February/March - worst months for upgrades?
 

Given my experiences this month, I was wondering if anyone else feels Feb/Mar are the two worst months of the year for successfully getting upgraded. My thought is that all the folks who didn't attain FF status in 1998 are rushing to use up their remaining upgrade certs. and that the new packages distributed by most of the airlines mean there will be a lot of new (complimentary) certs. floating around. Those who travel somewhat frequently (enough to make the first status level in a FF program) but won't pay the extra $$ for upgrading will be trying to use their freebie certs either this month or next. I suppose this may not be a problem for those who have the top tier status. Any thoughts?

I think you're right. I've been on about 2 dozen flights so far this year, and I've yet to see United completely clear an upgrade list yet.

I have been on 15 flights this year and everyone was upgraded (all Air Canada). In some, I was the only (or one of two or three) Executive Class passenger. Guess we are still not as overbooked in Canada as U.S. flights.

I've been on in excess of 12 flights this year on Delta Air Lines. I was upgraded on all of these. Five of these upgrades were lucky because I was travelling stand-by on earlier flights - so I would have been glad to have just gotten on the plane ... Admittedly, I'm more likely to be upgraded because I fly on routes with frequent flights and widebodied planes like Atlanta --> Boston which has hourly flights and 767s and L1011s on a significant amount of flights!

Let me clarify my answer above. Because of my status (1K) I personally have been successful at upgrading on 100% of my requests on United. What I said is that I've yet to see a flight this year in which United completely cleared the upgrade list of everyone (lower level Premiers and General Public) who wanted an upgrade. I think MileKing is correct that there seems to be a heavier than usual amount of folks trying to use their upgrades these past 2 months.

[This message has been edited by PremEx (edited 02-21-99).]

Its hard to say if things are harder in Feb/March. I've been upgraded on all flights with United, including complimentary Shuttle upgrades.

I'm guilty! I just got back from a 4 segment flight(s) to Boston from Orange County and used upgrade certs to FC on 3 out of the 4 flights. I still have 1 left that expires in Oct. Hopefully, by then I will make Silver Elite with CO then I can stand in line with the rest of the lower elites.

I would say about 1/3 of the flights I've taken in 1999, had empty seats in First Class.

I got confirmed upgrades on two transatlantic United flights in First. But the AA flight I took from LGB to DFW today was full up front.

generally, upgrade certificates are limited by carriers if bookings look strong. in the case of CO, they are next to impossible to use (and that situation will probably continue when it goes "certificate-less"). the real problem is that unless you are in the top category (chairman's, 1K, platinum, etc.) the airlines are just not making the inventory available. this means you are having to do the thing at the gate, and that is often based on what tme you get there. sometimes you just can't be early for a departure. I am chairman's preferred on US and do well on upgrading. my wife holds only preferred status with them. when she recently tried to upgrade 24 hours in advance by phone, she was told no seats available in F. I looked in a computer program I have which shows seat inventory, and they had 5 of 12 still unsold!

Of 12 flights so far this year:

3 upgraded with miles, 1st class full
5 upgraded with certs: 2 1st was full 3 flights with 2 or 3 empty 1st seats (on narrow-bodies)
2 not upgraded due to "gallentry," but plenty of empty C class seats on 777s.
1 not upgraded due to 9C seat selection on red-eye, but seats in 1st were available
1 did not clear cert upgrade list

So I'd say solely from my experiences (on both short-hop domestic and one trans-atlantic), that upgrades have been plentiful and even open 1st seats more flights than ususal!

However, your logic would seem to make sense that many non-requalifiers are taking a last gasp, and that people are using the comped certs from requalifications...maybe I've just been lucky...

I would have thought that the worst months for upgrades would be between June and September (people flying for summer vacations) and the Thanksgiving to New Year's holiday crush.

But Matt and others make good points: those trying to requalify and those trying to use those final upgrade certificates.

One more reason why feb/march difficult for upgrades: It's spring break and the college students and their teachers are trying to get away and the smart ones want to do it in first class.

This may be a minor reason but certain flights to the "college break" destinations are very very booked. CATMAN

So far this month I'm 4 for 4 as far as upgrades. EWR-ATL-AWR the weekend of the 6th and PHL-PHX-PHL. The first on CO and the second on HP. I do admit though, I usually show up an hour early and use the certs at the airport.

As I am sitting in the LGA Admirals club, trying to go standby in First Class (I am booked and confirmed in 1st on the 540pm flight and would to go earlier), I can tell you that American's 1st class seats are booked solid. It could be the new electronic system.

This situation aside, I am 10 for 10 on upgrades so far this year (knock on wood)

--Jim

On 2/22 UA #209 BWI to LAX checked in at RCC and was told their were 9 people on the upgrade list, five of them including me 1K and 5 seats available. The flight is on an A320 so only 12 FC seats. All the 1Ks cleared the list. When I looked at the manifest there were 6 1Ks, 2 Premier, 3 PE and one no status. There were a boatload of PEs in coach.