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Coronavirus in Sweden

Coronavirus in Sweden

Old Sep 15, 20, 5:54 am
  #1126  
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Originally Posted by deniah View Post
This is the total covid death in Norway, histogram of age. There are a total of 6 people below the age of 49.

Keep in mind the avg life expectancy in this country is 83 for women, 79 for men.
Adult women in the Scandinavian countries still tend to be healthier than men at all age levels and to also live longer than men, so I find the above chart to be sort of like what I would expect it to be like.

Anyone have a chart juxtaposing the same sort of data for Sweden as with data in the above-presented COVID-19 fatality data for Norway?

Last edited by GUWonder; Sep 15, 20 at 7:02 am
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Old Sep 15, 20, 1:01 pm
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Originally Posted by RedChili View Post
And that's the same point that Professor Ioannidis made in the quote I had from him in reply 1088: "A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza.
At least hereabouts that's not true. Our seasonal fatalities are 500-1000 out of 5,5 million. At the top end it's 0,02%, at the lower end (as this year) it's 0,01%, one fifth of the figure mentioned.

Having said that, the covid deaths (<400) are still lower than the seasonal influenza this year, which was 500 (and considered very low) - the latter was a two-liner news in March.
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Old Sep 15, 20, 5:13 pm
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Originally Posted by WilcoRoger View Post
At least hereabouts that's not true. Our seasonal fatalities are 500-1000 out of 5,5 million. At the top end it's 0,02%, at the lower end (as this year) it's 0,01%, one fifth of the figure mentioned.
That figure was the lower end of his preliminary calculations for mortality rate of covid-19. At that time, 1% of the infected passengers on the Diamond Princess had died (that cruise ship was the only place where the entire "population" had been tested). Most of those passengers were elderly. When he adjusted that figure for the actual U.S. population, he came up with a mortality rate of, IIRC, 0.175% of the infected. Then he adjusted that number for a lot of other factors and came up with a span of, IIRC, 0.05%-0.8%. That's the percentage of infected people that die. At that time, the WHO claimed that the mortality was about 3.7%.
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Old Sep 16, 20, 4:17 am
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OK, I misinterpreted the concept of "population wide rate".

OT - estimates with a sixteen-fold gap between the bottom and top range are not very useful.
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Old Sep 16, 20, 3:27 pm
  #1130  
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Death rates of sort for this virus situation get worse when the healthcare system is overwhelmed in ways.

The Swedish healthcare system was overwhelmed in ways by coronavirus cases during some time within the second quarter. And its being overwhelmed would have been even more extreme and publicly apparent if the Swedish system would have advised that Covid-19 patients in Swedish elderly living facilities should be moved to hospitals for care rather than to simply keep such infected elderly at the elderly living facilities and to put them on morphine as a near default measure. Sending the elderly infected to the hospitals? That wasn’t the official suggestion. It was more or less de facto palliative care without much, if any, material care intervention to support recovery of the sick in Swedish elderly living facilities.

A long time ago, a wise old Swede told me that Sweden is a great place for the young and old but not so great for those in their prime salaried earning years. This coronavirus situation in Sweden may highlight the need for that to be amended to factor in the way that the elderly may be left to die rather than treated in a hospital.

A window into this coronavirus non-treatment situation in Sweden was touched upon here:

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Old Sep 18, 20, 2:10 am
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Originally Posted by WilcoRoger View Post
Having said that, the covid deaths (<400) are still lower than the seasonal influenza this year, which was 500 (and considered very low) - the latter was a two-liner news in March.
Still, Tegnell is saying that a prime reason for the high COVID deaths among the elderly in Sweden is that they did not die from influenza but from COVID instead. Why did this then not happen in Finland and Norway. Tegnellís credibility is in my eyes sinking further. I even feel sorry for him.
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Old Sep 18, 20, 2:18 am
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Finland's covid deaths have also been predominantly among the elderly. In April the median (!) age of covid victims was 82, so Tegnell's argument might even hold here, though I haven't heard or read anything along these lines.
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Old Sep 18, 20, 2:50 pm
  #1133  
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Originally Posted by tsastor View Post
Still, Tegnell is saying that a prime reason for the high COVID deaths among the elderly in Sweden is that they did not die from influenza but from COVID instead. Why did this then not happen in Finland and Norway. Tegnellís credibility is in my eyes sinking further. I even feel sorry for him.
If I understood him correctly, he was talking about last year's flu season. The flu of 2019 was an extremely mild flu season, with very few deaths in Sweden. The mild flu of 2019 meant that Sweden had an "excess" number of fragile elderly people who would be easy victims of any 2020 flu or epidemic. If we could imagine a situation where the flu season of 2019 would have been more severe, there would have been fewer fragile elderly people alive in Sweden, so the 2020 covid-19 pandemic would have taken fewer lives.
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Old Sep 19, 20, 1:21 am
  #1134  
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The results of the Umea University mass testing of staff and students is in. A total of 9,907 people were tested, and only 6 of them had an active virus infection. That's 0.06%. Two thirds were students, and one third was staff, meaning that a huge chunk of the people tested were young adults that had been social active during the summer and initial week's of the fall.

As 0.06% is not an "exceptionally large proportion of the population," we can conclude that the pandemic is over in Sweden.
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Old Sep 19, 20, 1:49 am
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Sweden has had a sligt uptick in ICU cases, and still keep a higher number of ICU cases than Denmark, also the running reporting of fatalities in Sweden is still higher than Denmark, despite the surge in cases in Denmark. Which would be interesting underlying trends to understand.

Having just been to Copenhagen, I can see where the surge is coming from. No one seems to care about any level of precautions for anything. Even the most basic things.
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Old Sep 19, 20, 8:01 am
  #1136  
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150'000 people in Sweden now have had chronic covid-19 symptoms for more than 8 weeks (source: novus). That is approx 15% of those who were infected, estimating a million of infections with ifr 0.6% from almost 6000 deaths.Can Europe afford an army of people with chronic disease?
Result of study to be published by Irene Tosetti.
As for the pandemic is over, cases are increasing again. Although to be noted that testing is currently increasing. Hence the decrease of the last weeks was also due to a decrease in testing.
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Old Sep 19, 20, 9:06 am
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Originally Posted by RedChili View Post
As 0.06% is not an "exceptionally large proportion of the population," we can conclude that the pandemic is over in Sweden.
The other possible conclusion is that hasn't even started yet. Long time to herd immunity...

I didn't see any notice about how many had anti-bodies?
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Old Sep 19, 20, 2:04 pm
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Originally Posted by Fredrik74 View Post
I didn't see any notice about how many had anti-bodies?
They only conducted a PCR test for active viruses.
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Old Sep 19, 20, 4:26 pm
  #1139  
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The more closely I examine Tegnell's words, the more confirmation I find that Tegnell is more willing to play propagandist for Sweden's official coronavirus response than he is willing to be open, honest and faithful to where the evidence leads -- even and especially when the evidence leads to conclusions that are inconvenient and not laudatory to the Swedish coronavirus situation of his making.
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Last edited by GUWonder; Sep 20, 20 at 3:08 am
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Old Sep 20, 20, 1:54 am
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For those that have access to the Danish newspaper Politiken, there is an interesting interview with Tegnell today. In the PS section.
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