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Coronavirus in Sweden

Coronavirus in Sweden

Old May 22, 20, 7:55 pm
  #466  
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Originally Posted by RedChili View Post
The Italian story is really horrifying. "She was informed that Michaela had been put on oxygen and given morphine." Morphine makes it harder to breathe. What's the point of putting somebody on oxygen, and at the same time giving them something that makes it harder to breathe?
Morphine (and other opioids) is a common treatment for "air hunger." Basically, what's happening before the morphine is that the person is breathing, but they're not getting enough oxygen in their blood because their lungs are damaged. This results in the accumulation of lactic acid as cells don't get the oxygen they need to fuel themselves (and so they revert to anaerobic metabolism, of which lactic acid is a byproduct). The brain senses this acidity and sends signals to the body to breathe more quickly, with the ultimate aim being to get more oxygen (and blow off carbon dioxide, which sort of acts as an acid in the blood). Unfortunately, that doesn't work because, again, the lungs are injured. So the person exerts a lot of effort trying to breathe, but it doesn't do all that much, and they'll eventually tire out the muscles helping with respiration. If you give them supplemental oxygen, it'll help a lot (because whereas room air is 21% oxygen, we can put higher oxygen quantities through cannulae etc, resulting in greater oxygenation of the blood), but it won't fully solve the problem (because some blood will continue to flow to areas which are too damaged to receive that oxygen), and they'll still tire out those muscles. If you give them morphine in small doses, it will act on the respiratory centers in the brain to decrease their need to breathe at such a high rate, and it'll avoid them tiring out their muscles + alleviate the psychological burden of having the mismatch between oxygen supply and demand.
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Old Yesterday, 1:37 am
  #467  
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Originally Posted by CPH-Flyer View Post
Because after spending January and February, and every major outbreak of strange infections diseases over the last many years, being told that such a thing could not happen in Norway [feel free to insert any European country name instead], it might take somewhat of a punch in the gut to make people react and follow the rules. Get them to accept that it did happen in Norway. The lockdown has been that punch in the gut, and the Norwegians now get it.

Would the point have come through without the lockdown, and the situation developed well? Maybe, maybe not. To be honest, I think not, or at least way too slowly, and then it could have exploded to UK conditions.
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In my opinion, you're putting the cart before the horse. In the end of February and beginning of March, many Norwegians came home from their skiing holidays in Italy and Austria, and they saw on telly what disastrous scenes were being played out in Italian hospitals. That fear was the reason why they welcomed the lockdown. The lockdown didn't cause people to fear covid-19. It was the other way around.

FHI has always believed that most of the lockdown measures had little or no effect on how the virus spread. Norway would never have experienced what the UK has seen, because of vast differences within the population of those countries.

Originally Posted by CPH-Flyer View Post
Undoubtedly there is not enough immunity to matter yet, depending on the source you read, you need 70 to 90 percent of the population with antibodies for it matter. And undoubtedly there are more active cases in Sweden than in the other countries.
You probably need 60-80 percent immunity to stop the domestic spreading of the virus, but that's irrelevant. Norway and Denmark are nowhere near any of those numbers. The thing is that an immune tourist is the "ideal" tourist, because an immune tourist can't infect others or be infected. And Sweden has a far higher proportion of "ideal" tourists in their population.

Originally Posted by pewpew View Post
If you give them morphine in small doses, it will act on the respiratory centers in the brain to decrease their need to breathe at such a high rate, and it'll avoid them tiring out their muscles + alleviate the psychological burden of having the mismatch between oxygen supply and demand.
Great explanation! Thanks!
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Old Yesterday, 2:33 am
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Originally Posted by RedChili View Post
In my opinion, you're putting the cart before the horse. In the end of February and beginning of March, many Norwegians came home from their skiing holidays in Italy and Austria, and they saw on telly what disastrous scenes were being played out in Italian hospitals. That fear was the reason why they welcomed the lockdown. The lockdown didn't cause people to fear covid-19. It was the other way around.

FHI has always believed that most of the lockdown measures had little or no effect on how the virus spread. Norway would never have experienced what the UK has seen, because of vast differences within the population of those countries.



You probably need 60-80 percent immunity to stop the domestic spreading of the virus, but that's irrelevant. Norway and Denmark are nowhere near any of those numbers. The thing is that an immune tourist is the "ideal" tourist, because an immune tourist can't infect others or be infected. And Sweden has a far higher proportion of "ideal" tourists in their population.



Great explanation! Thanks!
An immune tourist is potentially an ideal tourist, but there is still way to few ideal tourists in Sweden for that to matter. What did the latest test show? 7 percent or so? A far cry from something that makes a difference.

As for behaviour and reaction. It is impossible to know now, and it will only be our beliefs based on the reactions of people we know and have talked to, and observations of society in Scandinavia. Based on my observations, I'd say it would not have ended well without the lockdown.

Until less than a week before the lockdown you had the authorities saying this can't happen here. Yet it did in many places. Changing the message to "This will happen here, you have to take care while going about your business as normal" would have had a high risk of leading to a UK style outbreak. In my view.

Last edited by CPH-Flyer; Yesterday at 2:48 am Reason: Typos
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Old Yesterday, 3:00 am
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Originally Posted by CPH-Flyer View Post
An immune tourist is potentially an ideal tourist, but there is still way to few ideal tourists in Sweden for that to matter. What did the latest test show? 7 percent or so? A far cry from something that makes a difference.

As for behaviour and reaction. It is impossible to know now, and it will only be our beliefs based on the reactions of people we know and have talked to, and observations of society in Scandinavia. Based on my observations, I'd say it would not have ended well without the lockdown.

Until less than a week before the lockdown you had the authorities saying this can't happen here. Yet it did in many places. Changing the message to "This will happen here, you have to take care while going about your business as normal" would have had a high risk of leading to a UK style outbreak. In my view.
The latest immunity test results that were reported were about 7 percent, but those results reflect the situation from about a month ago. They did those tests two weeks ago, and it takes about 2-3 weeks to develop antibodies.
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Old Yesterday, 3:12 am
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Originally Posted by RedChili View Post
The latest immunity test results that were reported were about 7 percent, but those results reflect the situation from about a month ago. They did those tests two weeks ago, and it takes about 2-3 weeks to develop antibodies.
Even saying it doubled in the two weeks since the tests were taken, assuming that infections run pretty unchecked in Sweden, you are still not close to a number that really matters in this context.

The only reason for the number of people with antibodies to grow exponentially, is if the infections in Sweden is growing exponentially. And while the number of infections seems to grow at a disturbing rate, it is not at an exponential rate.
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Old Yesterday, 3:28 am
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By the way, the "spike" in Korea really turned out to be a nothing burger. Night clubs does seem to be back in business. At least you can reserve tables for today at the trendy ones.

Their track and trace seems to have worked for the containment of the cluster.

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