Flights in July just shot up?

Old Feb 20, 18, 10:42 am
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Flights in July just shot up?

Hi FlyerTalk,

I've been exploring a 3-4 week trip to Australia in July leaving from South Florida (MIA/FLL/PBI). The economy roundtrip fares yesterday for much of July on the major airlines were around ~$1200, but today they all shot up to ~$1700 roundtrip. How likely is it that fares will come back down? Why did all the fares increase at once for the whole month?

Thanks!
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Old Feb 20, 18, 1:30 pm
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Originally Posted by Ben Sandler View Post
Hi FlyerTalk,

I've been exploring a 3-4 week trip to Australia in July leaving from South Florida (MIA/FLL/PBI). The economy roundtrip fares yesterday for much of July on the major airlines were around ~$1200, but today they all shot up to ~$1700 roundtrip. How likely is it that fares will come back down? Why did all the fares increase at once for the whole month?

Thanks!
Welcome to FT!
Qantas has been having a sale, maybe the date window just ended & they increased their fares. Could also be another foreign airline.
Hopefully there will be another chance for you!
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Old Feb 20, 18, 7:36 pm
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Ben Sandler Welcome to FT

Originally Posted by Ben Sandler View Post
I've been exploring a 3-4 week trip to Australia in July leaving from South Florida (MIA/FLL/PBI). The economy roundtrip fares yesterday for much of July on the major airlines were around ~$1200, but today they all shot up to ~$1700 round trip. How likely is it that fares will come back down? Why did all the fares increase at once for the whole month?
Most USA Au flight leave from the USA west coast. So your domestic leg may be a possible cause.

You could try pricing from a gateway airport, with a separate USA domestic flight, but that has risks between separate tickets.

And remember SYD is not the only international airport in Australia.

Airlines that fly USA/Canada to/from Australia (not from all airports to all airports)
  • American Airlines AA (LAX - SYD) [OneWorld Alliance] (AS partner)
  • Air Canada AC (YYR – SYD, BNE, MEL 1 Dec 2017 to 1 Feb 2018) [Star Alliance]
  • Air New Zealand NZ (LAX SFO IAH YVR via AKL) [Star Alliance]
  • Air Tahiti Nui TN (LAX via Tahiti. Last segments on codeshares) (AA & DL partner)
  • Delta DL (LAX – SYD) (VA & AS partner) [Skyteam Alliance]
  • Fiji Airways FJ (LAX SFO HNL – BNE SYD MEL ADL via Fiji) (QF, AA & AS partner)
  • Hawaiian HA (HNL – BNE SYD) (AA & VA partner)
  • Jetstar JQ JQ (HNL – SYD BNE)
  • Qantas QF (LAX SFO JFK DFW HNL YVR*– BNE SYD MEL) [OneWorld Alliance] (AS partner) (MEL SFO from 1st Sept 2018) {* seasonal}
  • United UA (LAX SFO IAH*– SYD MEL) [Star Alliance] (*IAH-SYD from 18 Jan 2018)
  • Virgin Australia VA (LAX – BNE SYD MEL) (codeshares with AC*) (Delta & AC** partner) [*= some routes in 2017, ** ffp late 2017(may not have happened)]
And others via Asia & Middle East
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Old Feb 20, 18, 11:06 pm
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Originally Posted by Ben Sandler View Post
Why did all the fares increase at once for the whole month?
IME, ~6-9 months is the sweet spot for fares ex-US to Oz and NZ: ~6 months out for most of the year, but ~9 months out for new year travel. I would hazard a guess and put it down to just passing the ~6 month mark. If they follow the pattern I've seen then they'll dip again around the T-3 month mark from gateway points. As someone else mentioned, it's also worth looking at splitting the ticket if you're not flying from a gateway city. I have had excellent luck from Vancouver (often half the price of LAX or DFW for any given fare class) over the last few years.
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Old Feb 21, 18, 2:25 am
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Super bowl ad for travel to Australia has caused a spike in bookings, and airlines are not dumb, they all raised the prices (not just QF). The power of spending a few million on Superbowl ads (by the Australian gov't in this case, so cost the airlines nothing). Even low-season prices such as October have now been raised by almost 50%. If/when demand drops, the prices will drop again but $1200 MIA-SYD was a bargain, its half-way around the world.
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Old Feb 21, 18, 4:04 pm
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Quite a few sales just ended unfortunately. Next time, if you find a flight you want, try to find the fare rules (a long text document), these usually have booking dates in them. Also, remember the USA has a 24 hour refund policy, so if you aren't sure, just book. You can always refund tomorrow (assuming you can handle the hit on your CC for a few days, this is a pretty easy option).

Originally Posted by number_6 View Post
Super bowl ad for travel to Australia has caused a spike in bookings, and airlines are not dumb, they all raised the prices (not just QF). The power of spending a few million on Superbowl ads
Source? Seems very speculative. I've seen reports of the opposite...
Why travel tech startups think Crocodile Dundee ad was $36m wasted by Tourism Australia | afr.com

The airlines launched a sale to occur at the same time as the ad. They did NOT raise prices, in fact the opposite. Prices after the sale have not really changed to levels above the sale either. The sales would expect to draw in extra bookings, even without the ad. Still, I've seen no reports of a spike in demand.

Last edited by CPMaverick; Feb 21, 18 at 5:37 pm
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Old Feb 21, 18, 5:49 pm
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I've noticed this as well. I was looking to book for a family of 5 from either Dallas or LA to Sydney in late July early August. RT from LA was around 1K while Qantas was running its 'Football Sale' but once that ended all the airlines bumped their fees. I'm really bummed. Here's a tip for the OP. See if you can fly United through Houston. They have a non-stop and last time I looked it was still around 1100.

I don't think they are going to go up from here so I'm just going to watch a few weeks.
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Old Feb 22, 18, 6:04 am
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often a far cheaper way is to get separate tickets, eg. Florida to LAX, SFO, LAS, DFW etc. probably on Southwest & then get separate international tickets, but just allow plenty of connection time, like 4 to 5 hours.

If have time, you could also fly to any LA airport (BUR, ONT, LGB, SNA) or San Diego or any San Fran airport (OAK, SJC).

The savings might more than pay for a night in a hotel to help break up the journey.

We do this all the time.

Hardly ever buy all the way on one ticket. Last trip savings were about $500 each. When multiply that by number of people in the party it adds up.

These days, no matter who you fly with domestically in the USA, they won't take your bags all the way, so might as well fly Southwest, who include up to 3 checked bags free & walk the 400 metres or so to eg. TBIT at LAX or get the free bus.
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Old Feb 22, 18, 4:14 pm
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Originally Posted by southpac View Post
often a far cheaper way is to get separate tickets, eg. Florida to LAX, SFO, LAS, DFW etc. probably on Southwest & then get separate international tickets
This is particularly true if you are flying from a smaller US airport (or to a smaller AU airport).

Originally Posted by southpac View Post
These days, no matter who you fly with domestically in the USA, they won't take your bags all the way,
There are plenty of airlines that will check your bags through on separate tickets. Although it does only work one way (you always have to recollect at your arrival airport to the USA) so it isn't too much different.
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Old Feb 22, 18, 4:35 pm
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Originally Posted by CPMaverick View Post
This is particularly true if you are flying from a smaller US airport (or to a smaller AU airport).



There are plenty of airlines that will check your bags through on separate tickets. Although it does only work one way (you always have to recollect at your arrival airport to the USA) so it isn't too much different.
think you'll now find that checking bags thru on separate tickets boarding in USA has changed. U.S. airlines want you to buy the more expensive single tickets & they can try & charge you the USD$25 or whatever for each checked bag.

AA dom to AA Int - they would NOT do it.
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