Newbie asks: Most viable US-based airline?
 

Hi,
I've been accruing miles mostly on UA though I want to start branching out to other programs just in case. I find UA and AA to be the most appealing programs in terms of networks and prices (flights to Asia/Europe).

I want to really start honing in on an airline (I have mileage in almost every major airline) and have been looking for articles regarding the financial viability of each airline (though I will probably still accrue some on UA for a nice reward). Anyone know of such?

Based on the subject line I think WN is the most viable ;-)

Based on the text of your message you might want to look at NW. They have a decent route structure to Asia and Europe -- particularly when you count their KLM partnership.

Southwest (ticker symbol: LUV) is IMHO the best airline from a financial-viability perspective. I don't trade airline stox directly or anything, but I know they tend to do something really wierd that no one else does: they turn a profit.

Do your own due diligence of course...

Jetblue is also turning a profit, and expanding rapidly. If I lived in NYC, their main hub, I would look really hard at them as a second carrier. They have nice in flight entertainment. I think your home airport should be key in deciding which airline to fly. Do you like to fly out of EWR? LGA? JFK?

Of the majors, supposedly Delta is in the best financial shape, but many of their frequent fliers have been fleeing because of recent changes to the program.

Look at their quarterly profits/losses and make a decision.

Southwest and JetBlue made money last quarter.

For the majors, CO lost $30-some million, and NW lost $40-some million.

AA/UA/DL all lost several hundred million $.

So, from a viability perspective, NW probably had the least damage (lowest loss for its size), plus it owns a lot of its (old) aircraft.

Obviously you'll have to make your own decisions, but if I lived in NYC and was in your shoes and wanted a major, I'd leverage the NW/CO partnership and put my miles in NW and fly either NW or CO (using CO's EWR strength for non-stops).

NW isn't a bad choice. You can use CO for some east coast travel and DTW isn't far away anyway. The alliance with KLM is good for travel to Europe, within Europe, and to Africa. Their Asia network is great.

Alaska Airlines also was profitable last quarter. Although you probably would not fly them a whole lot based on the east coast, you can accrue miles by flying NW, CO and AA. They also partner with BA, Qantas, Lan Chile and Hawaiian. Rumor has it that Cathay Pacific will soon be a partner.

1) Southwest
2) Alaska
3) Northwest

Alaska and Northwest have a lucrative agreement. NW relies heavily on AK to provide feed for its SEA/SFO/LAX - NRT flights. I highly doubt AK would parter with Cathay Pacific.

Please visit the AS board; an insider has offered this information.

Thanks everyone!
My airport preferences are:
1. LGA
2. JFK
3. EWR (it's a pain from my part of NYC)

From everyone's replies, I think I'll make CO my secondary airline ; I have about 26k in there but 16k in NW that may remain unused(as I mentioned, I'll take UA for as long as I can and then spend the rewards).

How about AA though? They have the CX alliance. They've also had awesome last minute deals to NRT ($409 once last year!). Or are they bleeding too much financially that chap. 11 doesn't seem too far behind? Are there airline industry sites/newsletters online?

Thanks again, this forum is awesome! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif

Hmm, actually make NW my second carrier of choice. People seem to be blasting CO on the CO forum. I guess I'll have to cash in the CO mileage soon then.

The problem with all the speculation that you've seen here is that it ignores one major factor -- the economy. When it comes to airlines, it's like what Clinton said. "It's the economy, stupid."

The airline industry is a cyclical one. Before you listen to the "experts" who are predicting that all the traditional airlines are doomed, remember that just a few years ago they were talking about how the business cycle had been killed and that airlines would see profits as far as the eye could see.

Also keep in mind that one analyst said that he saw UAL stock becoming worthless by the end of the year, but he kept his underweight recommendation on it instead of putting a sell on it.

If you want to believe those people, it's a free country, and you're more than welcome to do so. However, keep in mind that their track record is very suspect.

I'd ignore all that. Whatever airline forum you look at you'll see that particular airline being blasted.

Given where UA stands, AA will survive no matter what and their NYC coverage is by far the best...the service though not perfect is very good.