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-   -   The End is Near (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/milesbuzz/724137-end-near.html)

UAL_Rulez Aug 12, 2007 6:50 am


Originally Posted by eyechip (Post 8215452)
I said "In" not "On" Regardless, I thank you for reading some of my words. If not all.

Perhaps though you would consider commenting on something more relevant rather than completely arbitrary. But your being from St Louis leads me to assume that you wish to spout your great knowledge of a city based upon horse and buggy rides around Central Park. Were you wearing your Nikes and shorts?

I read the whole OP. It's a whining lot of nonsense IMHO, as several other posters have pointed out above.

And I work about 200 days a year in NYC (and have done for years).

Have a nice day. :p

michaelr Aug 12, 2007 7:20 am

Eyechip, I, for one, thought your post was not only funny but also relevant. I travel 80 nights worth a year, yet the vast majority of my points and miles come from credit cards - one way or another.

Martinis at 8 Aug 12, 2007 8:17 am

eyechip,

Color me rich. It's great to be me, it sucks to be you! :D

Now go make something of yourself, quit the whining & sniveling, and you too can join us elite snobs.

Toodles,

M8

DCBob Aug 12, 2007 9:11 am


Originally Posted by eyechip (Post 8211750)
The end is near....All this and they are flying for free. Because they can. Because they rack up 500,000 miles a year in affinity credit card charges. And could care less about paying the excess miles for “anytime” (extortion) awards.... YADA YADA YADA

Very well written work of fiction from a poor soul who, like me, lives inside the Beltway. Please show some compassion, fellow Flyertalkers! You have no idea what it is like to have to live here, which is why we are always flying away from DC. :p

bigguyinpasadena Aug 12, 2007 11:44 am


Originally Posted by alanh (Post 8215951)
So I said, "Friend, can I have your shoes?":D

HAH!LOL(very bad of me to laugh at a joke about such things mea culpa)

pinniped Aug 12, 2007 12:28 pm

How about a contrary opinion, just because it's Sunday and I'm bored: I, for one, am thoroughly unexcited by the Virgin America FF program. Don't get me wrong: there are aspects of the product itself that sound interesting, and I hope VA is successful enough that they force other airlines to compete with them. But a program that has reduced itself to a straight-rebate type of program becomes less interesting and has fewer opportunities to maximize advantage for people like us, who pay attention to the various nuances of FF programs.

Plus, I don't see anything yet showing how (or if) VA links into the bigger Virgin program. To me, the big hook to flying Virgin America would be to score one of those sweet Upper Class tix to Europe. But if the programs aren't linked, then VA becomes more of a niche program like JetBlue or Southwest. Programs like that have their niche and their valid purpose - but neither is going to lure me away from Star or Oneworld.

Go ahead and flame me...I realize the rest of the FF universe is wholeheartedly geeked about Virgin America. Like I said, I'm glad the airline itself exists and is flying some key routes in the U.S., but I am not yet 100% sold on the FF program. (Although this didn't stop me from signing up the day the website went online. :))

Kiwi Flyer Aug 12, 2007 1:14 pm

pinniped - have you checked out Virgin Blue's Velocity program? While linked to revenue, that is not a straight rebate program. I think eleVAte will be similar.

kanebear Aug 12, 2007 3:54 pm

No, the ones you should be mad at are people like me.... who pay for tickets in J/F... and earn miles and status on them... for less than you pay for coach. ;) The truly wealthy are a diverse lot. Some don't know about points and miles, don't use credit cards, and buy the cheapest coach ticket they can get. Others buy J&F and don't care. Still more have their own planes and don't care. Regardless, they're all too busy earning money to fool with mileage redemption vagaries.

wanaflyforless Aug 13, 2007 2:45 pm


Originally Posted by eyechip (Post 8211860)
Very impressive! I bet a good deal of those were affinity card miles. Thus, you win the award as being part of the #1 group on my list.

Not so fast.

Here is a stat from one of my many airline accounts. I signed up with AA in 2000. I passed the 2 million mark with AA in January.

Not one AA mile was earned from credit card spending.

I have redeemed almost all of my AA miles. Always at the saver level. Often for peak travel dates.

You probably make more money than I do.

KNOWLEDGE MAKES A DIFFERENCE.

- How to earn way more miles.
- How to find availability yourself before picking up the phone.
- What are all of the airlines/routes/connection possibilities I should check.

FT has been the primary source of my airline savvy.

Spending more time here is a good time investment if you care about your FF miles.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By the way:
1) I would have to fly more than twice the trips on Virgin America than on UA/AA to get the same value back.
2) I would have to spend more than twice the $ on Virgin America versus AA/UA to get the same value back.

Status bonuses, promos, an in depth understanding of airline pricing allowing me to fly legacy airlines cheap, and knowing where the best rewards are and how to find the seats all contribute to this.

For someone who has invested enough time to really understand how to get the most from the legacy system, flying Virgin would be a stupid decision from a program standpoint. The product, on the other hand, might justify a loosing FF program.

pinniped Aug 13, 2007 4:23 pm


Originally Posted by Kiwi Flyer (Post 8218406)
pinniped - have you checked out Virgin Blue's Velocity program? While linked to revenue, that is not a straight rebate program. I think eleVAte will be similar.

No, I haven't.

Perhaps I should hold out higher hope for Elevate. For one, because Virgin America can connect you to Virgin Atlantic, there's a possibility that they'll integrate those rewards into the program. Plus, maybe this is a bit of a longer reach, but now that Virgin is building a bit of a critical mass, maybe they'll even roll in Virgin Blue as well. (Still not sure how they'd get me to Australia to take advantage of awards there. :))

And finally, if they can manage to keep the revenue element at least one layer below the surface - leaving opportunities for folks to redeem cool global awards without having to be in the top few percent spending-wise - then I can see some possibilities. After all, the hotel programs have been successful with this model. The earning side is somewhat tied to revenue, but the redemption side is a bit looser. And there are still promotions to take advantage of...

So I won't bury VA yet. I just want to see 'em flesh it out a bit... :)

itsme Aug 13, 2007 8:34 pm

wanaflyforless, the most commonly used metric for MRs is cpm, whether that is cents per EQM or cents per RDM. Little attention focuses on what is for some of us another important metric, that is EQM (or RDM) earned per hour of our time (efficiency). Do you weigh this metric when undertaking an MR, and if so, what do you set for yourself as a reasonable goal, e.g., 7.5K EQM in 24 hours, or 15K in that amount of time?

Marathon Man Aug 13, 2007 9:29 pm

I do 90%+ of my awared travel based on the use of cards and promos from the airlines. And if there's a scheme, I'm usually on it to grab more miles and feel all cool about it! :D I wrote in a few places in here how I think that's actually harder than being a business traveler who does not pay for the tickets but does get status and many miles for flights. They pay with their souls, though, because they must fly to survive and never see their own home for long periods of time. I do what I can to avoid paying marked up fees on miles and I HATE all fees of late that airlines charge to eat into my "free" travel. I spend a lot on credit cards. That's loyalty but it gets you not so far with the airlines because, well, they only get a small portion of that revenue, as it is often split amongst several partners involved in the process of giving me my one mile per $ spent, etc.

I dont really care what class of service I sit in the plane, but I do wish economy was not HORRIBLE, just normal. These days it can be horrible at times. Eatible food and water and coffee should be served for free in paid or award flights to everyone forced to breathe in recycled air for more than 90 mins. Period.

:)MM

Kiwi Flyer Aug 13, 2007 10:43 pm


Originally Posted by pinniped (Post 8224945)
No, I haven't.

Perhaps I should hold out higher hope for Elevate. For one, because Virgin America can connect you to Virgin Atlantic, there's a possibility that they'll integrate those rewards into the program. Plus, maybe this is a bit of a longer reach, but now that Virgin is building a bit of a critical mass, maybe they'll even roll in Virgin Blue as well. (Still not sure how they'd get me to Australia to take advantage of awards there. :))

Virgin Blue's subsidiary V Australia will fly between Australia and USA (and maybe elsewhere later). They are getting new longhaul a/c to do this.

wanaflyforless Aug 13, 2007 10:49 pm


Originally Posted by itsme (Post 8226284)
wanaflyforless, the most commonly used metric for MRs is cpm, whether that is cents per EQM or cents per RDM. Little attention focuses on what is for some of us another important metric, that is EQM (or RDM) earned per hour of our time (efficiency). Do you weigh this metric when undertaking an MR, and if so, what do you set for yourself as a reasonable goal, e.g., 7.5K EQM in 24 hours, or 15K in that amount of time?

I'm not sure how this thread relates to mileage runs, but: Yes, efficiency is a primary factor in planning MRs for me. RDM is my primary metric (EQM is mostly good for the ego!) and I would measure per day, not per hour, as I generally spend days in a row MRing. The RDM possible per day can be very different than per hour depending on schedules and length and comfort of the flights for sleep along the way. Other factors include if this is a product I like or want to try or would the trip be exciting. How much are the positioning costs, food costs (often minimal for me because I get enough food on my long flights), and hotel costs (again often free for me). A low cost per RDM alone does not make me want to do a MR; efficiency and a like of those flights has to be there. Earning multipliers are my friend!

I often earn 20K or 30K RDM per day.

Kiwi Flyer Aug 13, 2007 11:01 pm

I'm nowhere near as efficient as wannaflyforless but will often trade off a worse cost per mile in order to earn double or more miles within a day.

Jailer Aug 13, 2007 11:49 pm


Originally Posted by eyechip (Post 8211750)
The end is near.

If the sky is falling I better use up some of my affinity miles quick ‘cause AA won’t be able to fly in a vacuum.

btw, really well written and entertaining post, although it gores my ox.

Jailer Aug 14, 2007 12:11 am

Of course, eyechip couldn't be talking about me...most my credit card spending goes to *wood and Hilton.

pinniped Aug 14, 2007 7:41 am


Originally Posted by Jailer (Post 8227124)
Of course, eyechip couldn't be talking about me...most my credit card spending goes to *wood and Hilton.

See, you further prove eyechip's point!! Even if he manages to luck his way into the last award seat in a cabin full of wealthy fat-cat airline credit card users, he's gonna have nowhere to stay when he arrives because of all the SPG Amex users filling the hotels! :p :D

Well, at least he can sleep in his rental car. There is no Hertz Amex that I'm aware of. ;)

Jailer Aug 14, 2007 8:43 am


Originally Posted by pinniped (Post 8228233)
See, you further prove eyechip's point!! Even if he manages to luck his way into the last award seat in a cabin full of wealthy fat-cat airline credit card users, he's gonna have nowhere to stay when he arrives because of all the SPG Amex users filling the hotels! :p :D

Well, at least he can sleep in his rental car. There is no Hertz Amex that I'm aware of. ;)

I recall getting the last car.

Better not mention Idine/Rewards Dining; not only are the fat cats getting fatter, but expense account paid gluttony pays ten miles per dollar while at the trough.

monitor Aug 14, 2007 9:27 am


Originally Posted by Jailer (Post 8228609)
I recall getting the last car....

And I recall getting upgraded to the last first class seat on an airline that would never have given me status unless I had in my pocket the super-top-of-the-line unavailable-to-the-OP-at-any-reasonable-cost credit card.

Seems to me I also recall something similar about the last hotel room upgrade available to the concierge level.

beaubo Aug 14, 2007 6:29 pm


Originally Posted by wanaflyforless (Post 8226855)
I often earn 20K or 30K RDM per day.

So, you're not feeling like talking about the 70K RDMs per day??????!!!!!!!;)

steve32 Aug 14, 2007 8:11 pm

Racked up nearly a million miles in 16 months at about a penny a mile, and leave in 28 days on business class awards around the Pacific Rim, taking my parental units with. (oneworld awards, which are better than the MilesAAver rate) :cool:

But I see you are with United, so I suppose that explains a lot right there. :rolleyes:

Steve

Marathon Man Aug 14, 2007 8:25 pm


Originally Posted by steve32 (Post 8232929)
Racked up nearly a million miles in 16 months at about a penny a mile, and leave in 28 days on business class awards around the Pacific Rim, taking my parental units with. (oneworld awards, which are better than the MilesAAver rate) :cool:

But I see you are with United, so I suppose that explains a lot right there. :rolleyes:

Steve

what, you couldnt score award seats in FC?
:D:D:D

beaubo Aug 14, 2007 8:50 pm

Well, one man's cynicism/frustration (OP), is another man's benefit in having less competition for award seats (THIS poster!!).

The sentiments echoed by the OP are quite common these days from folks I'm acquained with. Instead of the perceived crapshoot of a capacity controlled, extra tax/fee laden airline ticket, these folks are opting for the guaranteed, no strings benefit like free gas or a 2% cash rebate or the Capitol One 'free' airline tickets (which is attractive for its simplicity, its surety, even though not such a good value!!).

So, as the mileage herd is being self-culled, there will be less warm bodies pursuing mileage award seats, hopefully making those still active in the mileage game, of having an incrementally better shot at award redemption.

Like others on this thread have observed, getting intl. F and J award seats is not only possible, but actually, quite probable, with the right mix of perseverence, date and routing flexibility, access to miles in multiple programs (think Starwood Amex), some top tier elite status (or maybe friends or family with said status), willingness to buy a cheap ticket to get to and/or from a gateway hub city, splitting up a group and meeting at final destination, always pumping CSrs to check partner carriers, knowing obscure routings (think SQ JFK-FRA or QF JFK-YVR or AF LAX-PPT or MH EWR-ARN or EK JFK-HAM)...and waa-laaa, U B upfront, baby!!!!!!!!

RustyC Aug 14, 2007 10:25 pm

Compared to 7 or 8 years ago there aren't many categories of FFers that are doing better now; it's mainly degrees to which they're doing worse. Airlines have made one cut after another to service at all levels, and the two-tier awards are essentially a stealth devaluation. The future viability is threatened mainly by all the non-flying miles that are sold causing the balances to get out of whack.

People who can and do fly internationally on paid business class are still very coveted and get targeted offers, but for most other patterns you pay more and get less both in terms of miles/targeted offers and in terms of the experience on the plane.

Marathon Man Aug 14, 2007 11:07 pm


Originally Posted by RustyC (Post 8233481)
Compared to 7 or 8 years ago there aren't many categories of FFers that are doing better now; it's mainly degrees to which they're doing worse. Airlines have made one cut after another to service at all levels, and the two-tier awards are essentially a stealth devaluation. The future viability is threatened mainly by all the non-flying miles that are sold causing the balances to get out of whack.

People who can and do fly internationally on paid business class are still very coveted and get targeted offers, but for most other patterns you pay more and get less both in terms of miles/targeted offers and in terms of the experience on the plane.

a striking resemblence to many issues found in many other threads! I agree with you rusty. sad it is, eh?

pinniped Aug 15, 2007 9:17 am


Originally Posted by RustyC (Post 8233481)
Compared to 7 or 8 years ago there aren't many categories of FFers that are doing better now; it's mainly degrees to which they're doing worse. Airlines have made one cut after another to service at all levels, and the two-tier awards are essentially a stealth devaluation. The future viability is threatened mainly by all the non-flying miles that are sold causing the balances to get out of whack.

Agree with you on service - there's no question that the F/C products today aren't what they once were. Anybody who managed to save an int'l F winelist from 10 or 15 years ago can attest to that.

But on the FF side of things, I'm still getting the main components of the programs that I look for: 25k to Canada in Y, 80-120k to Europe in J or F, occasional 30-35k trip to Central America or the Caribbean. (Heck, next week we're redeeming 5 award seats to Bermuda for 20k a pop. :)) Also occasionally a 25k domestic trip, but since I live in a strong WN city, the 25k domestics don't make much sense for me because I can usually find a good airfare - even when I fly AA/UA.

In some ways, it's actually easier - because I, uhhhh, rack up a lot of points/miles from credit cards. :D And other partner sources, promotions, etc...

To date, the only times I've had to redeem the "rulebuster" award levels have been on a couple of last-minute domestic trips where the choice was a 50k award or a $1000 ticket. But I haven't done one of those in about 5 years - even last-minute tickets out of MCI on any airline tend to cap out at the WN full fare. (No surprise there...)

Having access to miles across both *A and OW definitely helps.

At some point in the next 2-3 years, we'll probably splurge and throw a lot of miles at some J seats to Asia. I know that trip will take some planning, but with flexibility I expect we'll get it one way or another.

steve32 Aug 15, 2007 3:35 pm


Originally Posted by Marathon Man
what, you couldnt score award seats in FC?
:D:D:D

Including my parents award tickets I was already burning nearly half a million miles from my account, just 8 months after I started this "game"! :eek: I didn't have more at the time, and I'm fine with International Business Class as I can't be tossing back a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue every flight, and I'm used to domestic coach (though now in exit rows) so my perspective is low enough that I should be very happy as is. :cool:

The good news is 8 months after that and my account is back up to be able to do it again already. :p

Steve

Totoro Aug 15, 2007 4:53 pm

Elite inventory
 

Originally Posted by eyechip (Post 8211750)
The end is near.

And do you really believe that they are holding an allocation of free seats for 1K’s or Platinum’s or Diamond’s or whatever bull crap name they want to give us? They are not.

I can't speak about other airlines, but Continental does hold back a few reward seats for Elites. I've seen seats available when logged into my account that are not available to general members. I would not be surprised if other legacy airlines did the same. Please be aware of facts before making unfounded allegations.

wanaflyforless Aug 15, 2007 5:54 pm


Originally Posted by Totoro (Post 8238133)
I can't speak about other airlines, but Continental does hold back a few reward seats for Elites. I've seen seats available when logged into my account that are not available to general members. I would not be surprised if other legacy airlines did the same. Please be aware of facts before making unfounded allegations.

This July I redeemed a ticket to YVR 1 day before I wanted to go. As a UA 1K, I had several options both ways on my choice dates. As a general member, there was nothing either way on my dates.

As a CO PLT, I have access to almost as many award seats as AA gives to everyone. As a CO general member, forget about high season travel on CO metal for the lower level to just about anywhere.

As an AA EXP, 9/10 of the seats available to me are also avaiallbe to everyone else. But because AA availability is generally superior, I have a very good shot at redemption, including well planned peak travel.

As a NW PLT, award avail is very good. Not so good for generarl member.

The point is that the ailrines do make a significant number of seats only available to their elites.

monitor Aug 15, 2007 9:46 pm


Originally Posted by wanaflyforless (Post 8238432)
...The point is that the ailrines do make a significant number of seats only available to their elites.

And not to the "armchair travelers who rarely fly [and] often spend...."

Does the OP actually believe that that crowd really "take[s] every free seat to everywhere you ever might want to go?"

pinniped Aug 16, 2007 8:23 am


Originally Posted by Totoro (Post 8238133)
I can't speak about other airlines, but Continental does hold back a few reward seats for Elites. I've seen seats available when logged into my account that are not available to general members. I would not be surprised if other legacy airlines did the same. Please be aware of facts before making unfounded allegations.

United has two coach award fare buckets: N available to everyone, and E available to only 1K members. (At least on United metal - other *A carriers may differ and I'm not sure if *A Golds get extra seats everywhere. I'm pretty sure they don't.)

When flights are wide open, the N and E values are typically the same. (e.g., N6 E6). When flights are very full, I see a lot of N0 E1. That's a pretty powerful 1K perk. The flight may be selling only revenue Q or U and up, yet there will still be an E1 sitting there. (Well, not always, but I do see it a lot when I'm looking at all of the fare codes...)

sosafan Aug 16, 2007 12:55 pm

Halifax?
 

Originally Posted by eyechip (Post 8211750)
The end is near.
...


Of course, there is Halifax. This is United’s token spot of free ticket availability that seems to always come up in the “we have free seats to here” chart.

Off topic, perhaps, but the OP refers extensively to Halifax. Halifax is high on my list of places that I want to visit, and we tried to get two FF tickets to Halifax over labor day and failed.

For comparison, (and for my family of 4) other failures in the last year: 2 ORD-Newfoundland, one ORD-Madrid, one ORD-Rome, one BOS-Latvia.

Successes were 2 ORD-AThens and 1 BOS-AThens, 1 ORD-Oslo; 2 ORD-DEN, 1 ORD-Jamaica, 1 ORD-ROC, 1 ORD-OAK and 2 ORD-New Zealand.

FWIW none of my miles (and only a very small fraction of family mils) come from credit cards. I know this doesn't prove anything, but at least you've increased my hopes of finding FF tickets next time I want to try to go to Halifax.

RustyC Aug 16, 2007 1:30 pm


Originally Posted by pinniped (Post 8235451)
But on the FF side of things, I'm still getting the main components of the programs that I look for: 25k to Canada in Y, 80-120k to Europe in J or F, occasional 30-35k trip to Central America or the Caribbean. (Heck, next week we're redeeming 5 award seats to Bermuda for 20k a pop. :))

I guess I have to give some credit to airlines for quietly adding Canada and Alaska to the 48 US awards. Alaska in September is a real sleeper of a destination because lots of rooms have been added in ANC and costs in ANC and FAI are much more like the lower 48 than they used to be.

bhmlurker Aug 16, 2007 2:22 pm

The real evil aren't non-freq fliers that rack up a points on credit cards. It's many people like me and others here at FT who only fly LUT fares, rack up miles, and snag saver award a year in advance, before you or the million+ banked mile rich person even thought of taking a vacation. People like me can do as much damage to seat inventory as one of OP's supposedly-rich antagonists, with only half the miles.

*cackles* Join me, and I will complete your training. With our combined strength, we can score endless numbers of saver tickets. If you only knew the power of the dAArkside! Search your feeling eyechip, you know it to be true.


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