Upgrading to SFO?
 

OK, here's another of the "what's my chances" threads. :)

Planning on flying to SFO later in the winter. I'll be Plat (currently Gold) and she's nothing (with NW, that is).

I can fly either through DTW or MSP.
I can fly any day of the week -- actually, mid-week is preferred.
We like to start out later in the morning or early afternoon.

What would you suggest as the best shot, given that I'd have to buy the tickets a couple of months out (so no checking availability the night before or any of that stuff)?

If you buy the ticket now (as a Gold), your status will be stored in the record as "Gold".

It may help your upgrade chances if you wait to buy the ticket when you have officially become Platinum.

And of course, mid week flying offers better chances for upgrades. Sundays, Mondays and Fridays are really tough. I usually expect to sit in the back if flying those days.

NW Scoop said that's no longer the case. EUA does take into account the new status.

MSP-SFO is currently operated 5x daily. DTW-SFO is 3x daily.
MSP-SFO is a somewhat shorter flight than DTW-SFO if you miss the upgrade. Of course, it's also slightly less time in F if you were to get the the UG out of DTW.

I think the common theory is that DTW is a more difficult UG than MSP. I wouldn't know; I've always been upgraded to both. Tu/Wed/Sat are your best days, and usually the AM flights from MSP are lighter than the PM flights. Avoid the A320 on MSP-SFO. Avoid the 5pm MSP-SFO. Avoid the noon DTW-SFO.

That's about it.

Yup; I couldn't have said it better.

I don't think I have ever been upgraded on an A320 to or from DTW and SFO, so I would avoid those as well. The evening DTW->SFO flight may be a 320, so your best bet is probably the 9am flight from DTW or one of the late am/early pm MSP flights.

Over the past 5 years, I only have about 50% upgradesuccess with a companion in the same reservation on the flights to/from DTW and SFO, so don't get your hopes too high. Upgrades from anything less than a Q fare (V, L, T, or K) are rare for me. This seems to be one of the more popular elite-heavy routes.

And NW Scoop was right. I just became plat, and I've been recieving my EUAs earlier than ever. I assume this means the system is working properly.