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Coronavirus in Sweden

Coronavirus in Sweden

Old Apr 8, 2020, 4:48 am
  #106  
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Interesting article in the Norwegian VG today, "The Experts and Erna Don't Agree":
https://www.vg.no/nyheter/meninger/i...-er-ikke-enige

The Norwegian government has decided to gradually open up during the spring (thus implementing more of Sweden's policy). Folkhelseinstituttet has released a new report, with some quotes and translations:

Befolkningen m forberedes p at epidemien vil komme, og mange vil da bli syke og noen alvorlig syke.

The population must be prepared that the epidemic will come, and many will be sick and some seriously sick.
alle strategier er eksperimenter

all strategies are experiments
They recommend to finish all restrictions that have "antatt liten eller usikker smitteverneffekt og stor tiltaksbyrde", "supposed small or uncertain infectious effect and a large burden," such as closing schools and kindergardens.

They estimate that around 14,000 in the population were infected until April 5.

The paint a scenario where the epidemic will last for about a year in Norway, with an apex of up to 36,000 ill people and 1200 in intensive care.

They also say that if Norway should continue the lockdown, it would have to be locked down for at least two years until a vaccine is ready. But there's no guarantee that a vaccine will actually be ready in two years from now.
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 4:54 am
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Originally Posted by nacho
The thing is I know a lot who have been here for over 5 years and are still renting a place to live. It makes no sense to me to dump 20k+ rent into a big blue sea every month and on top of that you need to pay utilities etc. These people I know are not particularly well-off or anything. I just have a hard time believing that it makes sense financially to do - unless you can get rent subsidy from the government (also a lot of these people have their own company).
Don't forget that Sweden is also the one country I know where buying an apartment comes with a higher monthly cost than buying a house. Home owner association fees of 8-9k kr on top of mortgages is mental. Tiny apartments costing double that of a villa in a nice area.

All artificially designed by a corrupt government that is heavily investment in construction companies that keep regular housing a nuisance through poor and subpar infrastructure and horribly expensive parking.
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 6:31 am
  #108  
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Originally Posted by FlyingMoose
Don't forget that Sweden is also the one country I know where buying an apartment comes with a higher monthly cost than buying a house. Home owner association fees of 8-9k kr on top of mortgages is mental. Tiny apartments costing double that of a villa in a nice area.

All artificially designed by a corrupt government that is heavily investment in construction companies that keep regular housing a nuisance through poor and subpar infrastructure and horribly expensive parking.
This has sort of been the dynamic in Sweden for decades, and it's part of the structure that is sticky. But it's also a case often of the higher the co-op association fee, the lower the property value/sale price for the housing units. It's not unusual in parts of the world -- even in parts of the US -- for a co-op or condo fee (whether via the monthly fee or "one-time assessments" or both) to be high even when the individual home owner's monthly mortgage costs may be relatively low.

The monthly co-op association fees charged to individual co-op home shareholders in Sweden do indeed tend to be rather high and often higher than many a monthly mortgage payment, but that's because the co-op as a whole tends to have its own debts and expenses and financing needs to consider and hits the co-op home owners for that while not pushing the associations' accounts to the brink of being hit with financing penalties and overdue bill charges or doing a lot of big one-time assessment charges. If the co-op associations are able to tap into lower mortgage rates -- and that is probably easier said than done in many cases -- then those monthly co-op association fees could drop a tiny bit at this time. But as interest rates were already very low, there's no big across-the-board assistance to come in that way at this time when the job picture in Sweden is very ugly and about to hit the housing market very hard.

I've been following the housing market in Sweden quite intensely, and it seems like free-standing houses are still going into contract in high demand areas at +/- 5% of asking price while cheaper and more marginal housing stock is coming in with low-ball bids already and just about everything taking longer to close, if closing at all. There definitely is no longer the kind of bidding wars going on even around Malmo that was going on earlier this quarter. And the Malmo+ surrounding area has more or less had some of the strongest housing market areas in the country during the last couple of years.

Even with the lock-downs being set for easing up later this spring in Denmark, it's still going to be a struggle in southern Sweden for things to recover. The financial damage is already so substantial that there is no easy and fast recovery path to returning to the status from this time last year. And people will be slow to spend/commit money after having taken a financial beating ..... even if they get by without personally knowing anyone seriously hit or killed with this virus.

It will be interesting to see if we can find out how much more money the government ends up spending on medicines to treat mental illness in Sweden this year and next year than was the case last year. Between anxiety over the virus situation and the economic fallout from the virus situation, the psychiatrists offices will probably be in higher demand than usual.

Last edited by GUWonder; Apr 8, 2020 at 6:42 am
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 8:53 am
  #109  
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Originally Posted by FlyingMoose
The police is to busy writing speeding tickets and doing alcohol checks because the system needs money.
Don't think they are doing any right now because of the virus.

Originally Posted by FlyingMoose
Don't forget that Sweden is also the one country I know where buying an apartment comes with a higher monthly cost than buying a house. Home owner association fees of 8-9k kr on top of mortgages is mental. Tiny apartments costing double that of a villa in a nice area.

All artificially designed by a corrupt government that is heavily investment in construction companies that keep regular housing a nuisance through poor and subpar infrastructure and horribly expensive parking.
A friend of mine lives in a row house in Lund (bostadratt), she pays something like 4-5K for this and that. To determine whether it's insane to pay 8-9k per year depends on what's included - take a villa 10 minutes walk from our home, they belong to the same obsolete cable association which takes 2200 kr for TV fee, then they also have a 2500 kr clean up maintenance fee (I guess it's for plowing snow or whatever crap that is - fortunately we belong to one that made up of low income families so they keep the fee to 300kr/year), don't forget these idiotic fees don't cover trash removal which you normally have that included in your fee in an apartment, which is like 2000 kr. a year. So, a villa can have pretty insane fees too, not 8-9k but we are talking about a small town 50km from Malmo vs a decent seaside apartment.

About parking - have you seen those microscopic newly built villa quarters (like 140 sqm)? They don't even have space for 2 cars in their driveway and roads in those neighbourhoods is only wide enough for a trash collection truck to go through. In those places visitors will have to use guest parking which might not be free or there are like 3 slots for 20 houses or something like that.

In Denmark there's a place called Oersted (close to the Fields mall), the kommun didn't plan enough parking for all residence and they actually stood up and complained and now Copenhagen kommun has done something to solve the problem.

Originally Posted by GUWonder
This has sort of been the dynamic in Sweden for decades, and it's part of the structure that is sticky. But it's also a case often of the higher the co-op association fee, the lower the property value/sale price for the housing units. It's not unusual in parts of the world -- even in parts of the US -- for a co-op or condo fee (whether via the monthly fee or "one-time assessments" or both) to be high even when the individual home owner's monthly mortgage costs may be relatively low.

The monthly co-op association fees charged to individual co-op home shareholders in Sweden do indeed tend to be rather high and often higher than many a monthly mortgage payment, but that's because the co-op as a whole tends to have its own debts and expenses and financing needs to consider and hits the co-op home owners for that while not pushing the associations' accounts to the brink of being hit with financing penalties and overdue bill charges or doing a lot of big one-time assessment charges. If the co-op associations are able to tap into lower mortgage rates -- and that is probably easier said than done in many cases -- then those monthly co-op association fees could drop a tiny bit at this time. But as interest rates were already very low, there's no big across-the-board assistance to come in that way at this time when the job picture in Sweden is very ugly and about to hit the housing market very hard.

I've been following the housing market in Sweden quite intensely, and it seems like free-standing houses are still going into contract in high demand areas at +/- 5% of asking price while cheaper and more marginal housing stock is coming in with low-ball bids already and just about everything taking longer to close, if closing at all. There definitely is no longer the kind of bidding wars going on even around Malmo that was going on earlier this quarter. And the Malmo+ surrounding area has more or less had some of the strongest housing market areas in the country during the last couple of years.

Even with the lock-downs being set for easing up later this spring in Denmark, it's still going to be a struggle in southern Sweden for things to recover. The financial damage is already so substantial that there is no easy and fast recovery path to returning to the status from this time last year. And people will be slow to spend/commit money after having taken a financial beating ..... even if they get by without personally knowing anyone seriously hit or killed with this virus.

It will be interesting to see if we can find out how much more money the government ends up spending on medicines to treat mental illness in Sweden this year and next year than was the case last year. Between anxiety over the virus situation and the economic fallout from the virus situation, the psychiatrists offices will probably be in higher demand than usual.
Coop fee and property value aren't related totally, as far as I know it depends on how much the coop has paid off the debt. Look at those tiny apartment at Hyllie - they were throwing 3 month no avgift and asking for like 5M for a tiny apartment. I know someone who is very proud of her house in LImhamn worths over 8M - there's supply but I doubt the demand is there.

To me the "associations" are an extra layer of bureaucracy more than anything, it serves no purpose. I'm paying 2200kr/year for TV channels that I don't watch, and 300kr/year for a playground that no one uses (I guess it's better than those houses 10 minutes walk away with a 2500/year bill).

The condo fee (at least in Canada and Hong Kong) contains more than the basic trash collecting crap, it includes club house fee, security, street cleaning, landscaping the area bla bla bla. I know some Coop requires people to clean the stairway in Lund!

I think the job situation in Southern Sweden might affect the illegals - either they don't have jobs anymore or they are more in demand because people don't want to pay taxes. Some said there's a high demand in delivery services, and they need people now (the problem is whether delivery jobs will still be there after the mess).

Don't worry Sweden doesn't have $ to treat mental patients, queues to get to a BUP is around 2-3 hours on the phone before the crisis.

Last edited by nacho; Apr 8, 2020 at 9:00 am
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 10:31 am
  #110  
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It seems like getting a speeding ticket from speed cameras is easier in Sweden than getting pulled over by the police nowadays while speeding. Not sure where all the police have gone, but they indeed don't seem to be out like usual. Parking enforcement is a different story, and given the dearth of parking places, it's probably still ok business for the parking enforcement types.

3 months no co-op association fee is a gimmick and not the same thing as a very low association fee longer term. Buying into such a gimmick does no one any good except the builders and brokers trying to sell new construction units despite the high long-term price of buying into the association.

If there are two similar properties in the same area, and one has a high monthly association fee and the other has a lower association fee, the value/price of the properties tend to reflect that difference. It does in NYC with condos/co-ops and it does with co-ops in Malmo. There are of course exceptions and variations, as it's not a perfect relationship since we are dealing with people and other factors; but the general dynamic is that having a high monthly association fee is factored into what the prevailing market price to buy a place ends up being in a given area. And most rational individuals consider total monthly housing costs when deciding what kind of home they can afford to buy and at what price to buy a place. With the hit to the employment and income picture in Sweden too, the housing market will struggle. And closing housing prices for co-operative housing that come on the market will reflect that for those co-ops -- perhaps more so if the associations have messed up finances too.

Co-ops around Malmo that could be bought for under 1.3M just 2-4 years ago were clearing for as much as 2.5M a month ago ... even as the monthly association fees could be in the 6k-9k range. New construction coming on the market is probably going to be hit very hard .... and it already appears to be the case that people who had signed up to buy into new co-ops back out and the units come on the market again even before the buildings are opened. And it's happening in a way that seems to be headed to become more extreme now than during 2008-2010.

Free-standing houses on the upper end of the market won't be spared the hit. The virus situation has killed off much of the business for the business owner class and put dual-earning upper-income households in precarious positions .... even with things not being shut-down like in many other countries near and far. So the supply out there won't clear like it would a few months ago or even a couple of years ago, but the demand is indeed not. Although never discount the fact that: some may be lucky; and a fool and a fool's money being parted is a dynamic that has no boundaries and exists in good and bad times.

Last edited by GUWonder; Apr 8, 2020 at 10:45 am
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 11:36 am
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
It seems like getting a speeding ticket from speed cameras is easier in Sweden than getting pulled over by the police nowadays while speeding. Not sure where all the police have gone, but they indeed don't seem to be out like usual. Parking enforcement is a different story, and given the dearth of parking places, it's probably still ok business for the parking enforcement types.
Working from home I've seen police a number of times recently. Late last week a police patrol was trying to open doors of the house next door. Yesterday the helicopter was here for a long time and soon followed by police on the ground.

I live in a no go area so that's an explanation but maybe police retreated from the nice areas and focused on their core tasks?
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 11:46 am
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Originally Posted by Fredrik74
Working from home I've seen police a number of times recently. Late last week a police patrol was trying to open doors of the house next door. Yesterday the helicopter was here for a long time and soon followed by police on the ground.

I live in a no go area so that's an explanation but maybe police retreated from the nice areas and focused on their core tasks?
So much for being a "no-go" area. It sounds like you live in a more dense area that may have more domestic violence calls and perhaps more alcohol and other drug abuse and related stuff going on than some other areas. Do you happen to be in one of the top 5 Stockholm neighborhoods for cases of this coronavirus? It sounds like you could be.

The worst speeders I've encountered in Sweden seem to have cars registered in areas that suggest they have more income to pay a fine than the average Swede. But since these kind of people may tend to be among the least likely to need to drive to work in a rush daily during this era of "work out of home if you can", there are probably less drivers to pull over in these areas than usual. And with home-break-ins down due to this situation, they don't seem to patrol as usual for that purpose either. But I guess I will have to find out what is going on with police activity around Lindangen and Rosengard in Malmo to get a better sense of what you may be experiencing with police presence.

I've experienced more than my fair share of police helicopters on the hunt for criminals in Sweden -- both in Stockholm and in Malmo -- but I've noticed more Swedish military helicopter activity as of late than Swedish police helicopter activity as of late.

Last edited by GUWonder; Apr 8, 2020 at 11:53 am
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 12:34 pm
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Luckily I don't live in the very worst area of Stockholm but it is one of the 53 'vulnerable' areas.I did get Covid-19 information in Somali so I guess the government knows a few things about the neighbourhood too.
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 3:27 pm
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
The worst speeders I've encountered in Sweden seem to have cars registered in areas that suggest they have more income to pay a fine than the average Swede. But since these kind of people may tend to be among the least likely to need to drive to work in a rush daily during this era of "work out of home if you can", there are probably less drivers to pull over in these areas than usual. And with home-break-ins down due to this situation, they don't seem to patrol as usual for that purpose either. But I guess I will have to find out what is going on with police activity around Lindangen and Rosengard in Malmo to get a better sense of what you may be experiencing with police presence.

I've experienced more than my fair share of police helicopters on the hunt for criminals in Sweden -- both in Stockholm and in Malmo -- but I've noticed more Swedish military helicopter activity as of late than Swedish police helicopter activity as of late.
I saw on the news once someone drove a Ferrari over 200km/h on Drottninggatan in Malmo. It seems that speed bumps are the solution for speeding here, and I hate to drive through those and both of my cars had their exhaust pipe broken because of constant driving on these idiotic things.

Korsback is not exactly a nice area in Malmo either.
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 4:28 pm
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Aftonbladet reports that the police in Stockholm are planning to keep riot squads on call near emergency rooms since they antipicate what could happen once beds are no longer available.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a...gt-vid-sjukhus
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 6:25 pm
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
The Swedish currency is sinking to lows against the US Dollar and been headed toward levels not seen since around 2001.
What was the value in 2001, please? I cannot find a table that goes back to this date.
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Old Apr 8, 2020, 11:23 pm
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Originally Posted by bluesaturn
What was the value in 2001, please? I cannot find a table that goes back to this date.
Approaching 11 SEK/USD was the extreme during the past 20 years, and it came in the summer of 2001 a few weeks before Labor Day in the US.
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Old Apr 9, 2020, 4:19 am
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Originally Posted by bluesaturn
What was the value in 2001, please? I cannot find a table that goes back to this date.
https://fxtop.com/en/historical-exch...J=0&MM1Y=0&TR=
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Old Apr 9, 2020, 6:05 am
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So something around 8 weeks before (US) Labor Day that summer in 2001.
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Old Apr 9, 2020, 6:12 am
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Originally Posted by Fredrik74
Aftonbladet reports that the police in Stockholm are planning to keep riot squads on call near emergency rooms since they antipicate what could happen once beds are no longer available.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a...gt-vid-sjukhus
Well, I guess the PPE for riot-response police teams will be useful to keep them a bit safer from the virus that any such emergency room protesters may be more likely to have than the population at large.

There are strong indications in places outside of Sweden that have been hit hard by this virus that police are way more likely than average to test positive for the virus. I would expect there to be much the same dynamic in place in Stockholm.

In other news about the virus spread, it's starting to ramp up in southern Sweden, and the Easter festivity attendees will probably make a great contribution to the hit that shows up in May and June in Skane with death counts.
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