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Delta looking to convert NW's 787 orders into 777s

Delta looking to convert NW's 787 orders into 777s

 
Old Dec 1, 2008, 6:49 pm
  #31  
 
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The DC9 replacement process, already started by NW (CR9's and Embraers), is likely to continue and maybe (hopefully) extend to the MD fleet.

The A319s, A320s and older 737s are a different story. Not sure where that is going. DL has been an "all Boeing" airline traditionally, so I doubt they'll be looking at Airbus, but you never know.

I'm just looking forward to DL retiring the 767s (which I very much dislike), but that's many years away. Maybe they will be replaced with 787's and DL is just delaying some of them in favor or 777s which may make more immediate sense. (The jumbos are here to stay, but for how long, really?)
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Old Dec 1, 2008, 6:59 pm
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Originally Posted by florin
(The jumbos are here to stay, but for how long, really?)
And that's an excellent question. NW only owns four of the 16 744s ... but once these are retired, the only real alternatives are the 773 and the A380. The 747-8 is effectively a cargo-only aircraft.
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Old Dec 1, 2008, 8:19 pm
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Originally Posted by tomh009
The 747-8 is effectively a cargo-only aircraft.
You might want to let LH know about that so that they can cancel their passenger versions - H
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Old Dec 1, 2008, 8:26 pm
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Yes ... three years after the launch, Boeing has a grand total of 20 orders from a single commercial airline. A roaring success, the 747-8, isn't it? Admittedly there are some 80 orders for the freighter, but little interest from the airlines.
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Old Dec 1, 2008, 8:29 pm
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Originally Posted by tomh009
Both the 737 and A320 replacements are about 10 years away.
Hence the "many years down the road".

Originally Posted by tomh009
So ... if you were running DL, would you wait 10 years to do replace that part of the new fleet?
Are you offering to pay?

Otherwise I wouldn't expect much change. Delta will rightfully focus on revamping its international fleet--that's where the high yields are, even if doing so means displeasing the numerous frequent flyers who are stuck with poor short-haul birds. As domestic capacity gets cut, the DC-9s then MD-80s will go. Maybe Delta will look into bringing some of NW's 319s/320s out of storage, but I'm not familiar with the lease rates.
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Old Dec 1, 2008, 8:39 pm
  #36  
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Originally Posted by florin
The A319s, A320s and older 737s are a different story. Not sure where that is going. DL has been an "all Boeing" airline traditionally, so I doubt they'll be looking at Airbus, but you never know.
Actually, DL was traditionally a Douglas airline. The 767 was the first real direct purchase from Boeing until the 737-800.
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Old Dec 1, 2008, 8:50 pm
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Originally Posted by tomh009
And that's an excellent question. NW only owns four of the 16 744s ... but once these are retired, the only real alternatives are the 773 and the A380. The 747-8 is effectively a cargo-only aircraft.
I'm a bit suprised DL didn't grab a couple of the Jet Airways 773ERs that went on sale. Both use GE90s. One good thing about the LR means MORE DL f/a crews. I'm pleased!! ^

Last edited by luvsbucks; Dec 1, 2008 at 8:58 pm
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Old Dec 1, 2008, 9:12 pm
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777 Is Better If 787 Goes 9 Across In Coach

The 777 will be a far more comfortable aircraft if DL is putting 9 across in the 787 coach section like most airlines are:

http://blogs.usatoday.com/sky/2006/0..._crammi_1.html

The 777 is 15-16 inches wider inside than the 787, so the 787 will be a tight squeeze, unless DL goes with 10 across in any new 777s like Air France and KLM are doing.
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Old Dec 1, 2008, 9:30 pm
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How to make the 787 a desirable plane to fly in. Not.
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Old Dec 1, 2008, 10:29 pm
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Like others have mentioned, this is not that surprising of a development. The switch in the order isn't an indication that the 787 was a bad order from NW. It just isn't the right order for the new DL/NW. The few routes where the 787-8 is needed can be served in the meantime by the 77L, and the other routes intended to be served by the 787-8 can be flown by either the 767, 77E, A332 or A333.

Not too many people realize that the -9 will have a longer range, more passengers, and a better fuel burn ratio, all at the same time, and comes only a few years later (well, they say only a few years later.) Size-wise, it is about the same as the A330-200, maybe a bit larger. And as we can see by the current shortage of A330s and especially the -200 version across the Pacific, the -9 is currently what is needed for the DL fleet. Even American ordered the 787-9, not the -8.

Maybe later the -8 will also be ordered in numbers to replace thinner 767 transatlantic routes. But not right now. If Delta gets a better deal by switching to the 77L right now and -9s down the road, then it's a good move in my books.
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Old Dec 2, 2008, 1:04 am
  #41  
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Somewhat covered in the threads already is that the 787 was meant to fit a new business model - allowing for small loads for long range pax allowing more point-to-point flights vs the larger aircraft relying on the hub-spoke model. It will be interesting to note that this isn't simply an airplane swap, but perhaps a business model shift now that DL has taken over NW.

Also to note, the 787 was supposed to have a lot more benefits to passengers (better windows, higher humidity levels etc). Not sure if the 777 will have these.
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Old Dec 2, 2008, 1:48 am
  #42  
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Originally Posted by tomh009
...The second wave could include moving the A319 and the smaller 737s to the new aircraft, for a potential purchase of 368 100-150 seat aircraft. Can you say "buying power"?

So ... if you were running DL, would you wait 10 years to do replace that part of the new fleet?
I would think they may wait. With fuel prices relatively low, the pressure to take on capital or lease costs to save on fuel costs is lessened. They should only replace those planes where the combined annual capital/lease, fuel, and maintenance costs of the existing planes would be greater than the planes they would buy, accounting for cash flow considerations, as well.

Aside from any cost savings, waiting also offers some flexibility. Demand is likely to soften to the point that DL may want to contract the fleet, at least temporarily, which would present a good opportunity to retire some of the least efficient planes, without any concern about immediate replacements. If demand doesn't lead DL to contract, then I would think the next jump in fuel costs might.

Regardless, I don't think the short-haul market is much of a growth market and margins, even in times of cheap fuel and high demand, are likely to be continually pressured by the competition. To that end, I would think they may not replace all of the retired aircraft and that the 368 number might be high by as much as 50%.
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Old Dec 2, 2008, 2:45 am
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by BobH
Except when you multiply it by number of miles per flight and number of flights over the life of the plane and take into account the future cost of fuel.

Assuming you can fill up the planes and all other costs are the same.

Bob H
Okay, let's fix loadfactors at 80% in all cabins. Assume that the cost of fuel jumps by 10% every year for the next 30 years, Delta plans to use the planes for 15 years, and it will do an average of 3 round trip flights a week of an average of 10 hours in length in that lifetime. Let me know how the numbers work out.

For the record, I'm neutral on this issue-just curious how the numbers would work out.

I'm still wondering if Boeing will come up with an LR version of the 777-300. Probably basically an 777-300ER with a yet bigger engine and more gas tanks.

Last edited by stupidhead; Dec 2, 2008 at 2:52 am
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Old Dec 2, 2008, 4:39 am
  #44  
 
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Originally Posted by pbarnette
I would think they may wait. With fuel prices relatively low, the pressure to take on capital or lease costs to save on fuel costs is lessened. They should only replace those planes where the combined annual capital/lease, fuel, and maintenance costs of the existing planes would be greater than the planes they would buy, accounting for cash flow considerations, as well.
Oil is indeed cheap now, but I think few people expect it to stay in the $50 range permanently. On the other hand, aircraft are ordered for delivery 2-5 years in the future, and have a useful life of decades.
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Old Dec 2, 2008, 4:47 am
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Originally Posted by tomh
Both the 737 and A320 replacements are about 10 years away.
[QUOTE=Winglets747;10840608]Hence the "many years down the road".

10 years from now, the DC-9s will be 40 years old or so, requiring ever increasing levels of maintenance, and offering customer comfort (especially in Y) below market expectations.

Not to mention that the 737 and A-320 replacements might well be too big to replace the DC-9/MD-80 fleet -- the smallest current 737 have some 140 seats. And at that size the 737/A320 are simply not as efficient as the E-Jets and CSeries.

I have no inside knowledge of what DL's aircraft strategy is, though. But maybe you do?

Originally Posted by Winglets747
Are you offering to pay?
Oh, you and I will pay. It's called an "airfare".
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