Basic question: is there at least 1 award seat on EVERY flight?
 

Always looking for insights into the mysteries, contradictions, and secret tricks that rule our experiences with award travel...can anyone provide a solid answer to the questions below?

Background: Of course, we all know that award seats are limited - usually extremely limited. I assume that the exact number of award seats that become available for any given flight is unknowable (because the airlines probably sprinkle a few seats into the award bucket when their load management "system" sees that the flight isn't filling up with paying passengers, they may release a few of those seats for award travel). OK, so there's no way to know how many award seats might be available - the maximum number for a given flight. But how about the *minimum* number of award seats on a flight?

Will there always be (at some point) at least one award ticket on EVERY flight?

I've been trying to figure this out for some time, and so far I can't tell. Knowing this would be helpful in planning a strategy for award travel.

For example, let's say you want to fly to San Juan, PR, at the height of the winter vacation season. You know that the competition for award travel seats will be fierce, so you plan ahead - you want to be the first in line to nab 2 seats from MSP to SJU. You know that seats are not bookable more than 330 days ahead, so you make your move 330 days out (OK, 330 days out from your return date). But on day -330, -329, -328...no seats are available. Every time you check, same situation. The agents at NW won't tell you if any seats will be released, but say to keep trying.

You can try calling them every hour, every day for the next 330 days, but (besides being a very inefficient use of your time), is there any guarantee that you'll ever see any seats available?

So...does anyone know for sure? Are there award seats (that become available at some unknown date) available on EVERY flight? Or are there some flights that never have a single award seat available?

Thanks for your input.

No. There's no guarantee. Award seats can open up and close at any time, so it very much can be a "right place, right time" situation.

A much more efficient use of your time would be to follow the simple procedure I use for ALL award tickets, regardless of whether it's an in-demand destination, high/low season, whatever. And, it works every time.

1. Make sure you know what you're willing to spend. (i.e. only PerkSaver coach, either PerkSaver coach or PerkSaver Business/First, PerkPass coach but not PerkPass Business/First, some combination of these, etc. )
2. Make sure you have the available balance when you try to book the tickets. You wouldn't believe how many people think NW or any other airline will give them a "mileage advance" based on future trips. It just doesn't happen except in the most rarest of circumstances. You can still call in to have them find available flight routings for you, but you won't be able to book/reserve/hold it until you've got the miles.
3. The biggie: Identify all partner airlines that fly to your desired destination. Then, from that, identify all possible routes using your home airline, partner airlines, and their respective hubs, focus cities, and gateways. Remember that you can mix-and-match airlines on an award ticket (i.e. NW from MSP-EWR and CO from EWR-SJU). After you've done that, identify all possible routing combinations that you're willing to take. You must realize, though, that this number can grow to be quite large which means it may take some time to identify all the routings. But this is good for you as more options will mean more chances for finding seats. Just think: "How many ways can I get from MSP to SJU using all of NW's route structure and the route structure of all their partners?" This will probably take the most time of the entire process for you to complete. The more you do this, though, the faster it will go as you'll start to remember things about who flies where and when they fly it.
4. Identify a window of time that you can go. It's best to do this beforehand so that if you can't find something departing on, say Dec. 27th, you're prepared to accept or reject a departure on Dec. 26th/28th. Same goes for the return. Being as flexible as possible with your window of time only helps to increase your odds of getting what you want.
5. Next biggie: write it all down in a format that is easy for you to add to and update as needed and so that you're prepared for the next step,
6. Call the airline to book the tickets. Even if you're not a Platinum (which have phone fees waived), the $15 booking fee will be well worth having someone experienced look this stuff up for you. Then, since you'll have everything laid out in an easy to follow fashion (perhaps ordered by preference of flights?), you can just go down the list and try all the combinations. Something is bound to give somewhere on your list.

Good luck!

Actually, I do every one of the things you suggested (to the Nth degree - I've got maps drawn up that show how I can get from city A to city B, showing each possible leg on each possible partner through each possible connection - and yes, it's a lot of possible combinations; I've got all the route maps and timetables, I know which flights go on which days, which connections would work and which would be impossible or require 20-hour layovers in Atlanta or Newark). This has been my standard practice, and even without huge numbers of miles to spend, I've done pretty well working the system for the past decade or so, doing a modest amount of international travel all on award tickets (the Mrs says I'm obsessed with this stuff, but she doesn't complain about the free tickets to vacation spots). I've got digital files showing/organizing all this info, so I can mix and match items and access all the data as needed on a phone call.

Last weekend I called NW and tried to work the system. I got a very nice, veteran agent who tried all the things I suggested, and told me there was nothing - this was 329 days out from the return date. Her only suggestion was to keep checking the website and keep calling back. She said everything was completely random.

Personally, I don't put a lot of confidence in the info presented on the website, and I'm perfectly willing to pay the small fee to book the flight with a live agent (no status). I'm also pretty determined/stubborn, and if it's necessary to call them twice a day for a few months, I'll do that. But what I'd rather avoid is calling them twice a day for 11 months and never being able to get the seats because there were never going to be any seats - and they knew that.

To clarify/reframe the question, I'm not expecting a guarantee that *I* will get the two award seats that become available (on some unknowable day) on a given flight. There may well be six people who call five minutes before me every day, and they may snag the only 2 seats that will be available on that flight. It's a game. I'm willing to play. I'm just trying to figure out the rules.

What I'm looking for is some indication of whether or not ANYONE has any possibility of getting a seat on a particular flight.

Put another way...

Does every flight have at least one seat that becomes available for award travel? (I'm not asking when - I understand the timing can be completely random - might be 330 days out, might be the day of the flight).

Or...

Are there some flights that never have even a single award seat...and this is known somewhere in the system (even if nobody on the inside will disclose that)?

Hope that makes sense. Thanks.

The gentlemen gave a thoughtful 'no' the first time and detailed how one can optimize his chances. But the answer is still, no - there's no guarantee a single seat will ever be opened for PerkSaver award travel at any time for any specific flight or route.

If one cares to parse the rules for redeeming miles: http://www.nwa.com/worldperks/program/memguide/

I'm glad you got a very nice agent. Reading some of the posts here would lead you to believe NW doesn't employ any... ;)

In any case, that's beside the point. Kudos for being aware of the timeframe and beginning your search early. But, in my experience, it can be very difficult to find availability this far out. The airline doesn't even know how it wants to allocate its revenue seats into which particular fare classes for most flights that far out let alone whether or not they're going to provide any award seats on that flight. My best luck booking award tickets has usually come 4-6 weeks prior to departure, believe it or not. I would generally recommend starting your search in earnest about two months out, but I understand the desire to get things locked in earlier. Unfortunately, you might have to wait until they decide on a closer level just how to allocate seats on that flight with a little more granularity. This far out, I'd save yourself some time and probably check only a few times per week, if even that much. I don't think inventory is that volitile 300+ days out. But, to each his own. ExpertFlyer.com [subscription-based], among other places, provide tools to check inventory on a regular basis and provide you alerts if something opens up. You might consider giving that a try.

As I understand it, no flights are ever specifically designated to not have any award seats available. Even on milestone flights (first flight of a new aircraft type, aircraft/fleet type retirement flight, opening up service to a new destination, etc.) there is usually award inventory, albeit many times at PerkPass award levels.

So, yes, I do think there exists the possibility to get an award seat on any particular flight at some point in time. Some flights may inherently be more difficult to find seats on, though.

Good luck, and have a little faith. ;)

Thanks, that's useful info. FWIW, I've generally had positive experiences with NW WP phone agents (can't say the same for my average experience with United MP agents, but that's another thread).

I know the flights/segments that will work (on NW metal and two partners). For this trip, I know we're up against a lot of tight constraints (we're flexible on our travel dates, but only within a somewhat narrow window - I know this is always a limiting factor, as is the fact that we're looking for seats to a very popular destination during high season). Given all those challenges, I'm simply trying to do everything I can to maximize my chances. My goal is to be there, first in line, ready to finalize things, as soon as any seats become available (since I'm sure there won't be a whole lot of them).

In the past I've had pretty good luck booking award seats far in advance (6-10 months ahead), so I was hoping to do that again. But I understand that may not be possible every time.

Thanks for the suggestion of ExpertFlyer.com - that's the first I've heard of it. Looking over their website, it looks interesting. For me, the value would be in their ability to automate the search for - and subsequently notify me of - when award seats become available (I can use seatguru.com and other resources for many of the things they offer). I'm still mulling whether it's worth the subscription price. I guess (for me) that comes down to exactly how quickly after award seats become available they would be able to alert me so I could act immediately (they appear to be ambiguous on the question of how frequently they search - if it's once a week, I could skip the subscription; if it's once an hour every day, that would provide a better value).

Any opinions on how effective ExpertFlyer.com is at capturing that information (new award seats becoming available) in a very timely manner and then relaying it to a subscriber? Are there other options/services that do the same thing any better/faster/cheaper?

Thanks again.

EF (ExpertFlyer) is pretty quick at notifying when W class becomes available. But do note that the checks EF does become more plentiful as the departure date becomes closer.

You mentioned no status; however, if you did have status, the situation would be a little different since EF doesn't pick up on the hidden fare classes available to elite members.

Any idea of what "quick" means in this context? - seconds, minutes, hours, days, weeks...?

This begs the question - when they're checking further out, I wonder how useful is the search & notification function is? Granted, I can see the need for increased search frequency as the date approaches...but personally I'd prefer to make plans further ahead.

As I'm not likely to gain status anytime in the immediate future, this is probably moot for me.

Regarding EF's search-and-notification service, does one get any feedback that it has done it's search but found no new seats? Or does it only provide positive alerts? If it sends a "nothing found" message, one could easily determine the frequency of the search attempts.

Thanks.

You'll have to ask the folks at EF for that.
Nothing in this world is ideal. If you can find something better than what EF provides, more power to you. But there's nothing out there that I know of.
Right. And that line wasn't directed at you.
Only positive alerts.

They give you a free trial. Why not try it out?

Is EF good for alerting you about W availability on KL flights? Any experiences?

I'm sympathetic to nwflyboy's concern.

Now that I've read the EF FAQ, I'll be doing a daily search of my own on upgrade inventory I'm waiting on.

I have found KVS to be an excellent tool to already have identified the exact flights with availability to fly on NW, KL, AF, CO, etc. All you have to do is then call up the award line and give dictation...

AAnother Airline
 

OT, but actually I believe that it is AA's policy to advance you up to 5,000 miles for an award ticket and to let your account go negative. I've had them do this twice for me and I've never had any status with them.

UA has done this for me in the past but I believe it was a Customer Service decision and not policy as I was 1K at the time.

Ok, for the purposes of this thread (since it is the NW forum), let's just restrict that statement I made to say that NW won't advance you any miles based on future travel bookings or how nicely you plead. ;)