2009 - The Year of Burning Miles/Points
 

Mr Canuck and I are down to one income (hopefully not for too long). Yes, we're willing to make budget cuts in our daily food/restaurant, clothing and entertainment budgets, but we like to enjoy some splurges when we travel, and we still want to travel in 2009. So far, however, I've been able to use points and miles for bookings, so the year is shaping up fairly well, with limited cash expenditures required.

- Italy in April: (1) BA Club World seats booked during the reward seat sale (50% off miles required). The exorbitant fees were paid for in 2008, so the flights feel "free" from a 2009 budget perspective :) (2) We're spending 4 nights at the Hilton in Venice (Hilton Amex award special), where we'll celebrate a milestone birthday and our anniversary, and one night at the Marriott Flora in Rome (a bit spendy from a points perspective at 35,000 points, but booked before the redemption rate goes up to a Cat 8 40,000), plus 4 nights (but only $300) to share a villa with friends in Umbria. (3) Cash will be needed for meals, trains and possibly a rental car, but hopefully we can stock up on breakfast and lounge snacks in the hotels where we're staying.

- Long weekend dive holiday/course in Florida in spring/summer: (1) Will use Continental $500 coupon (received for a messed-up flight) - must be used before June 30/08. (2) No hotel booked yet, but plan to use either Hilton or Marriott points, and/or some Marriott gift cards I received for redeeming Thank You Points. (3) Cash will be needed for the rental car and diving, of course, but we may be able to score some free meals through my Gold status with Hilton and Marriott.

- Egypt in October: (1) BA Club World seats booked during the reward sale, with fees paid in 2008. (2) 3 nights at Cairo Marriott for 55,000 points. (3) 5 nights at the Sheraton Al Gouna (using points, including 10,000 to be received for my new Starwood Amex). (3) We'll probably spend some $ on a hotel for a few nights, depending on the relative value of hotel cash rates versus points rates. I've heard that Egypt hotels usually are a good place to pay $ rather than points but it seems that hotel rates are a little high at the time of year were planning to be there (shortly after the end of Ramadan). It might be a good time to use my Marriott Cat 5 one-night stay certificate (comes with my Marriott Visa). (4) We'll have to spend $ for diving, transportation and meals.

I'm hoping we'll be able to have relatively luxurious holidays but still keep our expenditures below $3600 for the year (it would be a lot less if I could figure out how to pay for diving with points or miles ...).

How about others? Are you facing a shrunken travel budget for 2009 and, if so, are you travelling less, spending less when you travel, or using points/miles?

We are planning to do a reward ticket to NRT to visit our friend in the army there. He said we can stay on the base hotel for about $25-40/night. This should be a relatively inexpensive trip! No other plans though except maybe a reward ticket on US somewhere. Definitely using miles not $$.

In theory considering the falling hotel and airfare prices and rising dollar 2009 should be a point/mile earning not burning year.

The same Hilton Venice mentioned by OP was going for $350+ 18 months ago when I spent my points there but it's $150-200 right now.

For the same reason now is a great time to buy a car, invest in stocks etc etc

Of course if one's personal travel (or any other) budget is non-existent the point is moot.

You're right. It's certainly a tough call. I could book the Hilton in Venice for 192 euros per night during Hilton's 50% off sale, which is a better value than using points right now - but I think I'd rather a) continue investing for retirement AND b) take a holiday, so points it is.

I'm planning on redeeming miles for J travel to both NRT and LHR this summer on AA. However, it already looks like inventory is getting tight, particularly for LHR

Great plan! Sounds like you're going to have a couple of dream vacations for a bargain.

For my wife and I, 2008 was the year of burning miles. We used up about 500k of my NW miles and about 150k of her CO miles on biz class tickets to Greece, Kenya, Turkey, and Morocco. We didn't use our Hilton points in each place since we wanted to stay in some smaller, more intimate places, but I think 2009 will be the year of requalifying as elites on the airlines and burning through the Hilton points for our stays where possible.

Happy travels!

peace,
~Ben~

Really your title should be "2008" not "2009" as would have made far more sense to burn miles (as you did) by booking before the large increases in award chart requirements and upgrade co-pays on UA, AA and DL.

At this point the increases are all effective (exception: UA's upgrade changes don't take effect until 7/01) and the mileage requirements are unlikely to increase again for another year or two. So there is no rush to redeem anymore.

In some sense 2009 may be a better year to buy tickets (assuming you have the money) rather than use miles, as there will be many sales due to shrinking demand. Whereas in 2008, prices were very high so using miles was a sound proposition.

I wish I could have cashed in some miles (and briefly sketched out a couple of nice itineraries) but family obiligations will preclude the types of international trips that would have been the best use of miles under the old award charts, so I have nothing planned.

I thought at the time in 2008 it was a great time to redeem, as rising oil prices represented an existential threat to the airlines (and/or mileage), so I burned a lot.

Late in 2008, I thought 2009 would be a good year to earn, as that trend had reversed, and I was a Plat on NW, which did not at the time seem doomed (I know, I should have expected the worst)

NW has made enough changes in several weeks that many, even Plats, are seriously contemplating giving up on the game -- or at least giving up on the game of optimizing. I'll still use what I get, but I will no longer make any decisions that require long-term assumptions, like making effort/sacrifices to reach the next elite tier, just for the option value of it, getting a club membership for more than one year, etc.

Unfortunately, this could lead to a vicous cycle -- if everyone decides that elite benefits aren't worth going to the extra effort and instead will choose primarily price/schedule, that will only make the airlines think they were justified and go farther.

I'm also curious to know if anyone has redeemed miles or hotel points for car rentals, and whether doing so can provide a decent value. We'd like to rent a car for a couple of days in Italy and also for 4-5 days in Florida.

Will the falling value of DL/NW miles, which are becoming the Zimbabwe dollars of the sky, it is a time to BURN BABY BURN if you have the misfortune to be holding them. On other programs, earning may be a better bet.

I've spent my UA miles down to last 10K odd miles thanks to devaluation of the mileage program.

Booked 3x N.Asia to Aussieland in C for 75K miles.
Booked 1x NZ to India in F for 80K miles.
Booked 1x N.Asia to US in Y for 60K miles.

I burnt away my PC points on point breaks. ;)

Still have loads of HH points... and I need to think the best way to get rid of this. I have been saving these points for a four night Maldives get away, but I can't seem to find a time and award flights for this.

Have about 30K SPG points (spent 30K already), but SPG points are relatively easier to spend. So, I am not so worried.

I don't think that hotel points are at the same immediate risk of devaluation. I'm still comfortable saving mine and using them when I can rather than going into find-a-way-to-burn-them-before-they-lose-their-value mode the way I was with my NW miles.

peace,
~Ben~

HH points probably won't be devalued further in 2009 (wasn't there a devaluation in 07 or 08?). Marriott MR program changes, which take effect on Jan 15/09, are being perceived by a number of members as a devaluation, even though Marriott is introducing a few benefits (eg no/limited blackout dates). So, I would say that if your favourite hotel program's points haven't been devalued in the last 24 months, you're due for a devaluation.

I think it was SPG that had a big devaluation in 07. HHonors hasn't had one that I know of (or that has impacted me) since I joined up in 2005. So maybe we're due! :eek:

I try to use them when I can, but we earn em faster than we can burn em (I even put my car down payment through the HHonors AmEx). I love staying at Hiltons, but maybe one out of every three or four vacations -- the rest of my trips are to odd parts of the world without a Hilton, or I don't want to stay way out in the business district instead of the historic center, etc.

I think this year, we'll go for the Conrad in the Maldives or to the Seychelles depending on airfares to burn about 200k of them for a week. I was hoping to use them for something like the Egypt package they used to have, but it isn't offered anymore.

peace,
~Ben~

If you are flat broke - you won't be able to afford any decent fly/car/hotel vacation - so I am assuming you are in better shape. So, I suggest:

Hotels - don't waste miles. Stay in a cheaper place, look around for a good deal or find some old friends.

Car - go to a place that you won't need one

Air - If you have a destination in your mind that is rarely discounted (like DXB) - use miles. If not, take advantage of the great deals that are out there (and more coming with $37 oil).

If congress had allowed people to pay off their sub-prime mortgages with miles, we would not need any bailouts. Banks would be happy, airlines would clear up a 25 year old problem and hedge fund managers would have a new instrument to invest in as mileage futures began trading.