wants to further restrict movement and draw this out longer than necessary should worry everyone. Australia is becoming the new Hermit Kingdom - I'll bet that the DRPK opens their tourism gates before Australia does.

I'll take 12 months of garbage over 36 months of Hermit Kingdom (at the rate things are going).

bensyd

What zero sum game?

bensyd

Ironically, Australia was fourth or fifth in the world for number of vaccines per capita. They just ordered the wrong ones. But again, given the cost of the population being unvaccinated they should have just got enough of everything.

Mwenenzi

06 July 2021 (news.com.au)---->Report: Australian Grand Prix cancelled because of Covid-19
With the Dan Andrew's VIC state govt pushing hard for reductions in arrivals, not surprising.
May be the same for Au Tennis Open (Jan 2022). Or as 2021 where Dan A had "~1200 essential workers" enter taking the places of AU citizen in quarantine?.

Edit
(abc.net.au)-->2021 Australian Formula One Grand Prix and MotoGP cancelled

QG

Are the quota numbers for each airline publicly available? Or is it secret squirrel stuff?

lokijuh

I suspect most in Singapore who would like/are currently allowed to travel to Australia (i.e. Australian citizens or Australian PRs) and receive some sort of slight relaxation in Australia (be they increased caps or allowance to home quarantine), would have had Pfizer or Moderna for free from the SG government, rather than paying a private clinic for SinoVac. Could be easily managed anyway, by inspecting e-documentation of the type.

Word on the street (not sure how true that is) is that the Sinovac provides innoculation against the will of the CCP government for those travelling to the PRC. Very popular amongst Chinese citizens who are residents of Singapore, over concerns around ability to travel to China if they don't have a Chinese vaccine. Is that the case in your part of the world as well?

tom tulpe

Secret squirrel.
I really do prefer the NZ way where you book a quarantine place with the government and once you have that you can go and book a flight. Australia is effectively auctioning off entry into the country via airline quotas.